Personal Log  #1216

May 9, 2023  -  May 12, 2023

Last Updated:  Thurs. 9/07/2023

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5-12-2023

Stupid Idea.  Having seen that somewhat constructive comment was encouraging.  This next one was not so much: "I seem to recall that last year Toyota were commenting that BEV were a stupid idea and that they will not pursue that part. i wonder what changed their mind?"  It did make me curious.  Perhaps I could find out where & how that came about.  Finding out the source of rhetoric can be helpful.  So, I repeated that same info I had shared with that other misinformed individual:  Nope, that was just propaganda being spread by others.  What Toyota actually said was they would be delivering a variety of solutions... hybrids, PHEV, FCEV and BEV.  The only mind change was accelerating platform phaseout. Specifically, e-TNGA was intended for builds until 2030.  They are now looking delivery of the "clean sheet" platform by 2026 for Lexus and 2027 for Toyota.

5-12-2023

Supposedly.  Arguing with someone who was clearly manipulated by a narrative is basically impossible.  They succumbed to critical thinking so long ago, the constant feed of misinformation become their norm.  They have no idea their perspective is incorrect.  Supposedly, Toyota had abandoned thoughts of delivering any BEV in favor of hybrids and plug-in hybrids.  Some seriously believe that... without any proof.  I had that argument today.  He absolutely insisted Toyota's stance now is new, a complete reversal of their previous intent.  It's that mindset of only one solution.  All or none.  Ugh.  That's how when the idea of change is embracing, you have nothing to leverage.  It makes responding to comments like this quite a challenge: "The car is supposedly designed as EV from the ground up.  But this is sort of a half truth."  Since that was somewhat constructive, I gave it a try:  Who supposed that?  4X was a dedicated platform from the beginning, which meant EV only builds.  Nothing was done for optimization yet. T hat was always planned for next-gen... which had been targeted 2030.  It has since got bumped to 2026 (Lexus) and 2027 (Toyota).

5-12-2023 Sat On Their Hands.  The portrayal of Toyota resting on their laurels is quite telling.  We saw GM supporters claiming that in the past.  Even though GM did nothing to spread Voltec, they ignored that and claimed Toyota was doing nothing with Prius... even though Toyota was selling a wide variety of hybrids and introduced what GM had been planning for an entire decade... a plug-in hybrid SUV.  That type of effort to undermine & mislead is very frustrating.  They absolutely refuse to accept reality.  Anywho, there are a few who never give up: "Given they've sat on their hands while many of their competitors have secured the battery supply deals for many years to come I'm left to wonder what batteries Toyota will be using..."  I had much to say about that:

Most have abandoned that talking-point.  Gut reaction is to call dibs on something before everyone else.  That isn't always wise with rapidly evolving tech.  In this case, battery chemistry.  Notice how Tesla made such a big deal about "Battery Day" and now several years later we see many of their new vehicles are using LFP prismatic instead of the Ni/Co dependent 4680 cells?  Ford is favoring LFP now too. GM is stuck with Ultium, which is Cobalt rich.

Jumping the gun and getting stuck with contracts using tech no longer favorable is call "premature lock-in".  The fact that Toyota didn't commit yet is a wise business move.

For those paying attention, they see Toyota is currently supplied by Panasonic and CATL.  The chemistry of cells from CATL still remains a mystery.  Observed traits and several of the specs resemble LFP.  Knowing Toyota has had a partnership with CATL since 2019 and that LFP is favored in China with the patent expiration approaching, it wouldn't be much of a surprise if the decision was to have quietly rolled them out in the AWD model for North America.  Knowing that CATL has a business plan to significantly grow and they find the United States market highly desirable, it is a realistic move... something the "should have secured" narrative didn't take into account.

Think about that while also considering future battery chemistry improvements, like double-density and solid-state.  Then take a look at how well refined Toyota's EV software already is.  6 years of Prius Prime delivering all-electric drive have gone totally unnoticed, the ultimate praise for well written software.  As a software engineer for over 30 years, I know that silence from users is priceless.  Look at VW for an example of the opposite outcome.

BEV production takes have the assembly-line distance as regular ICE production.  That makes repurposing existing assets less of an impact as some narratives portray.  Long story short, Toyota could be a juggernaut to be concerned about if you are a legacy competitor.

5-12-2023

Written It Off.  At the start of the week, we got a teaser there would be a comprehensive review of bZ4X.  That was exciting news, knowing the source was as non-enthusiast as you can get.  They focus on electric-only cars from the ordinary consumer perspective.  That is why they don't always like Toyota.  Endorsing plug-in hybrids rubs them the wrong way and they simply want to see more of what Toyota does best, taking the mainstream.  That naturally upsets enthusiasts.  They don't like the type of vehicle that represents, something well balanced.  So when watching the review, you can see them walk that fine line.  They admit the "boring" and "uninspired" which draws people to Camry and Corolla.  Those customers simply want a very dependable vehicle that gets them from place to place.  Excitement draws enthusiasts, who do not see "dependable" as a selling point.  That's what made this particular comment stand out: "Thank you for that review.  You are the first one I have seen that haven't just written it off out of hand as a terrible excuse for a car."  An enthusiast sees the range, speed, power specifications and immediately writes off the vehicle.  That isn't a choice in their mind.  For example, adding a motor to the rear is how they expect AWD to be achieved.  Rather than adding an 80 kW motor in back to go along with the 150 kW in front, Toyota put 80 kW in both front & back.  To the enthusiast, that is a baffling decision.  Why would you balance the vehicle resulting in a small power increase?  That boggles their mind.  They just don't understand why.  It's quite bizarre.  Needless to say, we have been long overdue for objective reviews.  Of course, this was predictable.  It happens every rollout.  Most sources make money from the draw of enthusiasts.  Not catering to them means a struggle to reach beyond their interest.  I'm happy we are finally getting beyond their niche.  Phew!  This is how I replied to that critically thought comment saying thank you:  Reviews created for enthusiasts will appeal to enthusiasts.  Notice how they concluded this review saying how 4X would appeal to Camry owners, a very different audience from those who place a high priority on range, power and speed.

5-11-2023 7 Million.  There is a small group who sees a goal of 7 million annual sales for Tesla.  I continue to be baffled at how they think that will be accomplished.  The current offerings are all variations of basically the same vehicle, which is clearly getting long in the tooth.  Cybertrunk will be a legit addition, but expensive and polarizing.  What else will there be?  They cannot answer such a simple question.  Just like with the GM audience, somehow it will just all magically work out.  There's no substance, no focus.  It's just a mindset of building more.  More what?  Ugh.  This weak response to my question really stirred me: "The new smaller car coming out of Mexico, and quite possibly other factories by then too."  That couldn't have been any more vague.  It's history repeating.  They are repeating the same mistake.  I posted:

And?  Competing with BYD alone will require greater variety.  Looking at what VW and Hyundai/Kia have in store, absence of diversity will become Tesla's drag holding back growth.  This is a textbook example of Innovator's Dilemma playing out right before our eyes.  Tesla did an awesome job of breaking ground and leading the way.  That success will always desire praise. Moving beyond a strong niche has proven difficult for many in the past.  What will Tesla do to draw interest to grow into new markets?

Think about the advantage Superchargers have provided that we are now watching slip away, as EVgo and ChargePoint try to capitalize on Electrify America's struggle.  Think about how Tesla has enjoyed large profit-margins and how those are slipping away as price-cuts continue.

When Tesla finally does offer a smaller car, what will it actually feature for power & range?  Too much could cannibalize Model 3 sales the same way Model S did when 3 rolled out. But to make a low cost vehicle to compete in the much more difficult "economy" market, it will necessitate low profit... something product diversity doesn't favor.  Absence of choice is an upcoming big problem for Tesla.

Of course, there's nothing wrong with not being a giant automaker.  Look at how Honda thrived in that category for decades.

5-11-2023

Zealots.  It is best to avoid identification whenever possible.  But at some point, audience must be identified.  There are times when you are dealing with obsessive individuals, those to really should have a label applied... one with stigma attached.  This discussion stirred such a circumstance: "Don't get me wrong, PHEVs are better than just straight-up ICE gas guzzlers, but they are a compromised stop-gap between the ICE era and the EV era."  The reason for that is simple, the term "stop-gap" itself was at the heart of a campaign to create stigma.  It was an effort to negatively portray hybrids, claiming they are a wasted of resources & effort.  Some still believe that as a result of such rhetoric.  They simply don't want to address how to get to the end state.  In fact, that is why there is so much attention focused on long-range capacity and super fast DC charging.  They ignore the forest, focusing only on that opening to which it ends.  Disregarding all the obstacles along the way... the trees... tends to be counter-productive.  They don't want to see that though.  I jumped into that mess today with:  Same can be said about BEV with long-range capacity.  Yet, none of those claiming shorter range is DOA say anything about that dead weight.  It's quite hypocritical.  As for being a "stop-gap", what's the problem with getting a lots of plug-in vehicles on the road now to serve as a bridge until infrastructure catches up to support all BEV sales?  Turning a blind-eye to what must be done during the transition years is also hypocritical.  In other words, those who have been crying "laggard" are actually "zealots" trying to distract from the issue we have with what to sell in the meantime.  PHEV serve that purpose.

5-10-2023

PHEV Role.  The purist mindset is difficult to overcome.  They see BEV (Battery Electric Vehicle) as the only option.  We are faced with serious climate change challenges, making PHEV (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle) a non-starter.  It has a combustion engine; therefore, it is evil.  That absolute is nothing new; however, we are now at a turning point.  The less capable PHEV are starting to get noticed as uncompetitive and the PHEV that are a threat to BEV.  This is what I had to say on the topic:  6 years of driving a Prius Prime, where my commute was electric-only both directions since work had a bunch of level-2 chargers, tells a very different story.  That was plenty of EV range for most driving.  Now having replaced it with a BEV, it's very easy to provide confirmation from the another perspective that competitive PHEV will play a strong role in plug-in adoption.  bZ4X has already proven to be a great runabout vehicle, confirming the viability of BEV with shorter ranges will do just fine.  We need them for low-cost choices. Road trips are anywhere near is important as some here portray them to be.  Slower and less convenient means they are still viable, especially in my case where the larger AWD vehicle doesn't have to lug around lots of battery-capacity that's rarely needed.  Also in my case, the other vehicle our household is a PHEV.  Those who see BEV as the only way forward seem to be overlooking the transition challenges we still face.  Setup of level-2 charging for homes often requires upgrading service and running new wire.  Simply tapping into an existing an dryer-outlet limits capacity and isn't even an option for those of us in the north.  Progress is slow, painfully so for enthusiasts who are still in denial about those challenges.  It's worse for those who live in apartments & condos. Unfortunately, townhome owners are sighting difficulties as well.  In short, whatever we hear from past studies and prior owners really doesn't apply to the look forward.  PHEV (those providing all-electric drive, including heat) will play an active role in the transition to BEV for years to come.

5-10-2023

At Home Charging.  It's just assumed that availability is a non-issue, a given for everyone at home.  I hear quote all the time about how many people will have access to charging simply because they own a house.  Enthusiasts push the belief that level-2 will be cheap & easy.  That type of misrepresentation can really hurt.  Unfortunately, some aren't aware of that.  This today was a good example of that: "bigger, more complex, access to L2 charging ??? As far as I know, most L2 charging is done at home."  That extra confusion comes from some enthusiasts seeing no value from ordinary AC charging when you are away.  Being plugged in at work, while at a restaurant, or overnight while you are traveling isn't an option in their mind.  Focus is entirely on DC fast-charging.  Heck, they'll even dismiss that DC if the speed isn't fast enough.  It's a blindness that makes the mission of promoting plug-in vehicles difficult.  I try my best though to deal with the mess they create along the way:  That "at home" is the problem.  Getting L2 is proving expensive & cumbersome, for some who actually seek it.  For ordinary consumers who don't have a clue, they simply won't have it available for years to come.  I hear those comments at EV events.  People ask questions about what they need for setup and how their own power provider works, those with homes.  Those in apartments & condos are at the mercy of management/landlords.  That's why being stuck with L1 is a reality for many.  Accepting that is something enthusiasts really struggle with.  They evade the topic of how to overnight charge multiple vehicles too.

5-10-2023 Setting Expectations.  It's hard, especially when a friend tries to have a positive outlook on how long change actually takes.  Then there's the bitter reality of that change not ending up the way you hope.  For example: "Our next car may possibly be the Equinox EV unless Toyota figures out how to make EVs in the near future.  We need more 5 mi/kWh cars, not more 3 mi/kWh cars."  Knowing that when the warm weather finally stays I will routinely be seeing 4 mi/kWh for efficiency, how does that fit into the picture?  With so many unknowns, it's easy to latch onto uncertainties.  That's how hope turns into hype.  Setting realistic expectations is difficult.  Here's what I could share on the topic to help with that:

From GM, I wouldn't plan on a lost-cost model being either high-volume or efficient.  GM will have squeezed in lots of capacity and will deliver very fast DC charging though.

From Toyota, I would expect next year's focus to be getting increased hybrid volume and new plug-in hybrids, while quietly refining 4X operation in preparation for both smaller & larger models.

Looking more broadly at big legacy, it's quite clear there's time.  Notice how GM, Ford and Stellantis really don't have any means of addressing a rapid souring of the traditional market?  VW actually does, but their current struggle software will likely slow their pace; there is a big of low-hanging-fruit at play as well. Replacing a second vehicle and appealing to naysayers is quite a bit more difficult.

Looking at the market, there is time too.  Infrastructure is lacking in both quantity & quality.  We desperately need DC stations to help address range anxiety.  But the bigger and more complex issue is access to ordinary level-2 charging.  We will be stuck with a level-1 paradigm for years to come and Toyota is positioning to capitalize on that.  Having a variety of PHEV already well proven able to take advantage of double-density batteries would enable a smooth transition to plug-ins.

In other words, the shift to BEV won't really follow S-Curve growth since there are more elements at play.  We're dealing with a complex product involving far more than just the technology itself.  Without even dragging the topics of climate, raw materials and politics into the discussion, it should be easy to see the challenges we still face.

5-09-2023

Test Drive Video.  I want to be able to share detailed, informative video of various drives with my bZ4X.  Those real-world captures were great with my Prius.  It takes awhile to determine what is useful to actually share though.  How to do that is the part I'm focusing on now, figuring the "what" part will become obvious as I drive more and listen to comments others make.  Feedback from my own efforts can be constructive too.  So, my testing continues.  I'm working out setup details, figuring out how to increase quality of the dashboard capture.  But you can see elements of what I'm going for taking shape.  The goal is to be able to easily share a wealth of data from ordinary drives... well ahead of this coming winter, when you know a lot of attention will be on what actual owners experience... like me, in Minnesota.  Progress is looking good.  Here's what my latest effort delivered... bZ4X - Test Drive with 3 video inputs

 

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