Personal Log  #1218

May 19, 2023  -  May 24, 2023

Last Updated:  Thurs. 9/07/2023

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5-24-2023

No Glovebox?  Here we go again: "No glovebox?  You must be kidding.  Toyota Engineers said because of global warming our customers don't wear gloves anymore, so they don't need no stinkin glovebox."  It never ceases to amaze me what people get hung up on.  I have noticed that every single post complaining about no glovebox doesn't actually provide any information about what they use it for.  Remember 20 years ago when people freaked out that the glovebox in Prius wasn't lockable?  Locking valuables in a tiny space, incapable of holding something as common as a purse, was a bit of a mystery.  What were they using it for?  Was its absence really a problem?  Why not just use the trunk instead?  Of course, with SUVs not even having a trunk anymore, what can they complain about.  Ugh.  Needless to say, the discussion pretty much never actually addresses what is place of the missing glovebox.  Since the topic comes up so often, sometimes my replies are quite brief:  Infrared heater in the place of a glovebox is awesome.  You have no clue how nice that is until you get to experience that firsthand.

5-24-2023

Major Flaw.  Efforts to undermine Toyota by misrepresenting the recall are growing.  That guy with the video channel attempting to create a conspiracy, claiming the wheel recall was actually a battery problem cover up, has been relentlessly repeating that message.  There is no supporting evidence for that.  He is literally just spinning a lie with the hope it will be spread invalidated.  The other big effort comes from simply not explaining what the recall was for.  A video channel which has a growing reputation for feeding propaganda is thriving on new interest, attracting those wanting to learn more about EVs.  Those videos exaggerate & distort.  New viewers now idea.  Today, it claimed there was a "major flaw" and left it at that.  Hope is assumptions will spread.  It doesn't matter what they are.  In fact, allowing the imagination to invite problems will build legitimacy.  It amazes me how little progress we have made online over the past 2 decades.  There really is a sucker born every minute.  Ugh.  Upon finishing that intolerable video, I posted this in the comments:  Major flaw in the vehicle?  No.  That's an exaggeration and misleading.  It was an issue with the new hub-bolt, a part of the wheel.  No part of the EV propulsion system was involved.

5-24-2023

Cell Delays.  More and more about the struggle Tesla is having gets attention now.  Record sales in Q1 of this year seem to be a summit, something that happened because Model Y was available in excess at the right time.  Now though, we are seeing shipments of the China made version making their way to Canada & Europe.  No one expected that.  Cybertruck showings reveal a smaller than expected vehicle with a much larger than anticipated price.  The simple days of having a monopoly within isolated markets are clearly over.  No one paid much attention to batteries either.  Tesla just made the 1000's of cells assembled together into a pack work.  That wasn't sustainable though, nor competitive.  The rise of BYD with their impressive new blade approach caught even Tesla off guard.  Seeing that 4680 cells couldn't compete with regard to form-factor was made far worse when the realization that using a chemistry without Nickel or Cobalt was becoming a major oversight.  Fanboys don't want to admit that though.  That's how they end up turning into shills... like that administrator of that that Toyota/Subaru group on Facebook, doing everything he could undermining it to show favor for Tesla.  Some don't want to face facts.  Cell delay is turning into one of those facts that is very difficult to avoid.  It reinforces what some of use said all along.  Even if production yield & speed is improved, it still may not be enough.  I posted on that topic today:  It's ironic how premature lock-in got brushed aside as a non-issue, ridiculing those who exhibited concern.  What does it mean now that we are witnessing problems in the form of more delay?  Avoiding any comments that sound like FUD becomes increasingly difficult.  It's way too easy to bring up traits we have already seen LFP demonstrating a better choice for the masses.  What does that mean for a specialty vehicle like Cybertruck?  Those who study business know there are tradeoffs when trying to accelerate product rollout... some of which just end up wash in the end.  Realities of production yield, speed and cost must be dealt with.

5-22-2023

Tesla Uncertainty.  The path forward is no longer clear.  We have seen a series of price reductions and now there is talk of the first ever advertisement.  Those are signs of not being an emerging automaker anymore.  Tesla is becoming established... which means some of the same problems will be faced... like long-in-the-tooth vehicles.  We see the same old Model 3 year after year.  Improvements within don't matter when you are simply spotted them as you drive.  People simply don't want what everyone else has.  That's why each generation of Prius changed so much.  Tesla is now at that precipice.  Making matters more complicated, Tesla needs to expand reach rapidly.  Conquest becomes increasingly more difficult as choices expand and you really don't ever hear about households purchasing a second Tesla.  Anywho, some of that is beginning to become apparent.  Since online discussions tend to focus on price & batteries, I kept my part in today's exchange on the topic of Tesla uncertainty to that:  It's not bankruptcy, it is a problem of growth.  When the market becomes saturated, new prices drop and supply becomes surplus inventory.  All that damages the used market.  Combined with an increase of choices from the competition will cause sales to plateau.  Complicating matters is the heavy investment in 4680, then abandoning much of it in favor of LFP cells supplied by BYD for the European market and CATL for the marker in China.  Tesla is now facing that mess.  We need to look closer at how legacy automakers avoid such problems.

5-22-2023

Anecdotal Observations.  From owners, they are awesome.  Even if they draw an incorrect conclusion or their assumptions are way off base, the point is they gave it an honest effort.  I really appreciate that.  So, I try the best to sort through the bits of information the shared to convey some type of bigger picture in my comment to their post.  This was such a reply:  Level 2 is AC charging.  From ChargePoint, that tends to be capped at 6.2 kW.  At home, for Solterra it can be as fast as 7.6 kW.  DC fast-charging is quite different.  It typically starts at 50 kW.  For Solterra, after the update you'll likely see speeds somewhere in the 90's under ideal conditions.  Not sure what the air or battery temperature was for your experience, so it is difficult to judge results.  Realistically, if you are on a road-trip, you would stop charging much sooner.  Around 60% is the recommendation for most BEV.  Since you don't have the software update yet, this serves as a nice basis of comparison.

5-21-2023 What Car Is It?  Today started with a post from a new member on the big Prius forum, sharing his encounter last night at a gas station.  An owner of a Lexus saw his vehicle, perplexed by what he was seeing.  Those in-person exchanges were always rewarding.  I would get 30 seconds to convey something exciting about the ownership experience.  Coming up just 2 days from now, I will be attending my first big plug-in event.  This will be at a ski resort with presentations and drive opportunities.  They same which our EV group has participated in twice now.  Both times stirred quite a bit of interest.  I didn't have much time away from my vehicle as a result.  There was lots of opportunity to answer questions about my Prius Prime there.  This time, I'll have my bZ4X.  That means even the other owners will be asking questions.  Anywho, this is how I replied to that new owner about his experience:

It's stories like yours that make me feel really good about my prior life, over 2 decades of promoting Prius and its technology.  Each of those generations was rewarding to own... just like what you experienced last night.

The normal product-cycle for something with so many business complexities is... gen-1 = introduction... gen-2 = sales boom... gen-3 = well established, an obvious purchase choice... gen-4 = struggle to renew & grow.  It was textbook outcome, easy to predict that a totally fresh approach would be required to make gen-5 a success.  So, it is great seeing favorable results for gen-5 already.

That technology which started all this has been spread throughout Toyota's fleet, including its other offering that stirs the same "I see that's a Toyota but what car is it?" question. It's what I switched to, the first of the bZ models... 4X... which shares some of the same traits as your Prius, most notably the dashboard display above the steering wheel. There are clear trait similarities, the nature of way Toyota has you interact with vehicle drive attributes. They understand what their customers seek.

I look forward to more reports from gen-5 owners.  Seeing how BEV offerings are in that stage of trying to figure out how to move on to gen-2, it will be interesting to hear from new Prius owners.  Reaching a new audience is extremely difficult, but essential to achieve a sales boom and enable successful spread of the tech.

5-20-2023

Ignorance or Arrogance?  After a lengthy exchange spanning several days, the discussion finally concluded with: "What history are you referring to?  The one where Toyota loses market share faster than it ever has before and then somehow, magically just suddenly leapfrogs everyone?"  I was the one who brought the end to the exchange.  I was unwilling to bite what had become trolling bait.  He had absolutely no idea what I was referring to.  To think that we saw Two-Mode and Volt histories establishing & following this pattern.  They had "vastly superior" technology, making it totally unreasonable to think that anything related to business was important.  Toyota was doomed, period.  Consideration of a need to seek balance and appeal to ordinary consumers was completely unnecessary.  We have a climate crisis and nothing else matters.  Ugh.  Needless to say, I have dealt with this before.  Recognition of needs or barriers is just looked upon as defending an automaker, being their apologist.  The very idea of getting along with other automakers for a common cause, striving to find a solution in the middle... you know, compromise... is unacceptable, not realistic.  What I find most fascinating from such blindness is how the outcome really does appear magical to them.  Since they don't pay attention, all the work Toyota has already done to refine production of electric components is missed.  They are completely clueless to how those same components used in hybrids can also be used in plug-in hybrids and electric-only vehicles.  That's true for the software too.  EV drive is the same regardless of what type of vehicle it is in.  So when bZ4X finally gets noticed as having somehow become competitive, they'll look at it as the software rescuing Toyota.  Somehow, they were able to magically fix shortcomings.  Oh well, whether it is ignorance or arrogance, they are missing obvious clues of what is to come.

5-19-2023 Hybrid Transition.  It's quite a shock to antagonists who obsess with Prius for attacking Toyota.  They haven't actually been paying attention.  So when I inform them that Toyota has already transitioned a quarter of their sales to hybrid, they are dumbfounded.  It tends to end the discussion.  There is simply no comeback for that much progress.  It's basically them being a victim of their own narrative, believing the nonsense they spread.  That makes me very happy and absolutely delighted to point out what they overlooked.  Today, it was posting this:

In order of Q1 sales, here in this market... excluding Prius, since gen-5 rollout was starting in Q2:

   Highlander hybrid
   RAV4 hybrid
   Corolla hybrid
   Sienna (hybrid only, ICE discontinued)
   Venza (hybrid only, ICE discontinued)
   Tundra i-Force MAX hybrid
   Sequoia (hybrid only, ICE discontinued)
   Camry hybrid
   Crown hybrid

As for demanding they be available as PHEV now, that simply doesn't make financial sense.  Waiting until the upgraded platform is delivered & established does.  Also, notice how 3 vehicles don't even offer an ICE model anymore.

5-19-2023

Hollow Victory.  It took several days to finally get to the bottom of the situation.  That often reveals a revelation.  Answering that "why" question was important and I had stumbled across someone who was passionate and open-minded enough to stick with it constructively.  So, I kept pushing for that answer.  I eventually got it too.  This is how I shared the finding:  Thank you for hanging onto this discussion.  It took quite awhile to figure out what your perspective was.  I finally noticed what explained why some references were accurate, yet there was still a disconnect.  It's simple... and a common issue... your references are outdated.  What you describe has already been delivered.  I experience it firsthand, every day.  I own a bZ4X.  Now that the software update is being rolled out, Toyota's focus is the production side... how to deliver the 4 other bZ models.  Toyota's current goal is to establish that sub-brand, not to crank out high-volume... which addresses the same problem other legacy automakers face.  Chasing Tesla is a hollow victory.

5-19-2023

Not Chasing.  Knowing audience is vital.  Some never learn that lesson: "If not chasing Tesla, or VW or GM, or Ford, or Kia, or Hyundai, or heck even Rivian (because Rivian sells more EVs than Toyota), isn't the point.  Toyota is doomed."  It should be obvious that Ford's pursuit of F-150 customers is targeting current owners.  Why would someone who drives a RAV4 or Camry be the slightest bit interested?  Each automaker has its own customer base.  Only Tesla as a newcomer focuses on conquest.  Those sales are in no way a guarantee of a repeat purchase later.  Absence of loyalty was a major mistake GM made, failing to recognize what happened when the market is saturated with choices and subsidies are gone.  The advantage Tesla provides with SuperChargers won't last.  NEVI requirements (to get IRA funding) demand a service reliability level similar to Tesla.  The federal government holds state governments responsible.  Eligibility for the next round of funding is dependent upon what the first stage delivers.  The end result will be consumers focusing back on vehicles instead.  VW is well aware of this, scrambling to ensure their software is refined and their are a variety of vehicles to choose from.  Toyota revealed the 7 models they were striving to deliver.  That variety will appeal to those replacing their traditional or hybrid vehicle with an electric.  Sure, some cross-shopping with other brands will happen.  But statistically, that is not where the sustainable profit comes from.  That is what I pointed out.  Toyota is not doomed.  Here's why:  There it is, the fatal logic error I've been wondering if you'd make.  Thinking of this as "not competitive with all those other brands" simply doesn't make any sense.  The other automakers are not really the competition.  Sure that's what happens for early-adopters, but that's not how it works for mainstream consumers.  They shop based on what their favorite dealer has to offer... you know, shopping the showroom floor.  It's all about understand who.  Know your audience.  Toyota is well aware there will be comparisons between ICE and Hybrid and PHEV and BEV.  Their own loyal customers will be looking to upgrade their well aged Toyota with a new Toyota.  In other words, stop thinking conquest is a long-term strategy.  The time of low-hanging-fruit sales is coming to an end.

5-19-2023

Limited Cells.  The latest from GM sheds some light on what will become of the already delayed Equinox EV.  Sales were advertised late last year to begin in "Spring 2023".  That didn't happen.  Fall 2023 was the new date, but for a Blazer and Silverado to also be part of that plug-in rollout mix to happen, a lot must work out in GM's favor.  GM has a way of undermining itself though.  That happened today with an announcement of Silverado EV being able to deliver up to 450 miles of range.  How is such an extreme pack size a good use of limited cells?  More importantly, what kind of precedent does that setup for a model offering far less range?  When I asked enthusiasts, the reply was an effort to change the topic.  Refusing to acknowledge the problem is a dead giveaway of bigger problems to follow.  Here's how I dealt with that nonsense:  Lame "what about" attempt.  65 kWh = Bolt.  212 kWh = Silverado (like Hummer).  65 * 3 = 195.  Since Silverado will be taking over the production-line Bolt currently uses, what does this tell us about audience & supply?

5-19-2023

Finally Decided.  Attempts to rewrite history often take place in the present.  It's the hope for a narrative, like a self-fulfilling prophecy.  At least, that's what antagonists want: "It's hard to have much sympathy for a company who resists change and doesn't plan for it, but finally decides to do something..."  They expect you to believe Toyota had been kicking & screaming for years, resisting change in every way possible.  Then suddenly, Toyota sees the light but it is too late to change.  They will then take credit for predictions of doom coming true.  That's why so many of the Volt enthusiasts vanishing was an undeniable sign of their narrative having failed.  Watching Toyota deliver what GM had promised for an entire decade was too much to accept.  Notice hints of that history repeating?  I certainly do.  I'm happy to point that out too:  That isn't what happened.  Anyone who claims it was had either taken for the narrative or is intentionally misleading.  The plan for e-TGNA use, with a transition to a "clean sheet" design, has been known for years.  That first stage would take them to 2030.  Now, the plan has been accelerated to 2026 for Lexus and 2027 for Toyota.  There was no "finally decides" other than in rhetoric attempting to portray Toyota as anti-EV.  The reason why is obvious... enthusiasts hate the approach.

 

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