December 20, 2022 - December 24, 2022
Last Updated: Weds. 2/22/2023
page #1187
page #1189
BOOK
INDEX
| 12-24-2022 |
California Purchase. Remember a
decade ago? I purchased my first plug-in Prius from a friend in
California. She managed all the paperwork remotely and sent me contact
information for a shipper she liked to use. I paid for the vehicle and
arranged transport. It worked out great. The big car-carrier
drove through my neighborhood and dropped up the Prius PHV in my driveway.
I had successfully made a purchase from the very first batch of deliveries
to the United States. It was awesome. Something similar could
have happened again. In fact, today she sent out a message today
saying a fully loaded red-with-black-top FWD model was available.
Sadly, I'm waiting to take delivery through a dealer here. It's for
the greater good. A local purchase is what everyone I encounter at our
events and randomly in parking lots will do. I want to be able to
recommend something realistic for them. That means doing the same
myself. It adds to the pain of waiting. That's fine though.
Each Prius involved a lengthy test of patience. This will obviously be
worth it too. So, no purchase from the sunshine state. I'll make
do here where everything is frozen solid and buried in snow. |
| 12-23-2022 |
Endless Chest Pounding. It's so telling to see this nonsense again: "Tesla does it better than Toyota." He is constantly promoting Tesla... the admin who just yesterday revised group rules to specifically point out discussions are only for bZ4X, Solterra and RZ450e. Then he attacks me personally and posts bait. I respond here and there for confirmation of history repeat. Watching for that all too familiar pattern is surprisingly easy too. Here's the latest: Tell us what that supposed better automaker is doing to appeal to mainstream consumers, to expand beyond their expensive niche. How is the current product-line targeting sustainable business selling to the masses? I see nothing to attract those shopping for a RAV4, Camry or Corolla. It's still just a draw for early adopters. Cold, hard reality is that infrastructure is still in the early stages. Here, we don't even have a single high-speed standard yet or guidance for how to address multi-housing support. The process has only just begun, our first big move beyond proving the technology will become competitive. This is how "know your audience" comes into play. Superiority will be proclaimed when it is premature to do so. Looking at results of select buyers don't mean much when the market as a whole is far more diverse. |
| 12-23-2022 |
Propaganda Push. It's starting again. That previous report attempting to undermine PHEV survived for a very long time. People took it at face value and spread the misinformation as if it was credible and applied in every situation. It was a desperate attempt to fight for purity. All vehicles must be not having any engine of any kind. The solution is BEV for all everyone. Promoting such a distortion of reality take relatively little work. All you have to do is use outdated data that is selected to misrepresent the majority. In other words, you omit anything that doesn't fit the narrative and just keep repeating that lie relentlessly. Fortunately, we are getting a few more voices sounding off sooner this time. For example: "The list of the weak PHEVs from 2013-2014 timeframe... no surprise that they weren't plugged in." That type of feedback didn't come until weeks later with that prior effort. It was enough time for the rhetoric to ramp up, drowning out any type of critical thinking. I aimed the discussion at those who would be most upset, hoping to pull them into the mess sooner. It is sometimes just a matter of poking the right person with a stick at the right time. We'll see what kin of reaction this stirs: Imagine the outcry if a BEV rolled out in 2012 was used to represent the current state of that technology for policy decisions in 2023. That's exactly what they did using the first-generation Prius PHEV data. The second-generation is already being cleared out for third-generation rollout in a few months. The difference between that decade of advancement is profound. Both power & range were increased significantly, exactly what's needed to encourage plugging in as much as possible. Omitting such vital information is blatant misrepresentation. |
| 12-23-2022 |
Battery Heating. We get statements like this from time to time: "Found out today that Toyota can't deliver battery heating to charger in cars that are built and going to be build on year 2023." No source was provided or detail on what that truly meant. It appears to be a reference to pre-warming, the type you get from heavy battery draw while driving for heat well above the operating level... specifically for DC fast-charging. That may require additional hardware or an upgrade, hence not until later. I pointed out: Vital information is missing from that. The expectation has been that basic battery-warming, like what has been standard in the Prime vehicles, is included with 4X already. That heats the pack enough to keep it above freezing. Target temperature is 10°C (50°F), only to a point of reducing winter impact. Increasing performance, in terms of extreme cold temperature driving and DC fast-charging, is an entirely different matter. It's exactly what you would expect from a mid-cycle upgrade. Tradeoff is a combination of added cost, weight, complexity and energy consumption. |
| 12-22-2022 |
Test Drive. This was his entire post: "I just test drove a Solterra in a cold weather for
about 2 hours. Temperature was -3 F, a little windy. I was the only
person in the car. Mostly Highway driving. I got about 100 miles and
batteries were mostly depleted. Only 11 miles range remained."
That report wasn't as vague as most, but the one piece of vital information
many of us have been routinely asking for was missing... the efficiency
value. It's strange to exclude that, when you stop to think about it.
MPG is an ordinary part of reviews for traditional vehicles, hybrids, and
plug-in hybrids. Unfortunately, range is perceived as the indicator
for BEVs instead. That doesn't make sense, when you stop to think
about it. Look at VW and Nissan for an understanding of this.
Both ID.4 and Ariya will offer two size battery-packs. Range tells you
nothing about how much energy each will consume to travel a specific
distance. Efficiency is measured in terms of mi/kWh. How many
miles will you be able to travel for each kilowatt of energy available?
Sadly, such a question isn't obvious. We'll need to stress the
importance of that value for quite some time to come. For this
instance, I responded with: 100 miles driven 11 miles remaining 26 miles "empty" buffer 60 kWh usable capacity ---- 2.28 mi/kWh calculated Any chance you noticed what the dashboard displayed for efficiency? The calculation puts those results on-par for other BEV in those same winter conditions. |
| 12-22-2022 |
Analogy Fail. This was great: "Kodak thought they were making progress with a "hybrid" scanner that could digitize film. It didn’t work out so well for them." Attempts to label Toyota as a major failure in progress, doomed to bankruptcy, are abundant. Comparisons to Kodak is the common approach. The catch is, detail must be avoided. If you look at what actually happened, there's no comparison. It is really just an example of a company too big to fail that did anyway. The how & why contributing to the failure are not discussed... for good reason... since they don't actual compare well. I was happy to point that out too: What didn't work out well is that analogy. For it to work, film would have to be the backup for when digital isn't available. ICE is only a backup in their PHEV models, for when the plug-supplied electricity is used up. |
| 12-22-2022 |
Motivation.
Initial rollout commentary becomes more and more negative as those first
deliveries take place. It's due to the discovery process. A few
of the poorly informed end up with buyer's remorse. Naysayers exploit
that opportunity, amplifying & distorting the negative. It drowns out
those happy with their purchase who have very little to say. Some end
up feeling empowered to take on a teaching-moment role. Most just lurk
though, wondering if the situation will get any better. I provided
some perspective on the matter: This is quite normal. After 2 decades of following Prius, it is interesting how the "silent majority" go completely unnoticed... you know, the owners completely content with their purchase decision. No need to share experiences online. It satisfies their expense. Those who join an internet venue don't represent the majority. They are either someone who wants to learn all of what their vehicle has to offer or someone who seeks a place to vent their disenchantment. If something didn't meet their expectations, they feel compelled to let the world know. That's ok, but such activity feeds narratives. So as you pointed out, the posts tend to reflect a negative attitude... one which is very easy to amplify. It's unfortunate, but that's the way this works. This situation is especially bad with new technology that's easy to make incorrect assumptions about. The advice I have been sharing for years is "know your audience". Recognizing the skewed perception that emanates from online comments is very important. Those opinions do not match that of the masses. |
| 12-21-2022 |
Lastly. It is quite fulfilling to see some predictions fall into place. All those years ago, when Prius Prime was rolled out, I commented about how the difference in appearance may have been an attempt to better measure future opportunity... specifically, the possibility of making the next Prius only a plug-in. Not offering a hybrid model was too much to accept back then, when to-the-floor acceleration and heat-pump use were new to the general market. But now that it is 6 years later and we are looking back, that's not such a profound idea. In fact, it looks like an obvious next step... much like the thought of phasing out traditional models for hybrids. Funny how you get so much resistance until the concept has a chance to sink in. For me, I had been thinking about that a decade prior. Much like computer evolution, some people wait years for those innovations to finally take form and others discover that next step forward while shopping. It is why "know your audience" is so important. Not everyone is at the same stage at the same time. I ended up following up my previous post with this: Lastly, that strong demand you pointed out for every model with the word "hybrid" is what's needed for continued to push to an all plug-in fleet. Seeing Prius in Europe become the first to only be offered as a PHEV is a sign of progress. Sales could enable that same transition here. And we all know, once you have a PHEV in the household, the next purchase being a BEV is very likely. |
| 12-21-2022 |
Bitter & Impatient. The attitude is
growing: "Before you get to the Osborne effect, they can't
even deliver the current vehicle types to their customers. Those people are
waiting for Sienna "self charging" hybrid..." What followed
explained why: "Currently my
relative is already waiting one year for their Sienna and most likely have
to wait another, is anything but good customer experience - rather it's
"F*** You" experience." No need to even mention supply
challenges. There's more at play not being addressed: Step back, looking at demand & outlook tells a different story. The minivan market is fickle, making it less of a priority. The small SUV market is booming. At the same time, there is a very real threat of Osborne Effect. Toyota is preparing for the possibility of rapid ramp-up, a means of dealing with abrupt shift to plug-in vehicles. 1 battery-pack for a BEV is the same amount of cells needed for about 5 PHEV. Toyota is setting that stage by spreading hybrid tech that is easily adaptable to support a plug. We have seen it in Prius & RAV4 already. We know it is coming for Harrier (Venza) and Crown. In Europe, C-HR will be getting a PHEV option too. Seeing the new Corolla Cross hybrid also get it makes sense. Not preparing would be the "F*** You" to their loyal customers. What exactly will GM and VW do if there is a sudden market surge in demand for plug-in vehicles? When BEV wait lists get long, do you really think their customers will be happy with a new ICE instead? It's all about the bigger picture now, not just individual vehicles. |
| 12-21-2022 |
Squandered Time. Was it? Some seem to think so: "It irks me greatly how much time Toyota squandered." I pointed out: Squander is indeed the impression. How could such opportunity be missed? History tells us otherwise. Waste is not always as it first appears. Stepping back to look at the bigger picture, you can see resources were used to cultivate design & approach. Reveal of the new Prius Prime should make that obvious. Like the jump in PHEV generations from 2012 debut to 2017 upgrade, that also gave the impression of squander. Unexpected halt of production back in 2015 didn't make sense until the 2016 reveal. Then in because obvious there was simply no reason to continue on with sales knowing such a major improvement was on the way. |
| 12-21-2022 |
Attacks & Conquest. That admin has been relentless. Basically, this is the first encounter with a troll who controls the venue. It may not have started that way, but between the power and the disenchantment, his bully attitude has changed. Efforts to encourage discussion has turned into bait. He thrives on Tesla, promoting it as superior while at the same time denigrating Toyota. It's interesting to witness the change it is providing. I'm seeing activity grow elsewhere. Some are beginning to speak out against his stance too. For example: "I went from the 2012 plug-in Prius to a 2015 Tesla to a 2018 Tesla and back to 2021 RAV4 Prime." That's something to fear for him and a great perspective reminder about potential outcome from his attacks. Remember the problem GM had with Volt? Those sales were conquest. Loyalty was not a guarantee. Owners went elsewhere when leases expired and new opportunity emerged. Toyota strives to avoid fallout like that. Enthusiasts typically fail to recognize that effort; however, the outcome itself becomes apparent. It makes you wonder how many prior Prius owner who switched to Tesla... which is a much celebrated statistic... will consider Toyota for their next purchase. Think about how well a third-generation Prius Prime would compliment any BEV. This is what I had to say about the tide turning: Our CCS infrastructure here is basically non-existent still. Within the next year, several nearby locations for me will become available. That will enable convenient travel to far reaches of the large metro area, but further trips won't be realistic. For my wife and I, that means using the Prime for trips up north. The 4X will work well for bike trips, even those to our favorite remote trails (50 miles driving, each way). |
| 12-20-2022 |
True Fear. That's why these blogs are growing larger and focus so much on transition now. We are clearly at a turning point, one which some are clearly unprepared for. Sensing the fear becomes remarkably easy. They truly don't know what to do next. Discovering the strategy you so heavily endorsed has serious shortcomings beings about panic. Finding someone to blame and making excuses won't change any of that. Yet, that's exactly what I am dealing with at the moment. This is exactly like when Volt enthusiasts abandoning ship became too obvious to deny. Next year will be quite interesting. It's what I have been waiting for. Hybrids will take up the base, finally ending the reign of traditional vehicles... for Toyota anyway. How other automakers will address change remains a mystery. That's not a good message for customers. Clear expectations should be set. Oh well. Some will keep celebrating as if the first battle was really the entire war. Ugh. The game is just about to begin and some are ill prepared, having planned for the same play in the past to be all that's necessary to win. That is incredibly risky. Yet, we see celebrations already. Talking about refusing to acknowledge a situation. I pointed that out with: Tailgate party is a great example of fantasy. Refusal to acknowledge sales subsidy not still being necessary for growth and significant charging shortcomings is a confirm of the actual game only now just starting. All we have accomplished so far is proving the technology worthy. Kudos! Effort to spread it and make it cost competitive is the next step being embarked upon at this point. When an ordinary shopper can go to their dealer, have opportunity for test-drive, place an order for a BEV, then take delivery in a reasonable amount of time, the game is well underway. When public charging switches from concern to convenient, the game is won. Placing blame or making excuses is a telling sign. What makes you so afraid of admitting we still face some big challenges? |