Random Intros.  This was quite refreshing to see: "How many EV car owners do we have here?  What type of EV car do you have?  How do you like it so far?"  Since I frequent a wide variety of venues, this change of pace was nice.  Lately, there has been quite a bit of rhetoric.  Absence of any clear direction and no real messaging is becoming a big problem.  We're seeing a lot of price slashing too.  That's a sign of trouble to come.  Those short-term choices to retain the spotlight can not only have lastly consequences, they can immediately have fall out.  Posts like this look at the market in an entirely different manner... getting feedback from actual owners, not those with undying alliance to something particular.  Heck, that's why I participate in the Canadian EV group.  They welcomed my similar background, living in Minnesota dealing with familiar cold extremes.  I also post frequently on an ID.4 group and one for RAV4 Prime.  They freely exchange info.  It's very educational and quite helpful to have when confronted with rhetoric.  There's the local EV group I have been part of for over a decade now, of which members are pleasantly surprised to see me now driving a BEV after having been the PHEV guy for so long.  Anywho, this is how I participated to today's request for info:  bZ4X replaced my 6 year old Prius Prime, the wife still has hers.  It's been great, especially the AWD in the blizzard we had a few week's ago.  The infrared-heater is awesome, a very efficient feature to compliment warming in winter and supplement warming in spring/fall.

Better.  When the article has this title, it makes you wonder what twists & turns the comment posting will take: "Reminder: EPA range for EVs isn't a highway number."  It ended up becoming a tit-for-tat like long ago when attention was on efficiency: "This is because the Series-drive Voltec system doesn't bring on the ICE until the battery is depleted or operator tells it to unlike the Toyota range extended HEV system."  Just like back then, few actually cared.  In fact, that is how the assumption that Volt wasn't a parallel type hybrid lasted for so long.  No matter how much documentation was published to point out how similar Chevy's design actually was to Toyota, the die-hard did everything in their power to bury that information.  They wanted their system to stand out, which is how "Voltec" was coined.  Being like Prius, but failing to spread to other vehicles, we humiliation beyond what they could ever accept.  That is why it was so easy for them to abandon "range anxiety" campaigning.  Turning to Bolt for salvation was a way to escape hypocrisy.  Unfortunately, that blew up in their faces too.  So, it's back to attacking Toyota with false information.  Ugh.  Here's how I dealt with that latest round of nonsense:  That misconception about how Prius Prime operates never had much of an audience.  It was very easy to see zero gas use for daily commutes, especially with the heat-pump being standard.  6 years later, the big upgrade with more range & power is about to be rolled out.

PHEV Growth.  On the surface, this seems a reasonable question: "If BYD can grow PHEV sales from 50k to 950k in only two years, why can't Toyota?  They already have world-leading PHEV tech..."  You have to dig to discover there is a mandate about to begin that basically makes a lot of the traditional vehicles in China unsellable.  Why invest in a technology improvements to their emissions to pass emission regulations for the next few years when you know its far easier to increase the size of a battery-pack in an existing hybrid to make it a plug-in?  Variety shows commitment to a technology too.  Look at how odd of a position Tesla is in with nothing but their aging Model S/3 and X/Y choices.  Unless you look closely, they all kind of look the same.  Compare Prius Prime to RAV4 Prime.  Think about what adding Crown Prime to the mix will do.  That is variety, providing strong growth potential.  Pressure for that isn't here or in Europe, yet.  It is in China already.  That made the reply easy:  Toyota is positioning for PHEV ramp up.  The new Prius will only be available as a PHEV in Europe and several hybrids will be getting a plug option.  The advantage in China is they don't have large anti-PHEV campaigns like we have here and in Europe.

The Problem: More.  It became apparent that many had no idea what GM had struggled with in the past or what it was up against in the present.  Obsession with range & speed has blinded so many, they completely lost touch with purpose.  Promotion of BEV benefit as little-maintenance and cheap-operation is gone.  We rarely hear that anymore.  It's all about being able to recharge within minutes and being able to take long road-trips with few stops.  That makes achieving sustainable profit nearly impossible... because more is never good enough.  It's a trap enthusiasts willingly fall into.  They should know better from having been burned so many times for the same thing in the past.  More is never good enough.  That's why how the purchase was accomplished makes no difference to them.  A sale is a sale.  Regardless of long-term consequence, they celebrate empty victories.  There's no sense of a bigger picture.  Ugh.  Some never learn.  I ended up posting this and moving on:  The problem came about from the usual challenge... not having a sustainable means of profit.  Conquest sales depended upon subsidies.  Having a tax-credit was short-term, since no one shopping the showroom floor was expected to buy one.  It was taking advantage of a niche.  Dealers would embrace what followed.  This move to offer Equinox, Blazer and Silverado is long-term, what has been planned to follow... what showroom shopper will discover and what dealers will be able to sell at a familiar profit.

Upset & Dismay.  In general, people don't pay attention.  The well-informed knew about 2 years ago this was coming.  GM stated intent with their Ultium battery platform.  It was the successor to what Bolt used.  Continuing to produce an outdated design simply makes no sense.  This is what "know your audience" is so vital.  Enthusiasts treat that as obvious.  Owners of Bolt, those who were clearly drawn to the opportunity which resulted in a conquest sale, view their purchase as support of a new effort from GM.  They had no idea it would end.  So when this news discontinuation came, they expressed upset & dismay.  That makes sense too.  The sentiment shared from owners participating in the Earth Day event I participated in treated their Bolt as GM's competitive offering.  They had absolutely no idea it would be abandoned in favor of models of Pickup & SUV instead.  They assumed GM was simply starting small and working their way larger.  The number of those who sincerely believed that caught me off guard.  I didn't realize just how large that audience really was.  Industry outlook suddenly shifted from "What is Toyota doing?" to one of "Has GM lost its mind?"  There's a sense of confusion now, being let down without any type of realistic next-step.  We all know the first Ultium models under the Chevy label will be very expensive.  Equinox EV certainly won't begin its rollout with a base model.  Selling a more profitable well-loaded choice will be easy.  Heck, we will inevitably see long wait-lists for that offering.  Nonetheless, the here-and-now is what we have to deal with.  I posted my take on the situation as:  I'm shocked so many people have been caught off guard by this news.  When GM revealed Bolt was a money-loser, that it would never make a profit, I thought this outcome was obvious.  Apparently, it was not.

Bolt Discontinued, setting the stage.  Unwilling to listen, I got a what-about attempt: "Toyota benefited from subsidies as well from their PHEVs.  At least, they did until everyone shifted to EVs and Toyota was left out."  Rather than recognize that GM has a very different audience, it was just a sad effort to change the topic.  Ugh.  Done with his nonsense, I wrapped up the exchange with:  Know your audience gets posted on a regular basis.  The reason for it is Toyota targeted their own loyal customers, those showroom shoppers looking to replace their aged Toyota with a new Toyota.  That is not what GM did with neither Volt nor Bolt.  Both were exploits targeting early-adopters seeking opportunity.  That fundamental difference is what this exchange is about.  Look at Camry hybrid and Corolla hybrid and RAV4 hybrid, then RAV4 Prime.  Who they are intended to appeal to is undeniable.  The strategy worked too.  Toyota is now making more profit on hybrid sales than from traditional vehicles.  That is a "game changer" success.  The new Prius builds upon that, seeking out not only former Prius owners while also taking advantage of market opportunity other automakers are choosing to ignore.  It's all a long-term strategy setting the stage for lots of PHEV sales, which set the stage for EV sales.

Bolt Discontinued, missing the point.  It continued to get worse: "More word salad... What makes you think those conquest customers will go back?"  Having been through this before, 3 times is how I know.  Remembering Two-Mode, gen-1 Volt and gen-2 Volt isn't difficult.  Heck, you could even sight gen-1 Bolt as an example too.  I didn't though.  I focused on the overall objective, stating:  Use of "game changer" was with regard changing what existing loyal buyers of GM vehicles would purchase.  In other words, the point is to get someone who has an old Equinox ICE to replace it with a new Equinox EV.  This is precisely the situation the bankruptcy oversight committee expressed concern about with regard to true business change... too little, too slowly.  Think about how long it has taken for GM to actually change one of their own key vehicles.  Conquest was a means of establishing reputation & experience by attracting short-term opportunity seekers, those willing to take a chance with new tech but by no means the target audience.  At least with Toyota, there is no denying bZ4X does not draw upon the RAV4 audience... a key customer for Toyota sales.  As the platform matures, that same audience will be watching.  They are showroom shoppers... which is the point.

Bolt Discontinued, game changer.  What do you do when you encounter someone with no history and no understanding of macro economics?  His perspective is on of anecdotal observation, not business intent.  This is what that sounds like: "So, lots of conquest sales, but it failed as a game changer?  Didn't it sell, do not know, 2x the numbers in Q1 that Toyota has allowed for the entire year?  That's a fail?"  It was the closed-minded type reply to be wary of.  Pretty much no matter what I say, he won't listen.  He already made up his made and will think I'm being unreasonable.  I really enjoyed my economics classes in college, both macro & micro.  They opened my eyes to the bigger picture.  Small victories are not necessarily a good thing.  In this case, we were told from GM itself that Bolt would never be profitable.  The platform was serving as a launch-pad, a means of gaining experience and building reputation.  That was before having to recall all 142,000 of them for battery replacement.  Since then, Bolt has become a massive loss-leader.  Discontinuation was inevitable.  Telling someone that who doesn't want to hear it is pointless.  So, I replied with:  The goal posts were established upon rollout.  The intended target was GM own loyal customers.  Without them changing, it's the same game.

Bolt Discontinued, announcement.  It came today.  GM announced production of Bolt was coming to an end.  Such a press release shortly after Earth Day makes sense.  At our event, there were 4 present.  Everyone was singing praise for the same EV too expense to be competitive.  Sound familiar?  Just like Honda Insight, it really never stood a chance in this market... but wow, did the enthusiasts ever like it.  Here's what I had to say about the news:  Yup, we knew that was coming.  It simply made no sense heavily promoting their new battery & platforms, while holding onto what was supposedly to become obsolete.  For those paying attention, the potential for Silverado EV to be produced on the line Bolt is currently on was mentioned early on.  When you look at Bolt, it has its place.  The conquest sales were impressive.  But the small vehicle type does nothing to change GM's own status quo.  It did not target their own customer base.  In short, it failed as a "game charger" the same way Volt did.

Ordinary Commute.  Today was the day.  My wife and I got in the 4X and drove to work.  It was the first ordinary commute.  Our routine together includes a stop at a local coffeeshop, one of those non-franchise places with a unique inviting atmosphere.  It was a nice morning, still shaking off some of the cold.  We won't need the heater for too much longer.  Then, I'll get a real taste for what efficiency awaits.  There's to rush for Summer.  I thoroughly enjoy what Spring will bring.  Here in Minnesota, that's quite unpredictable.  The absence of any pattern is welcome, a variety that keeps things fresh... like sudden flooding.  Having AWD and high ground-clearance now is an interesting paradigm shift.  We can favor my 4X for the rough stuff, keeping her Prius Prime out of harm's way.  Mine did fine in the harsh weather, proving its worth.  But with the crazy Winter brings here, there's no reason not to take advantage of what I have now... which is why I drove the commute today.  There are much nicer days to come soon for her to drive.  I'll deal with potholes in the meantime, which have been especially bad this year.  The commute to work ended with a parking spot in the ramp at a charger.  My plan to take advantage of that opportunity resulted in an estimated 82 miles of EV range being added.  I got 26.76 kWh of electricity from that, far more than I ever got with my Prius Prime.  I suspect many commutes in the future will be like that too, what I can now call ordinary.

Long Game.  It's sad that this needs to be said, it should be well accepted at this point:  Anyone expecting strong PHEV sales last year from Toyota would have been disconnected with reality.  Even without shortage issues, the Prius Prime available was on its 6th year and Prius itself was dying on the vine.  About to be replaced and there being no benefit from selling more (especially due to the "never plug-in" undermine efforts), it was best just to let supply & inventory come to an end naturally.  As for RAV4 Prime, that's really more of a test-the-waters opportunity for higher volume potential with Corolla Cross following rollout of the next-gen Prius Prime.  Toyota plays the long game... which really irritates most enthusiasts.

As for Toyota, status has been assessed pretty much entirely on bZ4X rollout.  The reality that Toyota is delivering BEV and PHEV platforms which could easily take advantage of battery advancements... like significant energy-density increase... is something naysayers have been avoiding.  The supposed "range & speed" problem would suddenly be a thing of the past without having to roll out a next-gen platform.