Personal Log  #1217

May 12, 2023  -  May 18, 2023

Last Updated:  Thurs. 9/07/2023

    page #1216         page #1218         BOOK         INDEX         go to bottom     

 

5-18-2023 Quietly Advancing.  Unless it is obvious to see, with blatant intent, it doesn't count.  Enthusiasts simply don't pay attention.  This confirms that well: "But Toyota isn't really quietly advancing."  A supporter will actually listen, hearing about motor & controller efficiency and noticing the difference a heat-pump makes.  Heck, a supporter will even discuss mi/kWh values.  Enthusiasts simply don't care.  They posts talking-points and rely upon cherry-picked data.  That's why I distinguish them, stressing the importance of knowing audience.  I also post responses like this when encountering the nonsense:

People see what they want.  I saw 6 years of flawless electric-only driving.  Under a wide variety of conditions, the system delivered awesome EV driving.  Why does it matter that a gas-engine was attached for when the electricity was used up?

Looking at the challenges VW is currently dealing with, I can reflect upon how much earlier of a head start Toyota got... and the irony.  2010 was the first time I drove a plug-in Prius, a prototype for the 2012 which I ended up purchasing then later replaced with a next-gen 2017.

So what if Toyota made some configuration choices that upset enthusiasts?  It's not like those cannot be adjust.  Heck, just yesterday Bjorn tested the first set of software updates.  He saw DC charging speed hit 143 kW.

It's a narrative that Toyota isn't taking the situation seriously.  Enthusiasts get upset about taking the bottom-up approach.  They believe Tesla's top-down is the only way, that there is no other effective means to succeed.  Being an engineer who's degree minored in business, it's fascinating to witness.

Holding on to whatever perspective works for you won't change what the intended audience experiences.  That's why Prius was so successful, despite so much rhetoric from enthusiasts.  That quiet advancement is extremely effective in a market with so much noise.

5-18-2023

Doomed.  That repeated mantra of doom & gloom will never end.  If you don't follow a specific path to success, it is business suicide.  I find it so ironic to see claims like this: "At this point, it is just willful foolishness.  A few more years of it and Toyota will be doomed."  Coming from those who insist the solution must be innovative demonstrate foolishness from believing there is only a single means to win.  This is the same reason we see so many hypocritical claims.  There is an obvious absence of critical thinking.  To today's prediction of utter failure, I responded with:  It is a narrative, an effort to convince the poorly informed that Toyota has not accelerated plans for their next-gen EV platform and that their current one simply is useless for all audiences.  That "doom & gloom" portrayal of Toyota's place in the market is quite desperate. It requires paying attention to only particular information, disregarding the bigger picture.   In other words, we have enthusiasts spreading a "feel good" message so they don't have to face the challenges at hand, like how to grow beyond their own group.  That's not constructive.

5-17-2023

Deflection.  Quite annoyed by so many recent attacks on Toyota, it was time to take an offensive position: "GM is heavily investing in a new 2.5-liter 4-cyclinder turbo ICE.  Those here turning a blind-eye to that, so they can pile on Toyota, tells us the real story."  It is amazing how much GM relies upon hype.  We saw that countless times during Two-Mode, it was shocking to see Volt enthusiasts fall into the same trap.  GM would release vague information to press and those online keyboard warrior would transform it to reasons to be excited, despite lack of substance.  They would transform hope into hype.  That's why I play offense when opportunity comes up.  It is already obvious that GM will struggle to deliver.  Ultium has already been a dud.  Enthusiasts claims 4X was an epic failure for Toyota, an unrecoverable rollout.  The fact that software can be updated, addressing expectations for charge-curve, dashboard and range, is disregard.  They ignore what they don't like.  I find it quite telling.  Lyric & Hummer basically fizzled.  Equinox was not delivered as promised, delayed at least 6 months.  Odds are extremely good that battery production will remain a crawl, no way to deliver high-volume for awhile.  Cost will naturally be more than anticipated too.  That's why investment in ICE advancement continues.  GM knows it will be selling mostly vehicles without a plug... or even hybrid... for a long time to come.  That's why we are seeing deflection.  Enthusiasts want you to focus entirely on the small offering with plugs... hence me being in a defensive position for so long.  Keeping attention on Toyota prevents a close look at what GM is actually doing.  Seeing that big picture conveys a very different story.

5-14-2023

Expectations.  Remember when Prius was first rolled out?  There was also an obsession with distance.  It became quite a problem.  Some owners would try to squeeze ever last drop of gas out of the tank, driving far beyond the "empty" warning.  It was perplexing why anyone would do that?  Toyota was baffled by such blatant disregard for a refill indicator.  Those without knowledge of that history believe Toyota's response to having a large buffer is new.  Reality is it comes from real-world outcome, attempting to deliver a practical balance for everyone.  Some just plain don't care: "Even with the update, range is still going to suck and the DC fast charge is not even close to what was stated.  I own this car and it is all a lie.  Shame on Toyota."  Dealing with disenchantment is inevitable.  It comes from setting unrealistic expectations, a trap especially easy to fall into when the vehicle is new.  An unfamiliar offering leads to many assumptions.  I was quite curious what this new owner was thinking.  Did he have any idea how inaccurate WLTP estimates are or that even the better EPA estimates are still an inaccurate measure for any type of real-world outcome.  Those measures are for the sake of constructive comparison, not any type of guarantee from the automaker.  Wanting to find out, I asked:  What were your expectations?  Not being aware of how EPA estimates are derived is not Toyota's fault.  That is one of many reasons why most people wait until the second year, to hear from actual owners prior to making their decision to buy.

5-14-2023

Lobbying Efforts.  Any type of critic or question is considered resistance.  You aren't allowed to try to make a piece of legislation better.  It is either accept it as is or be labeled as "anti" the effort.  Ugh.  That's how stupid we have become.  Either blindly follow the leader or you are dooming your future.  Again, ugh.  People wonder why we have lost our way, how innovation is no longer understood... or even considered a good idea.  Quite literally, it is looked upon as taking too much of a risk.  So when Toyota has any involvement with the way regulations are written, it is looked upon as fighting progress.  That's how an article with this title came about today: "Toyota shareholders request it disclose climate lobbying efforts, fear it's missing out on EV profits."  You know it will be with regard to cost, not what questions are actually being asked or why.  It is a financial concern.  Think about who is asking.  Long-Term investors have a very, very different perspective on spending than those who focus on quarterly dividends.  Toyota is sell only a small number of EVs currently.  They are expensive, but being produced using the e-TNGA platform by ordinary line workers, it should be profitable.  Meanwhile, we see Ford bleeding money and GM fearing the same.  VW had no choice.  Stellantis remains hesitant.  What exactly is being missed?  The same traction-motors being used in their hybrids are available for both PHEV and BEV use.  Battery chemistry advancement is still a major priority, also something all those electrified offerings will share.  Not wanted to get tangled in another one of those discussions, I kept my reply on the topic more general:  That "how much" is key.  Seeing the "all in" automakers claim to support BEV transition, but then shy away from any actual commitment... some type of measurable progress with consequences for not reaching their own self-imposed milestone... makes you wonder what stockholders would do with Toyota.  It's easy to imagine negotiating an approach being twisted to appear as resistance.  We have all heard the "kicking & screaming" narrative with almost nothing to support it.

5-13-2023

Bridging The Gap.  Gotta love when an article concludes with: "Toyota is still clinging to the argument that the world is not ready for battery electric vehicles and that hybrids and FCEVs will be crucial in bridging the gap.  Is it 2018 again?"  Coming from a publication capitalizing on the comments controversy stirs, that shouldn't be a surprise.  They need to portray an image of resistance under all circumstances, something to fight in the "EV market" because the reality of the "ICE market" is simply too much to deal with.  There are extreme challenges that remain to even try to stir interest from naysayers.  That's why enthusiasts are targeted for those articles instead.  Sadly, that means addressing the failure for legacy automakers to present any type of plan for how they will bridge the gap is not a topic to be discussed.  Ignore the problem for now.  It is too big still.  Ugh.  Notice the complete absence of milestone or penalty?  There is no consequence for claiming to be "all in" but then only delivering very little.  Keeping focus on Toyota distracts from that accountability.  Again, ugh.  Here's how I replied to that nonsense in today's article:  That narrative is based on heavy tax-credit dependence, absence of DCFC in many areas, and sadly in the United States lack of a single DC standard along with poor reliability.  Notice how other legacy automakers don't actually have a plan for bridging the gap?  By distracting from this, using Toyota as a scapegoat, their own supporters can evade accountability.  Silence from those endorsing "all in" is a dead giveaway.  Failing to see that enthusiasts are turning a blind-eye to how we will get from here to being ready is disappointing.  They just give legacy automakers with the empty promise to commit a free pass to continue selling all the ICE they want in the meantime.

5-13-2023

First Attempt.  When a review fails to state reasons why, expect complaints.  Pointing out decision to not include a glovebox without anything else ends up feeding that outcome.  It manifested itself this way in a comment: "It seems like a good first attempt, but definitely needs to be re-thought by the Product Management team."  Of course, there was criticism about range too.  But since no one wants to acknowledge other non-long-range offerings, it's a moot point.  I didn't bother, instead focusing entirely on the absence point:  In place of the glovebox is an infrared heater.  There's one under the steering-column as well. It's an efficiency benefit other BEV don't offer.  Radiant warming direct energy precisely to where you need it, avoiding waste that you get from vents blowing air.  I have a bZ4X with that feature.  Living in Minnesota, I can tell you all about that advantage Toyota offers over others... especially those whining about the absence of a glovebox.  The comfort it provides to my legs is very nice.  Do some research into the topic.  You'll be impressed at what you find.

5-13-2023

Prius: TNG.  I was quite pleased to finally see that reference.  It means, Prius: The Next Generation.  That's the why I always looked at bZ4X.  Each upgrade to Prius contributed to hybrid history, which resulted in a wide variety of hybrid choices across a span of diverse vehicles & options.  I see bZ4X doing the same, for the BEV platform... another founder sharing similar focus.  This is why I bring up audience so often.  I see the pattern and recognize Toyota's objective.  Getting lost in the noise is easy for an enthusiast, individuals who really don't ever notice the bigger picture... how their niche will reach ordinary consumers.  So, it doesn't take much constructive thinking to figure out their are missing what should happen on the larger scale.  Getting hung up in engineering detail is a common trap they fall into.  TNG... much like when we first saw that abbreviation for Star Trek, brought back fundamentals that had been lost over the years... especially when so many other sci-fi choices emerged as a result.  That appeal to a new audience is challenging.  Notice how bZ4X doesn't resemble other BEV.  It should be obvious the attempt to appeal to a new audience, leaving enthusiasts without a voice.  The traits they deemed important are not what Toyota delivered.  That means bZ4X must be declared a failure... quickly, before that new audience... the TNG notices.  What I find especially amusing is how that reference has always been hidden in plain view within Toyota architecture names... TNGA... e-TNGA.

5-13-2023

Remember The Downshift?  That's what some people equate to responsiveness.  They want some type of obvious feedback for rapid acceleration requests.  Dropping the pedal to the floor must be dramatic, in their mind.  That's typical of an enthusiast.  In fact, that is part of their vague definition of what "fun" means.  We get comments like this in that regard: "If the EV you're driving isn't "fun" you've bought the wrong EV."  That's quite subjective.  What does that actually refer to?  In this case, I knew it was the feel from the throttle being press hard.  Since there is no roar of an engine, they expect something like a downshift to be feel.  Remember that in traditional vehicles?  It is absent in Prius too.  So of course enthusiasts complain about that too, sighting it as a shortcoming.  Intentionally delivering a smooth vehicle response is unacceptable, in their mind.  Ugh.  I replied to their enthusiast perspective with:  The smooooooth acceleration doesn't appeal to everyone.  Enthusiasts thrive on the jolt from that instant torque available and frown upon Toyota's effort to dampen the feel for an uneventful burst of speed.  It's just like how some who crave the roar of an engine or desire the jolt of gears shifting want nothing to do with what Lexus seek.  Different approaches for different audiences shouldn't be a surprise.  As you advise, shopping for what appeals to you before purchase makes all the difference.  As a bZ4X owner who just upgraded from a Prius Prime, I was clearly the targeted consumer.  The approach is very much a TNG of Prius.

5-13-2023

AC Speed Category.  The assumed 6.6 kW speed maximum for AC charging comes up on a regular basis.  People simply don't recognize that is a category, not a rating.  I have provided many, many replies over the years explaining what it really represents.  That math tends to confuse people though.  So this time, I approached it from a world view... pointing out how voltages differ from region to region.  That worked much better.  Here's what I posted:  That "6.6 kW" is a category, starting with that as the base.  It is because 220 volts is what had been here in the United States, before the standard got raised to 240 volts.  In half of Africa, it still is 220.  The other half is either 230 or 240 volts.  China is 220.  All of Europe is 230.  Australia is 240.  When you multiple that voltage times amps, you get speed. 220v * 30a is 6.6 kW, the base. 240v * 30a is 7.2 kW.  Some of us see faster due to voltage being slightly higher or slightly more amps being pulled.

5-13-2023

Erroneous Analogies.  I found this comment posted on the review quite amusing: "100 kW DCFC is the equivalent of 720P video; obsolete the moment it comes out, destined to fail."  It simply doesn't work.  You have to distort & exclude to make the concept fit.  That would be cherry-picking the topic.  What I find telling is the fact that enthusiasts don't actually recognize what "obsolete" really means for consumers.  It's just like "bankruptcy" for automakers.  When that status becomes applicable, the outcome isn't a sudden vanish from existence.  Quite the opposite is true.  The resulting next-step can be continuation for years to come.  How that usage is applied will likely be different, but it doesn't go away.  Look at the project Starbucks is undertaking.  Their goal is to deliver a 1000-mile route (from Seattle to Denver) where you can stop to recharge... yourself and your vehicle.  Those DCFC are rated at 62 kW.  The reason is simple.  The infrastructure is readily-available and cost-effective, in addition to serving the purpose of drawing you there to purchase a beverage & food.  So what if it is slower.  You'll end up with a decent amount of electricity without having to actually stay with the vehicle while it charges.  Imagine walking away from a much faster DC charger.  That paradigm doesn't work well with the expectation is to deliver the fastest possible service, while you wait.  Business owners want you to patronize their business.  Anywho, the analogy simply didn't work and I was more than happy to point out why:  Nope.  It's really like 1080p (HD), perfectly fine for general use.  225 kW is like 1440p (2K).  350 kW is like 2160p (4K).  Don't pretend charging at 50 kW isn't still useful.

5-12-2023

Update From Sweden.  This was awesome to get from an owner in Sweden, when I mentioned the upcoming revisions Toyota will be provided: "I have had the software update for a week now and the difference is about 15% in range and consumption.  I really hope you get it soon."  There will be changes to how HVAC impact is estimated (that difference will shrink), how determination of "empty" is made (range will increase, reducing buffer and possibly adding usable capacity), how efficiency is calculated (no longer including charge loss), and there will almost certainly be some tweaks to operation itself.  It all adds up.  Unfortunately, most of that will be anecdotal.  What actually changes will be different to pinpoint, since almost no one has been recording that level of detail.  Heck, I am just barely setup for capture on that scale.  There's a lot at play... which means none of the reviewers will pick up on any of that.  It's an absolute that's easy to confirm.  Just look at how vague their information currently is... and how much of those "facts" are incorrect.  Blah.  Fortunately, there are a handful of owners aware of this problem.  The one in Sweden who reached out to me is among them.  It's nice to build friendships like this.  I'm getting to know certain individuals as online discussion grows.

 

back to home page       go to top