November 25, 2023 - November 30, 2023
Last Updated: Sun. 4/21/2024
page #1250
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BOOK
INDEX
| 11-30-2023 |
CyberTruck. It was revealed today. We got almost no detail. Its rollout was just more hype. In other words, this is a disastrous step in the wrong direction. Catering to enthusiasts is exactly what not to do when you are trying to establish standards and break out beyond the initial audience. Mainstream consumers don't have a lot of money to devote to a vehicle purchase. Emphasizing size & power is exactly what not to do. Repeating mistakes of the past is bad enough, but to ignore the lesson learned with a grave warning is another. This is innovator's dilemma, something taught in business classes. Ugh. I guess some people believe they can defy the odds and take on huge risk without circumstances. I remember my classes in college. We had a exercise that took weeks to play out. There were teams who each submitted a business decision. Software determined an outcome, taking a wide variety of factors into account. It was a market simulator. There were many unforeseen consequences. You had to decide the next step carefully. Planning ahead tended to pay off, but tended to be rather boring. Payoff could be huge though. It was my first exposure to the wide variety of factors at play. It was very easy to lose sight of objectives... like audience. It was also very complex, difficult to explain but quite clear when upon witnessing outcome. Enthusiasts don't want to see reality. That's why I kept my commentary brief. This is all I posted following today's rollout: We got yet another expensive niche. |
| 11-29-2023 |
No Plan. This speaks for itself: "Funny how everyone is following in Toyota's footsteps, the company that was allegedly behind everyone." This has come about upon finding out just how much GM has been struggling to deliver. Not only will volume be much lower, new rollouts will be delayed again. It makes their BEV-only approach even more uncertain... so much so, talk of bringing back hybrids has stirred. I pointed that out with: That's because they didn't actually have a transition plan. BEV are great, but they won't be for everyone for far longer than those legacy automakers wanted to admit. They just made a non-binding "all in" promise and hoped for the best. Seeing their plans already begin to struggle with the realities of business makes PHEV an obvious bridge choice to consider. The fact that Toyota already had Prius & RAV4 as PHEV and both Crown & CH-R on the way puts Toyota well ahead... quite the opposite of what the "behind" narrative portrayed. It establishes a consumer-base who will pounce on their next-gen BEV offerings too. |
| 11-29-2023 |
Business Reality. Rollout of CyberTruck begins
tomorrow... 4 years after its initial reveal. No one really knows the
who & what anymore. That original concept was absurd, an obvious
publicity stunt to draw attention away from Ford & GM efforts to establish a
BEV market for pickups. Tesla was to be different, a standout.
Why? Who? What goals will it fulfill? Rather than answer
those question, they get reflected back as if the antagonist started the
dialog and really wanted to know. Ugh. Today, it was: "What's
Toyota's purpose? Isn't it the same as Tesla's? To make money?" Nonsense like
that is tiring. But knowing tomorrow is a paradigm shift, where
concept becomes reality, those keyboard warriors pushing the engineering
perspective will be forced to step aside for business. I put it this
way: Your background of trolling me, then asking questions you obviously already have the answers to, is vindicating. That is the "reset" tactic, attempting to keep discussion in the discovery phase. Pointing out that this is just a repeat of history, being well aware of the pattern recognition, is how the dismissal & attacks come about. As for those answers, you don't like them. So, we get denial in the form of distraction. It all comes down to engineers not liking the reality of business. They obsess with technical achievements and don't want to face what it takes for them to reach ordinary consumers. Having to make tradeoffs and show extreme patience is not a trait they want to embrace. It is necessary though. That's why they seek out an antithesis, something to project blame onto. It's a lame excuse. It happens all the time. This topic is yet another repeat of that. Watch what happens with CyberTruck tomorrow, how it is yet another example of not wanting to deliver what the masses really need... focusing on want instead. That's not what Toyota does. Their purpose is to find a means of achieving sustainable profit. Even without knowing the specs for CyberTruck yet, we already see it won't fulfill that objective. |
| 11-28-2023 |
Deal Breaker. I have heard this quite frequently: "Cold weather issue alone is a deal breaker where I live." The statement from Toyota itself is often referred to, but rarely actually quoted. We get a lot of hearsay. I looked it up for specifics: "For bZ4X AWD, DC Charging will slow down further than other models when the temperature is below 32 degrees Fahrenheit and may not be possible when the temperature drops to around -4 degrees Fahrenheit or below." It's the detail matters. Far too many are making assumptions or mixing up facts. Sometimes, it's even more simple than that... a person not taking a moment to consider the information put forth to consider the message being conveyed. I constantly have to provide reminders of that: Great example of not using critical thinking. That disclaimer is boiler-plate language, true for all BEV. -4°F is a limitation of lithium chemistry. It means you have to wait for the battery-heater to sufficiently warm the battery before charging will begin. As for the 32°F threshold, there is a cold-weather software update already being rolled out to provide greater use of the battery-heater for faster DCFC. |
| 11-27-2023 |
Congestion Fee. Tesla introduced a Supercharger congestion fee. For those locations where people are queued up to plug in, there will now be a $1 per minute penalty once 90% charge is reached. At that level, speed is slow and there isn't really much to gain. Those waiting will benefit far more. So, this was introduced to help address when those stations get busy. Something should be established. Charging etiquette isn't going to happen. Getting billed for staying upon reaching a diminishing return makes sense. Think about what will happen as NACS gets opened up to other vehicles and someday... an entry-level Tesla vehicle... is offered. Being busy and having to wait will take work to avoid. In the current closed system Tesla has, that's relatively easy to manage. The mapping software can recommend other locations. Not everyone will have something that smart being fed live data. Knowing the situation in real-time is priceless. Using ABRP, it's easy for me to check location station of that Supercharger location with MagicDock simply by bringing up the map. It's like the integration of my phone with the car. When I bring up a contact, detail pops up on the big screen in the vehicle with just a single button-push to start guidance. It will be a long time before conveniences like that get worked into DC fast-charging locations for everyone. In the meantime, expect something like this congestion-fee to help keep things moving. |
| 11-26-2023 |
Beyond The Narrative. There are some who notice the narrative and share their observations: "OK, while I personally do want to own an electric vehicle, I think this blog is a little out of touch with reality. Fact of the matter is, most of the market is not looking- nor is ready- for a fully electric vehicle as they are right now. Expensive and long-term unreliable battery designs, okay at best travel ranges, and ridiculously high purchase prices alone are enough to deter the average person from purchasing an electric vehicle. Hybrids are arguably a more safe transition, because they do save on fuel, and they do emit less emissions than a fully internal combustion engine vehicle." That was a voice of reason quite uncommon online. When you join a particular forum/group/blog, it tends to be overwhelmed by those who have already dug into their position. Looking beyond the narrative presented is very difficult. It does happen though. For those who try, I attempt to provide constructive information to stir their curiosity: We see a lot of cherry-picking when it comes to the image of Toyota. Notice how phaseout of ICE models and introduction of PHEV gets ignored completely. Those omissions say a lot. There won't be an ICE model of Camry anymore. Crown is hybrid-only and will be introducing a PHEV model. Sienna has been hybrid-only for years. The new Prius has stirred the industry, getting praise from some of its most staunch opposition of the past. All that shows Toyota's effort to move its entire fleet forward, cultivating a strong market for BEV being their next purchase while at the same time immediately reducing consumption & emissions. That's good business strategy, something other legacy automakers lack... and will struggle with in a few years. Think about what consumers will purchase in 2027 if they aren't ready for an ICE and supply of BEV is still limited. Note how most automakers don't have an actual plan for achieving 100% BEV for a long time still. What happens in the meantime? |
| 11-26-2023 |
No Option. I always wonder how poorly informed a person making this type of comment is: "Toyota is not offering a choice. That's the problem with Toyota. It's ICE or Hybrid with them. No BEV option." That reminds me of Volt enthusiasts, the specific individuals who not only didn't actually understand how Prius PHV worked, they didn't even know how their own plug-in vehicle operated. It took a long time to discover they were that clueless. It made sense arguing with such persistence when you base your belief on incorrect assumptions. In this case, that is even easier to do. By only listening to the propaganda, you would have no idea Toyota actually did offer other options. That type of deception wad called lying by omission in the past; now it is simply referred to as a narrative. The point is the same. You create a false picture of reality by leaving out vital information. I fired back at today's nonsense with: Huh? They offered an EV model of CH-R in China for years, expanded to a Lexus (UX300e) there and in Europe, then rolled out bZ3 in China and bZ4X worldwide. Next is bZ5X. Claiming "No BEV option" is a blatant attempt to misrepresent. |
| 11-26-2023 |
Mainstream Education. This question seems reasonable, until you notice the hint of bias: "I wonder if there are any stats available as to how much plug in hybrids actually get charged to use electricity - or do people get lazy and end up just driving on gas?" We have all seen the self-selecting stats. Getting unbiased feedback is quite difficult. You need to seek out those who aren't volunteering the data. It's the kind of information shared from providing context for something else. That's where the online experience exchange helps to reveal a true story. The owner will just mention their plugging pattern as a part of something else. It's not a survey answer. It's just part of their story. That's how we learn. I pointed that out in my response this way: Judging by feedback online, those PHEV owners seek out opportunity charging every time they get... to the annoyance of BEV owners, who complain about using level-2 chargers that could be better served by those without a gas-engine backup. PHEV owners attempt to squeeze out as many EV miles as possible. Outdated surveys based on older PHEV models focusing on use by business fleet drivers were a huge disservice to promoting plug-in vehicles. That data was used simply because it was the only source of large collection at the time. Many have since been called out for how much damage they did to mainstream education. |
| 11-26-2023 |
Kept Warm Overnight. I
captured a sample of my battery stats from being plugged in overnight in the
garage with temperatures approaching freezing, captured immediately after
starting. As it grows colder, I will collect more real-world data. Just like
with my Prius Prime, it's easy to see the system uses its built-in warmer to
ensure operational conditions... that means keeping the battery above
freezing. Keep in mind, energy conservation is key. Toyota
strives to identify minimums, seeking every opportunity to use the least
amount of electricity overall. Others don't take anything beyond
actual driving efficiency into account. That's why Tesla had so many "vampire"
complaints in their early years. Owners didn't recognize the "drain"
source, assuming loss of range was due to a design shortcoming the next
generation would overcome. They had no idea it was intention, nor
would they have understood why. Heck, some still don't all these years
later. In fact, that was the reason why there was backlash to Toyota's
method of display drive efficiency. The value for "mi/kWh"
included overhead, in this case charging losses. If we were to get
pre-condition, that would have been included to... a reality Tesla owners
still haven't faced. Anywho, my effort will likely take a lot of work.
The first step was to identify target temperature. Here's my
finding...
bZ4X Photo Album
13 |
| 11-26-2023 |
Heat-Pump Analysis. It was fascinating to get to just dive into the investigation with cameras rolling. Energy consumption has been a really big deal since day one with Prius, but then became even bigger of a deal once that energy transition to electricity. For A/C consumption, the switch from mechanical using gas to operation being electric was the upgrade from gen-1 to gen-2... the Classic to Iconic model. Electric heating didn't come along until gen-2 for the plug-in, the Prime model. I was really involved with that long before, since Volt enthusiasts needed an education in how energy is used and how electric consumption can really impact range. With the situation now, it is finding out by how much when a more efficient heater is used... a heat-pump. We always knew the resistance type used more electricity, but Tesla owners didn't seem to care... since acknowledging that would be admitting to a reality where Toyota had an advantage. They didn't. So, I just quietly waited for the opportunity to present actual data. In this case, I was quite curious if the setting you specified for temperature would have a major influence on draw. Turns out, it does. My video illustrated that well. This image I captured for use as a thumbnail summed it all up nicely, something I could easily share here... bZ4X Photo Album 13 |
| 11-25-2023 |
VIDEO: Heat-Pump Power. Finally getting cold, I had an opportunity to capture detail of the heat-pump in action. This video features power drawn from it, using an ODB-II live data-feed to provide insight related to impact of temperature setting. I had a feeling there would be a level of control similar to with Prius. Avoiding use of AUTO can be handy when you want to get the most of the system. In winter, I'm always well dressed anyway. You don't live in Minnesota for decades without ending up with a wardrobe of comfortable clothing appropriate for winter conditions. In other words, I would roast if the car interior were set too high. In this case, I started higher than we have set it at home, then lowered the temperature. You can clearly see the impact that setting had. It's difficult for a novice to understand what that means in terms of impact to driving range. But even with the graph shown in the video, that basic concept of energy savings is obvious. In other words, I got lucky with the logistics of filming. It was kind of a heat-scratcher how to get video of what was happening within the vehicle on film with decent sound while at the same time capturing data being presented on my tablet. Being connected to the vehicle like that is incredibly handy. But conveying that process, while it is playing out in a practical manner isn't something I had much experience with. Turns out, the results are pretty nice. The information I wanted to share are easy enough to follow. Sweet. Here's a link to see what I got... Toyota bZ4X Heat-Pump Power |
| 11-25-2023 |
Often Misunderstood. I really like seeing an effort to exercise critical thinking: "If I plug the car in when I get home from work in the evening and it is done charging in a couple of hours what is the state of the battery in the morning when it is cold outside? Is it preheated and ready to go on a cold morning? Or do I have to turn the car on for a while plugged in to get the battery preheated?" Right away, the problem of thinking that battery warming is all the same for any usage came up. It's too easy to make that assumption. In fact, this comment followed shortly after the question: "There is no battery "preconditioning" for this car." That reply was a bad answer, definitely ambiguous. I chimed into the discussion with: That's a misused term, often intermixed with cabin heating. The OP asked if the battery was preheated. It is indeed. There is a battery-heater that will automatically maintain operational temperature, which is simply above freezing (in the 40's). When others refer to "preconditioning", what they are typically speaking about is preparation of the battery for DC fast-charging. That requires a much higher temperature (the 90's or hotter). |