Personal Log  #1250

November 19, 2023  -  November 24, 2023

Last Updated:  Sun. 4/21/2024

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11-24-2023

Delay Tactic.  I found this ironic: "Toyota's strategy from the start has been about delaying change.  By proposing something seemingly superior, first fuel cells and now solid state batteries.  This is a bait maneuver in cahoots with their fossil fuel friends."  That is exactly what GM achieved by years of "stop gap" attacks, then feeding the "vastly superior" rhetoric.  It was quite remarkable how the "too little, too slow" concern raised about exactly that was dismissed.  Neither Two-Mode, nor Voltec, went anywhere.  The ultimate outcome was delay.  Now coming from Tesla, we see the very same thing with CyberTruck.  No matter how much pressure builds from BYD to finally compete by rolling out some type of entry-level offering, Tesla is doing the very opposite.  This upcoming beast is clearly a niche that will ultimately serve as a distraction from what's actually needed.  Ugh.  I didn't bother to point that out though.  There will be plenty of opportunity for that next week when the first CyberTruck deliveries take place; instead, I took the bait.  Delay is difficult to use as a primary argument when it is undeniable change is taking place, deflating the importance enthusiasts like to place on short-term achievements.  My reply was:  With so many ICE being phased out in favor of hybrids and several of them becoming PHEV, while at the same time introducing new BEV, actual change is happening across their entire passenger fleet.  Those sales are coming from showroom floor shoppers.  The step from PHEV to BEV is a very easy one.  In other words, quite the opposite is happening.  Toyota is setting the stage for future high-volume sales, nothing any supposed fossil fuel supplier would want to encourage.

11-23-2023

Outright Lies.  I ignore most of them.  This one was so over the top, it warranted some attention: "Are you for real?  Yes you can drive for about.... 5km before your 13kwh battery completely runs out.  After 10km or something your battery is going to be completely empty."  Why would anyone make such an obviously false statement?  It's so easy to disprove... to the point of being absurd.  Trying to keep my reply as short as possible, I posted:  That is an outright lie.  I live in Minnesota.  With the 8.8 kWh battery in gen-2 Prius PHV driving in the coldest of conditions with the heat-pump, I was still able to drive 25.4km (15.8 mi).  Heck, there is even a video capture of that.  Search for "Prius Prime - Energy Monitor (Winter)".  So with the larger 13.6 kWh battery from gen-3, you can go quite a bit further.

11-23-2023

Was Really Hoping.  It will be interesting to watch how GM's rollout goes.  What will they focus on for marketing?  Obsession with range seems to be the draw currently.  I don't suspect that will change between now and when Equinox EV hits the market next summer.  We'll see.  In the meantime, posts like this are interesting: "I regularly get 3.5 - 4.0 miles/kWh with a Solterra (AWD), and been looking for an additional EV for quite a while.  GM continues to disappoint.  I canceled my Blazer EV reservation after they jacked the price up by $10,000, dropped CarPlay, and released more details about how inefficient it is (and weights 2,000 pounds more than the Solterra).  I was really hoping the Equinox would work out, but..."  With so much having come from winter observations, the topic of actual efficiency... rate, not range... a summer rollout will definitely stir discussion.  We'll see the best of conditions initially, then results will plummet.  Right now, I'm on the precipice of collecting real-world data prior to the software update specifically for cold-temperature conditions.  Toyota has a delay, just like VW did... but won't take anywhere near as long.  Heck, the update to improve charging-curve for Mach-E wasn't delivered from Ford for awhile either, nearly 2 years.  Anywho, I added to the exchange with:  Watching a comparison video the other day, a screenshot of the dashboard revealed interesting Blazer EV info.  It was 83°F out.  They had driven 123 miles.  Efficiency averaged only 2.7 mi/kWh. It is rated 96 MPGe combined.  Seeing claims of 107 MPGe for Equinox EV, which is smaller, makes for an interesting discussion.  I own an AWD bZ4X, which is rated for 104 MPGe and routinely see real-world efficiency just like your Solterra.  It seems likely that Equinox will come up short, but enthusiasts will distract from that by focusing entirely on range instead.  How much electricity you consume is what matters more, not the total distance you'll rarely ever travel between charges.

11-22-2023

Toyota Is Smart.  Some are still trying to push the doom & gloom narrative about Toyota.  This example was so bad, I need to share the entire post: "2023: Toyota is smart to choose hybrids instead of moving quickly to BEVs.  2024: Toyota is smart to choose hybrids instead of moving quickly to BEVs.  2025: Toyota is smart to choose hybrids but they really should start making BEVs faster.  2026: Toyota is dumb to not be making BEVs.  2027: How did Toyota lose their lead?  2028: How did Toyota fall so hard?"  I find it bizarre, rather than desperate.  Convincing people Toyota isn't investing in BEVs doesn't work.  They are already being sold.  More will come.  When you do a search online, you get lots of links... both positive & negative.  News of any sort is better than the attempt to portray disinterest.  The controversy from bZ4X for failing to impress enthusiasts goes to further reinforce Toyota's effort to appeal to their own audience... Camry, Corolla, RAV4 shoppers.  It is very easy to see a variety of BEV models to come.  Claiming otherwise doesn't make sense.  Some try to spin that story anyway.  To them, I post:  Portraying the situation as binary reveals a weak argument.  As for any "moving quickly" claim, that is very much a subjective measure.  Reality is, Toyota is phasing out ICE, replacing their entire passenger fleet with hybrid options.  We are seeing the PHEV options grow too; Crown & CH-R will be joining Prius & RAV4.  It's quite reasonable for more to follow.  At the same time, UX300e will be getting a battery upgrade this year and there's a roadmap in place for bZ4X a battery upgrades too.  Their next BEV is on the way as well, bZ5X.  With regard to leadership, most enthusiasts don't share the priorities of Toyota.  That's why we are seeing so much hype for CyberTruck and any type of entry-level offering that can still being kicked down the road.

11-22-2023

Just Plain Silly.  Some absolutely refuse to use critical thinking: "What's happening is that Teslas are getting better and better while at the same time getting more and more affordable.  To the point where (at least here) both Model 3 and Y are less expensive than any of the Toyota's PHEVs, not to mention their only BEV.  Tesla will enter new market segments and assuming otherwise is just plain silly."  Overlooking the obvious cherry-picked bait, I stayed focused on what ultimately needs to happen.  Whatever technology an automaker embraces, it must be spread to a wide variety of choices.  Not doing that was the "too little, too slowly" concern made way back when overseers of GM's bankruptcy recovery made with regard to Volt.  They didn't want GM to get stuck in the trap... which is exactly what happened.  Recognizing the pattern is information that falls on deaf ears, enthusiasts don't want to hear it.  I post it anyway:  Tesla is repeating history, making the same mistakes as GM.  Enthusiasts are even stating the same facts about advancement of the technology.  In the meantime, the same concerns are being made... too little, too slowly.  GM should have diversified.  Volt became highly specialized.  It was an obvious mistake investing so much in optimization, neglecting opportunity to reach a wider audience.  The response of attempting to divert attention elsewhere is another repeat of history.  Bringing up Toyota PHEV is telling too.  We already know that the next upgrade for bZ4X is targeting a battery-cell improvement to deliver a 20% efficiency increase and a 40% cost reduction through the use of their bi-polar packaging.  As for using CyberTruck to showcase, that's fine.  But it turns into a stall if no plans are made to use it elsewhere.  What specific Tesla technologies will be applied to an entry-level offering?

11-21-2023 Binary.  I don't ever really expect the online discussion venues to ever break out beyond the binary mindset.  Their participation thrives on being brief.  You simply never have an opportunity to dive into detail.  That's why so much of my focus shifted over to video.  With that, I could go deep into providing substance without being overwhelming.  In fact, that content has served well as a reference... the "if you would like to know more" link.  Anywho, we're not to that point yet.  The amount of participation the simplistic thinking thrive on is what's all the rage still.  So, all I can do is point out the problem for now:

Yet another article about efficiency that doesn't actually include efficiency rate...  Such a repetitive absence of journalism isn't a good sign.  Focusing entirely on range is not informative. It tends to indicate a lack of effort & interest.

This topic from yesterday and the one today made didn't provide anything with regard to actual electricity consumption.  There is a willful blindness toward guzzling electricity, compensating for shortcomings by just adding battery capacity.  More speed & power is how BEV are being promoted.  That isn't a good sign either.

Including mi/kWh or kWh/100mi information still doesn't happen.  You're lucky to even stumble across it.  For example, pausing the video in that Blazer EV, Model Y, Ioniq 5 comparison, I could see on the dashboard 2.7 mi/kWh after 123 miles of driving with an outside temperature of 83°F.  Finding out how much it drops when the temperature is below freezing tells an interesting story.

Sadly, we're stuck with only range.  How does that help when you are using a route-planner?  It's why ABRP provides a live-data feature; the app reads efficiency rate to achieve estimate accuracy.  How does seeing a report that found a 24% loss in range during the winter help?

Knowing mi/kWh makes the calculation of range remaining simple math, taking current conditions into account... which is vital when traveling.

In short, ugh.

11-21-2023

Analysts.  They are raising concern.  Tesla is still pursuing conquest by targeting enthusiasts rather than ordinary consumers... you know, showroom shoppers.  There's an interest list that could potentially result in 2 years worth of sales for CyberTruck.  Volume would likely be barely enough to squeeze out profit on that huge investment, but there's no outlook beyond that.  How many standout vehicles with unknown specifications can ben sold long term?  Analysts continue to wonder that.  Elon tempering expectations for the upcoming initial deliveries is making that worse.  This raises question of what some actually use their pickup for.  I had someone admiring the bZ4X in a parking lot a few days ago.  He was looking to replace his large pickup with something that actually fit in the garage, something with AWD and potentially a plug.  It was a thrill to get to have an exchange like that with a total stranger.  He and his wife were quite impressed.  Anywho, the point of bZ4X was to appeal to the Prius audience.  Toyota knows how to focus on groups who will deliver sustainable profit.  That's how Camry becoming hybrid only came about.  They don't follow conquest.  They don't cater to enthusiasts.  They seek out a balance of ability & appeal, not betting their next big move on something without potential to grow... hence, analyst concern for Tesla's direction.  This is what I had to say in that discussion today:  Racing into the trap of Innovator's Dilemma has been interesting to watch.  It makes no sense working so hard to escape their early-adopter niche, then following that effort with such a bold step in the opposite direction.  It would be different if CyberTruck was used to showcase new core technology, but we haven't heard anything about Tesla's supposed intent to compete in the entry-level market.  Selling nothing but vehicles well out of financial reach of ordinary consumers will keep Tesla a specialty automaker.  Notice how one of the top-selling vehicles in the United States [Camry] will become hybrid-only next year?  That is a clear move away from ICE targeted directly at ordinary consumers.  Tesla simply ignoring that audience is what financial analysts are becoming concerned about.

11-20-2023

Patience.  Posts like this one I made today go unchallenged.  Attacks on Toyota for not delivering have become a look back on the past.  No one claims "kicking & screaming" anymore.  Antagonists have turned to "delay" claims now, saying focus has shifted to what comes next rather than the present.  Reality is, the present is a mess.  Blatant advantage for other automakers gives go reason not to pursue high-volume yet.  What's the point when you can devote resources to refining the technology instead?  After all, we have witnessed several times how generational misinformation becomes a liability later.  People do searched and find outdated links, completely unaware of improvements since then.  Those wanting to undermine turn to that as a source of misrepresenting.  Knowing all that, we find ourselves again waiting.  Patience is required.  We know Toyota is actively refining while issues of subsidies & infrastructure get addressed.  It's a good use of time that makes enthusiasts absolutely crazy.  They don't like to wait for anything.  I enjoyed pointing that out today:  As much as enthusiasts push a portrayal of EVs as being ready for the masses, they do everything they can to evade the topic of infrastructure shortcomings by just diverting attention to the Tesla experience.  Adoption of NACS has ultimately helped to feed that narrative, since timing will take far longer than the impressive given... rose-colored glasses.  We are still very much in the early years of long-distance travel resembling anything we had been accustomed to.  It simply isn't practical for most ordinary consumers yet.  Only the devoted who are well informed and fortunate enough to have reliable chargers in key locations can enjoy road-trip freedom.  A few years from now, the situation will be entirely different.  That's why it isn't worth listening to the noise about DC charging speed yet.  We'll get the software update.  We'll get more charger locations.  We'll get adapters to expand access.  Just like when hybrids were new, not all the boxes are checked.  It will take some time still.  No matter how much others attempt to blame Toyota, those facts don't add up when you consider the bigger picture.  Patience is required.

11-19-2023

Setting Realistic Expectations.  I try to provide as much background as possible.  So when people assess what is to come, they have a decent amount of information available to make a reasonable forecast.  That helps for those within reach.  Those outside of that draw conclusions based on their own sources... many of which aren't as useful.  So, there are surprises later.  For example: "With how amazing the Toyota hybrids are I was expecting much more from their first full EV but what a disappointment this car was. I ended up getting the new Prius Prime instead."  When it is just an online participant in some group, no big deal.  But when it is a new owner, not setting realistic expectations turns into disenchantment.  Sometimes, that manifests itself in the form of an angry rant.  They seek someone to blame for having assumed incorrectly.  It's why I have plans to do quite a bit of filming when the snow finally falls here and stays.  Those below freezing temperatures provide priceless real-world data... something seriously lacking with others.  It's so hypocritical to attack Toyota for having supposedly delivered a BEV with shortcomings but providing no numbers to actually support the claim.  I know bZ4X delivers, which is why I will capture a bunch of drives to show it.  For now, all I can do share history.  I asked:  Why would you expect that?  Do you remember the first hybrid?  Toyota used that initial rollout to a limited audience to collect real-world data.  Availability wasn't a priority, nor were specs to compete with vehicles topping the charts. It was a continuous improvement effort to build up to a platform & approach to be spread across the fleet.  We see the same thing playing out now, using both Prius Prime and RAV4 Prime to learn about what truly draws mainstream interest.  Appealing to enthusiasts... those who expect far more... simply isn't important. It's figuring out how to achieve profitable, sustainable sales.  Watch what happens with the next 2 Prime models (Crown & C-HR) as bZ4X evolves. It's a game of long-term strategy... chess, not checkers.

11-19-2023

Missed Something.  It's reassuring when someone who was rather frazzled by the new owner experience suddenly comes to realize there's more at play than they had assumed: "I think I missed something here.  What update and what will it do (in theory)?"  What you have been saying doesn't always sink in right away.  Heck, I deal with that problem from time to time at work.  As a software engineer with decades of experience, someone newer or with a different background may not connect the dots right until much later.  In fact, that is why I am so repetitious.  If it is worth repeating, you'll get confirmation by taking the time to explain it over and over.  Those talk-thrus help.  So, I do the same here... which ensure I don't actually miss anything either.  I posted:

Here's some thoughts to consider.

VW didn't initially rollout with pre-conditioning enabled either.  Yet, some claim Toyota should have.  That's either through lack of awareness or deliberate hypocrisy.  Tesla has pre-conditioned for ages, only it wasn't called that.  Electricity consumed was just dismissed as unknown "vampire" drains that would be reduced later.

Reality is there are tradeoffs.  To achieve the ideal 50°C (122°F) temperature for fastest DC charging, you have to sacrifice electricity.  That shortens range and is counter-productive in terms of carbon reduction.  It also takes a well thought out system with well informed users to make the best of it.  Toyota's goals & audience are quite different.

Having plugged into DCFC with outside temperature in the 30's, it was pretty easy to confirm our existing 2023 battery-heater will provide some relief to those suffering from speed-vexation.  Knowing that Toyota said they were looking into offering pre-conditioning back in February and seeing word that Japan is now getting a second major software update to address cold-weather charging speed, it's not too much of a stretch expecting something for us directly addressing DC speed criticism.

Much of the problem comes down to enthusiasts being unwilling to wait and having their own set of priorities.  We know that Toyota is striving to make the best use of the battery-capacity available (usable will increase from 65 to 67 kWh) with a 6 kW draw from the battery-heater.  That means real-world analysis of road-trip data... how much... how long... how often.

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