Personal Log  #1186

December 13, 2022  -  December 16, 2022

Last Updated:  Weds. 2/22/2023

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12-16-2022

Say Failed.  There is a mania level of taunting to get an admission of failure.  The antagonist absolutely must be provided with a message of defeat; otherwise, you'll be hounded to a bitter end... unless you find a means of trapping them.  This was a great opportunity for that: "There is no doubt that their EV line up will be great overtime, but please acknowledge that their first trial was missed and in error."  It's that whole vastly superiority thing.  They choose an enemy to destroy (Toyota, of course), then any way possible it shall become the result.  The idea of destruction elsewhere takes away from that victory.  That's why I really enjoyed pointing out:  Sounds like a double standard.  Look at the mess VW had with the need for ID.4 updates.  2021 models are only now getting them.

12-16-2022

Product Version.  Gotta love when something so arbitrary gets posted: "Very much a V1.0 product, I got the call for a Solterra yesterday, I passed. LE FWD seems like an ok compromise IMHO."  My reply is always lots of questions:  That seems to make sense, until history considered.  Toyota is ahead in some regards with respect to how their EV drive has proven bullet-proof for PHEV use.   Those all-electric miles haven't stirred any trouble whatsoever for 6 years now. Think of all the upgrades that already happened.  So what if that hardware & software originated elsewhere, prior to BEV use.  Why wouldn't any of that count if several criteria has delivered?  In other words, we see constantly see enthusiasts making assessment of status, but fail to specify requirements.  Using only electricity, supplied by an electrical source (grid delivered or renewable capture) for travel is the goal, right?  That means we should define what a V2.0 product would deliver.  In other words, we are repeating history. This has all been discussed before... in the past... with hybrids.  What constitutes the difference between a minor upgrade and a major release?

12-16-2022

Letter From Toyota.  In Norway, they got this today: "The battery in the bZ4X has a relatively high residual capacity after the display shows 0 kilometers.  The buffer is at least eight percent of the battery capacity and this is included in the calculation of stated range (WLTP).  We understand that this is not in line with the expectations of the customers, and we are now studying a change that better visualizes the available range for the driver, as well as a display in the car of the current capacity stated as a percentage.  The changes will be made available in the future and we will inform customers as soon as they are implemented."  What more could have been said?  That is exactly what was anticipated.  When you discover expectations are different, you find a way to adapt.  What such an adaptation delivers is what makes the world interesting.  That's why I like Toyota.  Their attitude of continuous improvement is very supportive of change.  You strive to adjust along the way, keeping flexibility in mind from the start.  Being software based, this adjustments won't be a big deal.

12-16-2022

Not Knowing.  When the status quo begins to shift: "Looks like you're here to represent the mainstream, just go and drive a Corolla, there is a hybrid now so no fear for range."  Enthusiasts sense change and fear what it will bring.  So, they fight to retain their niche.  If you can create a strong enough narrative to hold your own view of the world in suspense, having to address anything else won't be asked of you.  Pretending others don't exist works fine.  Ugh.  Variety is coming.  Those choices will dilute & downplay.  Focus is lost.  It's a cruel end for someone who prompted something unique.  They wanted it all, from a single design.  Not knowing (or not wanting to know) that the world is filled with variety and your preference will likely be different from others is too much to accept.  Well, too bad.  That's how things work... as I pointed out:  That is what "know your audience" is all about.  In fact, it came about from the same problem... when enthusiasts don't recognize what the "Who?" question means.  Know your history.  In this case, bZ4X is a product for the masses... which means, those here insisting that range & speed are of the upmost importance don't recognize audience.  Sure, Toyota will tweak the software to enable better cold-weather handling, but that will be an incremental step as part of any rollout.  You want something to drive a lot further or to charge a lot faster, you purchase something else instead.  That is why there will be other offerings under the "bZ" nameplate.  It will also be a normal generational improvement for 4X itself.  This is just like when Prius was rolled out... hence, know your history.  In never ceased to amaze me how enthusiasts harped on shortcomings of Prius, but absolutely refused to acknowledge the other Toyota hybrids.  They were looking for an antithesis... hence, know your audience.  Think about all the "late to the party" claims.  They were absurd, since Toyota doesn't attend what happens before the game... tailgate parties.  They go straight to the field for real play... mainstream consumers.

12-15-2022

Dangerous Misinformation.  This was scary to read: "It's important to remember that a Prius hybrid is not an electric car by any stretch of the imagination.  The car has an ICE, runs on gas, and only rarely uses just EV mode.  Yes it has a small battery, so it would take one BEV car worth of battery to build five Prius hybrids."  He was completely clueless, repeating the same misinformation even when called out on the count mistake.  He doubled down.  There is a very real danger when people have no clue what they are talking about.  You should feel very concerned when encountering such absence of critical thinking.  Unfortunately, replies like mine are rarely taken seriously.  They tend to make up their mind and refuse to acknowledge error.  I try anyway:  Five 13.6 kWh battery-packs for PHEV would indeed equate to one 68 kWh BEV, but that invalidates the claim of "not an electric car by any stretch of the imagination".  Toyota's current generation already delivers 25 miles of all-electric driving, complete with heat-pump.  The upgrade for 2023 will bump range to at least 38 miles of all-electric driving.  How is that not any electric car?  It provides enough EV range to cover the average commute.  No gas driving is the point of a BEV.  So what if the car also has an ICE for backup power when plug-supplied electricity runs out.

12-15-2022

Progress.  That act of advancing beyond niche proves to be very painful for some.  They just plain don't understand why the next step should be so complicated.  For example: "You forgot to mention Tesla in the bunch, since more than 10 years now.  I don't remember that they had any glitch with their batteries."  Basically, the same thing happened with Volt.  Like Tesla, there were fires from accidents.  But for EV operation, they worked fine.  Trouble was, GM couldn't fine a means of making them affordable.  Tesla is struggling with that same problem now.  Enthusiasts pretend that isn't a problem now.  They see extremely high demand for Model Y and translate that to mean everyone will buy one.  How?  Whenever we have an event, the overwhelming critique is it's "too expensive".  Making it affordable will almost certainly not be possible with technology breakthru alone.  Compromise is required.  The best & most of each trait is unacceptable for realistic business.  Balance is required.  Tesla is still a long way from making tradeoffs necessary for that.  It's a fundamental contradiction of purpose.  You cannot be an enthusiast and be in support of something lacking fervor.  Yet, that is exactly what best-selling vehicles require.  Oh well.  Progress doesn't care.  When demand & supply both grow, the troublemakers here now will move elsewhere.  They don't like ordinary.  I like reminding them of how got to this place, asking the hard questions?  That's how "progress" works.  The first generation tend to be overkill design, very expensive but ultimately proven reliable.  Advancing to the next generation requires scaling back, finding a means of cutting cost.  That very often results in some re-engineering of material and production.  What seemed unnecessary may prove otherwise.  It's a risk... which literally went up in flames for GM/LG.  Notice how much Tesla is struggling to deliver 4680 cells?

12-15-2022

Follow Up.  It is telling how naysayers expect Toyota to be perfect immediately, no opportunity for follow up like all the other automakers.  It makes no sense.  When the technology is continuously improving and the masses are only now discovering, how would you even define perfect?  Clearly, none of the trouble online comes from software developers, system engineers, business analysts, etc.  So many people I work with throughout the reach of my career understand how to deal with complex requirements.  It's really enjoyable taking on such massive projects, building something that will ultimately be delivered to a very wide audience.  That's how I can relate to what Toyota does so well.  That is also why so many online cannot.  Those keyboard warriors have no idea what it takes.  When you must carefully work out detail of what the customer is really asking for, based on what they convey outside of the request itself.  It's what they don't tell you that really makes a difference.  You watch for what they actually need, not what they say they need.  Same thing happens with the car stuff.  You provide it with follow up.  The process is continuous... rollout... upgrade... upgrade... upgrade.  Each is a follow up based upon was learned from the previous upgrade.  That's why you start simple.  Getting keyboard warriors to recognize the importance of that... pointless.  They pretty won't ever figure it out.  The point for posting anyway is for the lurkers and to validate your own claims.  The act of researching that follow up is often an education experience.  Sometimes, it consumes a lot of resources too... much searching & reader.  Needless to say, I do exactly that... starting with:  How much energy that consumes and whether that mi/kWh reduction would be acceptable is what needs to be assessed.  There are varied markets and a wide array of consumers, many poorly informed.  Keeping it simple initially... just like VW did... helps identify wants & needs.

12-14-2022

Random Provoke.  It's always a good reminder to see random provoke comments posted.  Out of the blue, someone will share troll bait.  Someone will inevitably bite.  We've seen in countless times in the past.  Some reports go on like that for years.  They continue to stir trouble, long after they have been debunked.  That's why misinformation is intentionally posted, even after it is outdated.  It's what fake news thrives on.  The idea of conspiracy takes very little to reignite.  That's why we need to counter those attempts.  Ignoring them provides suspicion.  It's a nasty situation.  They'll spin both silence and detail.  You can't win.  You can control the conversation though.  Provide closure, forcing the situation to end.  In other words, take the bait but don't do anything with it.  Having nothing to work with, antagonists will either give up of back into a corner.  Your reply forces their hand.  For example, today's share of that misleading range controversy got this from me:  That article from a month ago has both translation and conversion issues, but it did draw attention to the reality that cold temperatures can have a substantial impact on range.  That discussion has since moved on to addressing the factors of influence and collecting data from other BEV driven in similar conditions.

12-14-2022

The Devil.  It's in the detail.  This audience doesn't care though.  Supposedly, we already have enough confirm failure.  There's no critical thought.  We're at that juncture again.  Remember the "vastly superior" nonsense?  It's back.  All that can be done at the moment to provide background.  Owner shares are extremely vague and random discussion participants just assume the reports published are objective & comprehensive.  Ugh.  Oh well.  Within the next few months, I should have mine.  Then, I can fill in the many blanks currently being created.  In the meantime:  There is a new infrared cabin-warming device available on some models.  That should significantly reduce demand from the heat-pump, since it is both directed and more efficient.  The equation for efficiency is more complicated though.  Those aware of Toyota history will recognize the pattern.  Just like in the Prime vehicles, there is a secondary heating device in all 4X.  For Prius & RAV4, that was the ICE.  People would activate it out of habit, then complain about the engine running.  It is for MAXIMUM defrost, which is rarely actually needed.  Living through 5 winters in Minnesota with mine, I know that extremely well.  The heat-pump blowing on the windshield keeps the glass clear 99% of the time.  I suspect the same problem is playing out with 4X.  Drivers are unknowingly activating a resistance-heater, its equivalent of MAXIMUM defrost.  That unnecessary waste of electricity would have a big impact on range.  Running only the heat-pump is all that should be required to keep the glass clear.  So as was pointed out, devil is indeed in the detail.  There is a lot more we need to find out... like heating sources & settings... before drawing a conclusion.

12-14-2022

Bittersweet Irony.  When Toyota does something different, it is labeled as a loss of direction... hopelessness... doom... failure on a colossal scale.  Ugh.  At this there is some type of discussion pertaining to BEV efforts: "For average folks, a descent size "usable now" battery would certainly provide a greater range and peace of mind."  The bias though is too strong to overcome.  Enthusiasts don't recognize leadership in any way other than pushing boundaries.  Ugh.  That's why replies like this tend to just fall on dear ears:  Trading short-term gain at the expense of long-term is a common choice.  Toyota's decision to not follow the crowd is a trait of leadership, taking risks.  It's ironic that very thing people complained Toyota didn't do is now a source of complaint for doing it.

12-13-2022

Disenchantment.  This is it at its best: "I really don't understand that he founded that group so being negative about the BZ4X."  The admin is turning into a bully, lashing out at us for he misinterpretation of the market.  Those rose-colored glasses Tesla provided distorted reality, giving the impression those initial sales would be the most difficult.  He didn't understand how low-hanging-fruit works.  He didn't recognize the challenges to come.  He didn't plan for such a very different outcome.  Now, we have to deal with those failures on his part.  Ugh.  I posted this for some perspective:  About a year ago when 4X was first revealed, he was excited to see Toyota finally joining the market.  There was a sentiment of frustration among Tesla owners about its failure to reach ordinary consumers.  He assumed Toyota would deliver a refined version of Model Y.  Finding out how different of an approach Toyota has taken to appeal to that audience has fueled his negativity.

12-13-2022

Unreachable Consumers.  How do you reach them?  I have watched this play out many times of the years.  Enthusiasts hate the approach: "Isn't it great that nanny-Toyota will hold back energy, because they are so much smarter than their customers?  That way, Toyota can offer some absurd battery warranty that less than 0.01% of all cars will ever reach."  Oh well.  Some simply never see what others see:  Don't dismiss what others deem important... like RESALE.  Retention of range is a really big deal.  The fact that most owners will never actually redeem the warranty misses the point.  It's the show of confidence that supports the vehicles value.  Claimed necessity of battery replacement still plagues the mainstream market.  Seeing actions taken by an automaker to ensure there is no degradation of ownership experience as the years tick by is vital.  Take a good hard look at how ordinary people actually use technology.  That is the takeaway from hybrids.  Having learned how to appeal to the unreachable is very, very, very different from early-adopters & enthusiasts.

12-13-2022 Online Magic.  Pushing those who are well informed, but misguided, into having to research rebuttals is usually futile.  That have no idea why you are being so obsessive.  They assume that is just blind loyalty, rather than something of substance to support such a stance.  Every now and then though, you get a glimmer of hope like this: "Some people are going to ask, "Why doesn't Toyota allow us to use the 8 kWh of energy between 64 kWh and 72 kWh?"  That is a great question.  The simple answer is that over time, the battery will degrade.  What Toyota would likely do is allow for up to 8 kWh of degradation, which is only a bit over 10%, so that its drivers will get roughly the same range autonomy over time.  Therefore, you will have the same 60-64 kWh of total energy available, whether the battery is new or the battery has 10% degradation in the coming years.  Tesla does not do this."  It is something we had speculated about in the past, but never really had a viable means of confirming.  This time though, there are more pieces of the puzzle available... exactly why I pushed.  Needless to say, I was thrilled about seeing signs of progress.  Here's how I replied to that: 

It is nice to see you on the same page now.  That's what the know-your-audience kerfuffle was all about.  Tesla owners are not Toyota shoppers.

From Tesla, you get a platform catering to early-adopters, those seeking exploit what new technology has to offer.  They are enthusiasts rewarded from opportunity indulgence.  There's nothing wrong with that, but it is most definitely not a shared trait.

From Toyota, you have those seeking longevity.  They are more than happy to accept a balance of features in return.  That's why emphasis on range & speed simply isn't a priority.  Those shopping for a 4X seek a vehicle that will predictably last a very long time.

This is why the idea of tapping into the buffer as the battery ages to retain the same usable capacity is a perfectly reasonable expectation.

The idea of range degradation is a very real concern for some.  Naysayers claim Toyota is conservative, unwilling to take risk or show leadership.

Now that the cat seems to be out of the bag showing us otherwise.  What do you think the response will be?

 

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