Personal Log  #1187

December 16, 2022  -  December 19, 2022

Last Updated:  Weds. 2/22/2023

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12-19-2022

Transitional Years.  Drawing conclusions based on cherry-picked data is how critical thinking works, right?  Ugh. This is a great example of that: "As for Toyota's hybrid vehicles, it's a different story.  The automaker sold nearly 2.2 million hybrids through October, although hybrid sales are generally decreasing year over year with the introduction of added battery-electric options."  Such a statement seems innocent, but requires looking backward.  The upcoming new Prius, rollout of Corolla Cross, and likelihood of the next-gen Camry only being available as a hybrid were excluded from consideration.  It isn't even necessary to mention Tacoma or Crown hybrids either.  The message should be clear.  Toyota has a solid transition plan.  The next few years will phase out traditional offerings.  Having every vehicle use a battery-pack in some manner is a major step forward, one that's subtle and powerful.  It's really difficult to retain any type of anti-hybrid sentiment when the entire fleet embraces the technology.  It also protect against change backlash if you have already ensured a path forward.  Upgrades from hybrid to plug-in hybrid become a very simple consideration.  That puts the customer much closer to battery-electric options too.  But that's not how the enthusiast mind processes the world around them.  They see change as a simple, inexpensive decision with little risk or apprehension.  All you can do is point out how that fantasy clashes with what we are about to face:  There is the cold, hard reality of what's to come for legacy automakers... Osborne Effect.  What do you do when BEV demand skyrockets?  Keep selling ICE until production can catch up?  Based on initial response to the 5th generation Prius... with such a remarkable appearance change and a major boost to horsepower... there's a lot of potential for the plug-in model.  It can serve as a great transitional opportunity.  Only needing one-fifth the amount of battery, that PHEV is perfect for those interesting in BEV but unable to actually find one or limited by charging.  It's quite reasonable to see sales increase.  As BEV production ramps up and model choice increases, more ICE-only models will be discontinued.  What exactly will "all in" legacy automakers do during the transitional years to come?

12-19-2022

GM... No Hybrids.  The need for any type of transition is hogwash.  Toyota is anti-EV because they support hybrids, period.  There is no need to phaseout traditional vehicles; an abrupt shift directly to BEV will work out just fine.  Ugh.  That is delusional.  How you could dropping something so fundamental actually work when there has been so much fight against changing the status quo for over 2 decades now?  What makes BEV suddenly appealing to absolutely everyone?  When Equinox EV is rolled out, how will ending production of the ICE model take place?  What will GM do to manage demand?  For that matter, how will trade-ins be handled?  A boom in the used market would be very harmful to new vehicle sales.  But with nothing in between... a bridge like hybrids... such an extreme is what you're setting the stage for.  Think about how an oversupply of gas will affect its price.  Cheap gas would sour appeal for going EV.  Why bother changing?  I asked:  GM abandoned their massive investment in PHEV because they couldn't find a means of making it profitable.  So... how exactly are they going to avoid the Osborne Effect by going "all in" with BEV?  That supply/demand issue is a very real problem for all legacy automakers.  As interest quickly grows for plug-in vehicles, production increases won't be able to keep up.  Waiting on a list isn't an option for those in need of vehicle replacement.  What are they going to purchase in the meantime?  There's the issue mentioned in today's article as well: "Reuss said it was frustrating that buyers are deterred from buying EVs due to the charging experience."  PHEV like Volt were to be the bridge while that infrastructure shortcoming is addressed.  We're still many years away from standard & convenient DCFC becoming a reality.

12-19-2022 The Bigger Picture.  Regardless of evidence, there is no secondary problem to address.  If you introduce BEV, the rest of the fleet will magically transform in an ordering manner.  An idea or concern expressed related to fallout... like price mark-ups, long wait-lists, or postponing purchases... is just spin from someone being paid to undermine.  Each automaker will somehow shift their business-sustaining profit overnight from ICE to BEV without disruption or consequence.  So, no plan necessary.  Looking at the bigger picture is a complete waste of time.  Ugh.  Here's why that is such a terrible attitude:

Osborne Effect is a very problem no one wants to talk about.  Demand for plug-ins will skyrocket.

That 13.6 kWh capacity of Prius Prime is one-fifth that of a 68 kWh battery-pack found in a middle-range BEV.  Toyota will be able to deliver 5 times as many plug-in vehicles as a result.  What will happen with other legacy automakers?

Think about what the customer will purchase while on their BEV waiting list.  Toyota is quietly preparing what is shaping up to be an ugly transition for other legacy automakers.  Notice how long BEV waits are already?  Increased production won't be able to keep up with the rate demand will grow.

We are already seeing signs of the Osborne Effect emerging across the industry.

12-19-2022

Absolutes.  It is rather bizarre that such a basic lesson in life is so easily overlooked or forgotten.  Absolutes can become barriers.  Needless to say, I continue to be attacked with the absolute that anything with a ICE is bad.  Under no circumstances whatsoever should a gas-engine be acceptable.  So, treating any vehicle with one as evil is required and attacking anyone who sees otherwise as an enemy.  Ugh.  Some people never learn, no matter how much you try:  Misrepresentation of "hybrid" falls on deaf ears.  Know your audience.  Ordinary shoppers seeing a new Prius Prime delivering 38 miles of EV will be strongly compelled to consider purchase, even with significant infrastructure shortcomings.  They can get still get an all-electric commute from nothing but a 120-volt recharge.  Their next household purchase will almost inevitably be a BEV.  In the meantime, owning that PHEV will encourage upgrading to level-2 without pressure or intimidation.  That is what your "Whatever gets to that end goal the quickest is my belief" stance supports.  There will be a few standout hybrid configurations that will indeed aid quickest.  Purity slows down acceptance.  It's counter-intuitive, but nonetheless a reality.  In other words, this is that lesson learned from history.  Absolutes can become barriers.  Transitional solutions provide a means of overcoming them.  Not leveraging opportunity available is like biting the hand that feeds you.

12-18-2022

No Heater.  It is very easy to imagine something too small for the demands of an enthusiast.  But when a claim like this is made, how do you respond: "Well it doesn't matter what is the speed reduction, if it's already as slow as hell due to NO BATTERY HEATING."  This was what I posted:  Since when does it have *NO* battery heating?  In my Prime, I can clearly see draw from the plug from time to time to maintain an above-freezing temperature, close to 10°C (50°F).  That is a minimum, but it is far more than nothing.  Loss of efficiency still happens.  It needs to be at least 25°C (77°F) to see great results.  Notice how owners (of any BEV brand) don't mention that vital bit of information?  For fast-charging, the ideal is to get battery temperature up to around 50°C (122°F).  What does bZ4X provide for heating from the plug?  What (if any, now or future update) is a reasonable expectation for pre-warming prior to DCFC arrival?

12-18-2022 Prior Experience.  When a comment about rear-wiper absence ends with this, how could I resist not responding: "Also curious about quality of the BZ4X, the first fully BEV by Toyota?  I really like the Toyota brand."  I could not.  This is what I posted:

Quality is the topic naysayers fiercely try to avoid, since this is far from Toyota's first EV system.

Rollout of the 2012 Prius PHEV started the process of their subtle advancements.  It was capable of 100 km/h (62 mph) all-electric drive.  Second generation updates followed with the 2017 Prius PHEV, increasing all-electric speed to 135 km/h (84 mph) and adding a heat-pump.  Third generation update followed in 2020 with RAV4 PHEV adding AWD and liquid-cooling.

Concurrently, as that PHEV evolution carried forward, side endeavors with BEV conversion took place.  Both CH-R and UX300e got models eliminating their gas-engine.  They would help to provide some insight into established market (China) and emerging market (Europe) for making the introduction to a belligerent market (United States) somewhat better.

Those all-electric advancements went unnoticed. Prius Prime owners have been enjoying no-gas commutes for 6 years now.  So what if there wasn't a dedicated platform yet or if the vehicle had a backup power source.  Quality of their EV drive has proven flawless.  Naysayers hate that reality.

Watch video reviews.  Ignore the banter about name.  Disregard the emphasis of driving-range and charging-speed.  Pay close attention to EV impressions.  bZ4X is a pleasure to drive and X-Mode really delivers.  Much of that comes from failed to notice prior experience.

12-17-2022

Great Question.  This comment showed up right away, following that misinformation post: "Is it really that bad?"  I'm quite curious myself.  Since most are judging worth based on distance, we clearly have a problem already.  Can we get people looking at efficiency instead?  Remember that nonsense from Volt enthusiasts?  All they cared about what having a bigger battery.  Lower efficiency was meaningless.  It was all about more range being better.  Think about it.  How often do you actually travel more than 100 miles in the winter anyway?  We begin our evaluation of worth with the outcome observed.  What was the value displayed on the dashboard?  I responded to the comment with:  Great question.  Not actually posting the efficiency value... mi/kWh... leaves us without an means of evaluation.  It is vital to know that.  New owners aren't aware of the importance that nugget of information conveys.  So, we have to ask until enough examples emerge to really draw any type of conclusion.  That's how we can compare outcome to other vehicles.

12-17-2022

Moderator Misinformation.  On that group with the obsessive admin, a moderator posted the following: "At the moment in cold or normal uk weather for every mile I travel I lose about 2 from the range.  This is WITHOUT any heating.  Couldn't even travel from Cheltenham to East London about 110 miles without having to stop and charge to make sure I got home."  I was especially intrigued by that, since that very post had been shared elsewhere.  Here's how I replied:  That is a great example of unintentionally spreading misinformation.  (A print-screen of your post showed up on the RAV4 Prime group, which means they may not get any follow-up to our discussion here.  Just like with that disappointed F-150 Lightening owner, we have to ask what temperate "cold" actually was, what speed the travel was, and if the battery-pack was pre-warmed.  Knowing that information makes a big difference.  Assuming the owner started with a "full" battery the 80% default, it would mean there was 48 kWh of electricity available.  That calculates to 2.3 mi/kWh for efficiency.  With a cold battery at highway speeds in temperatures below freezing, that's a reasonable expectation.  If that battery had been pre-warmed, efficiency would be higher, perhaps enough to cancel out use of the heat-pump on a low setting.  Unfortunately, that information was not shared.

12-16-2022

Like It or Not.  Reality crashing down for a certain bully is too much.  The idea of endorsing plug-in hybrid for the sake of accelerating the phaseout of ICE models doesn't make sense in his mind.  We see Toyota actively doing exactly that.  Next year should bring about another discontinuation of traditional and another introduction of plug-in.  Seeing the shift away of sedans and knowing Camry is due for a next-generation, it only makes sense that it will become hybrid-only.  Corolla Cross will get the hybrid model here too, which should become a segment leader.  That makes rollout of Crown as a plug-in hybrid a no-brainer.  Toyota's effort to bring up the back end is like no other.  Their entire fleet is moving forward while the rest focus solely in pushing forward, completely ignoring their traditional models.  That disregard for how to deal with the bigger picture is disturbing... which is exactly why I keep reminding naysayers of what's really important:  Miles driven with only electricity from a plug is what this is all about.  There will be many households with a combination of BEV and PHEV.  Like it or not, that's the way it will for several years to come, until infrastructure catches up and choices become affordable.

12-16-2022

CARB Credits.  He was arguing about ZEV states, doing a terrible job explaining CARB credits, then just gave up: "You have got to be a plant from a petroleum lobby..."  Because he knows almost nothing about PHEV and sees the world from a purists perspective, I was wrong.  Absolutes a required, no exceptions.  If it has a gas engine, it is unacceptable.  Period.  That type of polarized perspective is nothing new.  They choose to not see complications.  An either/or situation makes understanding a complex world easier.  It's incorrect.  But it their mind, it works.  That's why such bizarre rationalizations come about.  Accepting the fact that Primes operate exactly like a BEV for short distances is too much.  It cannot be so.  That's why some people to this day try to label Volt as a "range extender" rather than admit to themselves that Toyota delivered something similar.  In this case, Prius Prime is just another hybrid.  There's no such thing as plug-in hybrid.  They all use gas, period.  That's desperation for you.  This is how I dealt with today's effort to face facts:  It's simple.  I know how much hate there is for PHEV from Toyota... calling them "gas hybrids" and pretending they don't deliver the full EV driving experience.  The recently revealed Prius Prime... increasing horsepower to 220 and range to 38 miles... derails the narrative about Toyota being behind.  Reality is, they are striving to deliver BEV that are sustainable for the business.  Too bad if enthusiasts don't like them.  They are not the audience.

12-16-2022

Testing Expectations.  What do people expect?  Here's one opinion: "I just find it bizarre that a company like Toyota didn't probably test the sh*t out of the Bz4x before it was launched.  I just feel that the Bz4x is currently still in prototype stage and it was pushed to the market too quickly so all the initial buyers are guinea pigs to find all the faults."  Makes you wonder what kind of testing background someone saying that actually has.  As a software engineer for decades, I know testing never ends.  I tried to avoid that trap by pointing out:  That depends on requirements.  With an initial release, testing the sh*t out of something means ensuring it works under all conditions.  Clearly, it does.  We haven't seen any hiccups whatsoever in operation of the propulsion system.  EV drive works just fine.  Refinements, like metering and secondary draw, are what follow.

12-16-2022

Double-Standard Confirmed.  I wasn't actually expecting to a get a confirmation: "Mine is 2023.  They didn't learn from VW."  It's ok for VW to still face challenges entering their third year with a vehicle; yet, there is still an expectation for Toyota to provide flawless execution from the start.  Ugh. Why don't they get the same amount of time to learn?  I was annoyed.  Knowing it would matter, I asked anyway:  That's confirmation of a double standard.  Rather than allowing first-year bumps as with VW, force a paradigm of perfection right out the gate for Toyota.

12-16-2022

Drop Amount.  Although brief, it was nice getting to be part of a constructive discussion today.  This was about winter efficiency... just a group of random EV owners sharing their own personal observations.  I jumped in with:  Keep in mind that traffic patterns also change in winter.  For me in Minnesota, I routinely see stop & slow conditions as a result of snow.  That longer duration for travel will reduce efficiency, due to the heater running while you wait in traffic.  Thankfully, the heat-pump is better than resistance heating.  Nonetheless, you'll see the impact.  My range drops roughly 35%.

 

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