Personal Log  #1171

October 11, 2022  -  October 14, 2022

Last Updated:  Thurs. 10/27/2022

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10-14-2022 Limited Resources.  This is a great example of how people hear what they want.  When a Toyota executive made a comment about how hybrids may help reduce emissions more than EVs, not a single person reporting on it noted total vehicle impact.  All they heard was "300,000 hybrids" and "90,000 fully electric vehicles".  No thought whatsoever was given to the other 210,000 vehicles.  It is literally the same old nonsense we heard from Volt enthusiasts all those years ago.  They presented the same flawed logic, only focusing on the portion they felt important.  That intentional turning of a blind-eye so you only see what you want is a powerful enemy to overcome.  It's the "rose-colored" glasses problem.  In this case, there is a refusal to acknowledge limited resources are still a barrier.  When only so many cells are available, what do you deliver.  I responded to the latest nonsense with:

Try again.  Look at the goal of delivering 300k vehicles.  You have enough cells to make to make 90k BEV each with 80 kWh packs.  Will the carbon reduction from those 90k BEV really be enough to offset carbon emissions from the 210,000k ICE vehicles?

The same amount of cells divided amongst 300k vehicles would provide 24 kWh each.  That's enough capacity to enable a not-so-aerodynamic vehicle like RAV4 Prime to travel 50 miles with just electricity.

300,000 vehicles = 90,000 BEV + 210,000 ICE
300,000 vehicles = 300,000 PHEV with more than 40 miles of EV range

Since most people drive less than 40 miles per day, it should easy to understand the concept.  With more charging opportunities becoming available as infrastructure improves, the same PHEV can squeeze out more EV miles per day.

This isn't rocket science, it's a matter of not wanting to face the inconvenient truth of how to deal with limited resources.

10-14-2022

What Will Happen.  Notice how those claiming doom & gloom don't actually say anything?  There's no story of how that will happen or even how the success of others will be achieved.  There's always just a story of how making more gigafactories is the key to victory.  Very real problems, like premature lock in, don't exist in their version of reality.  GM's new Ultium battery requires cobalt and nickel still.  Though those will use less than their current batteries, that won't compare to the elimination of them that LFP achieved.  Will the tradeoff be worth it?  How will marketing deliver that message?  What will the next step be if it fails to be competitive?  Not getting any type of scenario rundown from those online is a sign they aren't really taking the situation seriously.  Many people write a thesis about next steps.  Getting nothing but talking points to declare failure is hardly an example of critical thinking.  You can start a discussion with surprisingly little though, saying just enough to stir interest.  I gave it a try with this example:  Gasoline powered cars won't be banned until long after mandates ending ICE sales begin.  Basically, those vehicles will end up becoming too expensive to drive.  It won't be until the 2040's when that happens though.  In the meantime as demand drops, efficiencies of consolidation will keep gas prices down.  On the flip side, PHEV with 40-mile ranges already dramatically reduce the need for gas, stretching a tank to last for months.  With longer ranges and the ability to recharge faster, you can see how Toyota has a point about BEV benefit.  There's a diminishing return when the gas-engine of a PHEV can last for decades due to being used so infrequently.

10-14-2022 For The Environment.  As attacks on Toyota continue, antagonist strategy reveals conflicting position.  This was great: "If you support long range BEVs, it can no longer be under the guise of "for the environment".  I was pleasantly amused by that person stepping up to expose that argument weakness.  It's contradictory and I was all too happy to point that out:

The hypocritical nature of their argument is astonishing.  For many years, they claimed the biggest weakness of PHEV was having to carry "dead weight" of the gas-engine.  Now, those same people are in favor of carrying "dead weight" for long-range capacity.  Why?

If the DC fast-charging infrastructure will be built out as they claim, that long-range capacity is unnecessary.  It is a contradictory stance.  They backed themselves into a corner.  Notice how automakers disagree with them by offering a choice of less capacity.

   232 miles = Kia EV6 (58 kWh)
   230 miles = Ford F-150 Lightning Pro SR (98 kWh)
   224 miles = Ford Mustang Mach-E Select SR AWD (70 kWh)
   224 miles = Nissan Ariya (63 kWh)
   220 miles = Hyundai Ioniq 5 (58 kWh)
   220 miles = Hyundai Ioniq 6 (53 kWh)
   209 miles = VW ID.4 (62 kWh)

Notice how that really messes up their narrative of Toyota's BEV range being inadequate.

   252 miles = bZ4X FWD (71.4 kWh)
   228 miles = bZ4X AWD (72.8 kWh)

How can they argue for longer range as a necessity when clearly the automakers see it as dead weight, offering more as a premium upgrade?  Why pay for more weight knowing it will reduce efficiency?  Less waste is better for the environment.

10-14-2022

Continuous Improvement.  I really enjoyed responding to this nonsense: "Several countries are banning new PHEV sales from around 2035.  If Toyota carries on at the present rate then they can say goodbye to the EU, Norway and the UK."  Their impatience and failure to see the bigger picture leaves antagonists vulnerable to exposing weakness is their argument.  They end up pushing too far and revealing they really don't have any substance to back up their claims.  I often encourage them to run faster toward that cliff.  They do too.  Here's some of that encouragement:  We know Toyota is shooting for 7 new dedicated-platform BEV, along with 8 more EV converted models, by 2025.  Their goal for plug-ins is roughly 35% by 2030, with the Lexus brand in Europe 100% at that point.  Growth will continue on to 2035.  What is there to say "goodbye" to?  Take a serious look at the obsession with large Pickups and SUVs.  We already see signs of trouble in the market, where dependency on their high profit is a big problem as sales shift elsewhere.  Yet, much hope is placed on those becoming BEV and continuing to carry automakers forward.  In other words, we see judgment of mandate outcome based upon an unconstructive perspective.  We also see the denial of what Toyota excels at... continuous improvement.

10-14-2022

Maintaining 24% Sales.  Despite the greater challenge this year than last, Toyota is maintaining their "electrified" sales.  Last year through third-quarter was 24.2%.  This year, that same duration is only down 0.1% despite having even more of a supply problem.  Of course, if there wasn't a bZ4X recall it would have been a wash.  Anywho this is what stirred the discussion in that direction: "I'd give them the benefit of the doubt if "hybrids" were anywhere near their highest sales numbers.  But, no, ICE is what they really sell.  This is greenwashing."  That is what happens when you assume.  Here's what happens when someone points out that absence of actual data and provides a bit of perspective:  Toyota's sales ratio through Q3 this year was 24.1%, with continued growth as more ICE models get phased out.  As for greenwashing, who is promoting BEV then selling lots and lots of ICE instead?  Take a look at what GM has been doing.  Seeing Toyota discontinue ICE in favor of hybrid that easily convert to PHEV, while at the same time establishing new BEV platforms, is what?

10-14-2022 Not Constructive.  I didn't need to read any further into this rant: "But the problem with Toyota is that they haven't been able to deliver, of their two mass market PHEV models..."  I did.  It was not constructive.  It really was nothing but a rant.  He was complaining, placing blame on Toyota for holding back the entire industry.  It only takes a moment to notice the problem GM and Ford created by depending so heavily on their extremely expensive Pickups & SUVs.  That is the same problem that contributed heavily to their collapse 15 years ago.  Rather than actually improve what they sold, focus shifted to higher profit vehicles instead.  Fortunately, both see that history threatening to repeat.  But based on financial ranking lately, it is already too late.  When the market sours and interest rates begin to climb, you better have a change plan already in play.  Neither does.  Both were hoping for a few more years of more prosperous times.  Oh well.  At least Toyota planned ahead, even if none of the keyboard warriors think so.  This is what I had to say about all that:

That was a choice.  It made far more sense focusing on delivering ICE and Hybrids during the supply shortage and production stops than to build PHEV, especially when you consider where they were physically being built.  The fact that the next-gen PHEV system will debut next year adds to that benefit of priority shift.  A gain already from that is their BEV rollout delay will better coincide.

Offering two different types of plug-in shows flexibility to deal with infrastructure challenges.  Toyota recognizes those 100% mandates for 2035 will come serious pushbacks from used vehicle sales.  It's pretty much inevitable that vehicles with an ICE will continue to be driven on those roads long afterward and new BEV purchases simply won't be realistic for some.  But if the PHEV continue to evolve in parallel, what difference does it make.

Think about where battery advancements will take us.  When even a PHEV's smaller battery-pack can withstand more C during fast-charging, times when the ICE is still used will be reduced.  Mostly EV driving is already realistic.  Used vehicles with value-added as they age (due to infrastructure improvement) make sense.

Ideally, we'd have all states following CA rules right away.  But we all know it is going to take longer and be more expensive that what the effort now implies.  Heck, Minnesota became the first state in the Midwest to adopt CA rules... which don't include the 2035 that followed... back in the summer of 2021 but the requirements cannot begin until January 1, 2024.  How much longer will take for the rest to start their own process of pushing transition?

btw, the NEVI project (funding of those initial 500,000 DC fast-chargers along travel corridors) takes us all the way to 2026.  Think about how many highways that aren't included and how none of that addresses non-highway funding.  It won't be until 2030 that we seeing enough volume to get landlords to spend enough to really make a difference for their renters.

10-14-2022

What Promise?  Out of the blue, we got this: "Now, if they had a strong line of PHEVs like they had promised years ago, and they had decent range and performance, maybe."  I know the person.  He's an active online participant and is usually constructive.  That comment was not.  With all these years of following Toyota plans, I haven't ever heard of a promise.  I was quite curious what he thought Toyota had stated.  Sadly, I probably won't ever find out.  At best, I expect an assumption based upon speculation... not something from Toyota itself.  What promise could it have been?  When we got RAV4 Prime, it was a surprise to many... especially with such range & power and so quickly.  Just halfway through Prius Prime's generation-cycle was way faster than GM's turnaround.  Volt stumbled from late 2010 to 2015 before the system was upgraded... 5 years.  Prius Prime was rolled out in late 2016 and RAV4 Prime was rolled mid 2019... just 2.5 years later.  Ugh.  Where is the constructive perspective?  Or course, what does "decent range and performance" mean?  The vague arguments are returning.  Ugh, again.  Here's how I replied:  We knew the tech in Prius Prime would be spread to other vehicles.  It was indeed for RAV4 Prime.  Next, it will be going to both Crown and Harrier/Venza.  Following that will likely be Corolla Cross.  The PHEV tech itself is evolving at the same time with the expectation of a next-gen Prius Prime reveal next summer.  Don't forget about the rollout of BEVs too.  Seeing progress continue, though slower due to the supply & pandemic challenges, is still progress.  It's comprehensive too, spanning a variety of vehicle types across the fleet.  As for a promise, what are you claiming Toyota stated?

10-13-2022

GM Plans.  I stumbled across this today: "GM plans to transition its portfolio to all zero-emission vehicles by 2035.  In the next three years, GM said it will bring 28 new EVs to markets worldwide."  Failing to make their previous promise of 20 by 2023, just move the goal-posts.  Right?  Ugh.  People are so gullible.  Did you know that top-selling teeny-tiny BEV in China counts as one of GM's offerings?  True, it does indeed help shift us away from petroleum.  But for just $4,000 it's not really much of a game-changer.  Heck, it doesn't even make sense when claims of "anemic" and "pathetic" are used to describe bZ4X.  That's such an extreme comparison, it would be a stretch to even call someone making it hypocritical.  If fact, even desperate is pointless.  Yet, we keep getting the "all in" nonsense.  Bolt production will end when GM's pickup BEV production begin.  That plant will be converted, which means Equinox EV will be looked upon as a replacement.  That's supposed to happen in 2024.  What about in the meantime?  Will anyone even remember the previous "over promise, under deliver" plan?

10-12-2022

Sands Of Denial.  The narrative continues: "It is shocking to see Toyota willfully bury its head in the sands of denial as the rest of the industry rapidly electrifies..."  If you read & listen carefully each of these efforts to mislead require a belief that Toyota doesn't offer plug-in hybrids.  Over and over, it's the same thing.  They focus on Prius and only refer to "hybrids".  The reality of having all-electric driving up to 135 km/h available for 6 years already, with 4 prior year to that providing all-electric driving up to 100 km/h, is too much to accept.  Complete with a heat-pump, it's proof Toyota isn't actually scrambling to catch up.  Focus was on refining the tech before going big.  What is there to gain from rushing?  How many VW owners are now frustrated with the painfully slow rollout of software updates?  The convenience of OTA (Over The Air) is lost when you end up waiting over a year for an update.  It's not a good way to retain interest from a conquest sale and only serves to sour interest for loyal VW customers considering a BEV.  Think about what it takes to keep them from just buying another traditional vehicle instead.  Toyota is well aware of this problem... hence not catering to enthusiasts.  Needless to say, many still don't see that.  In this case, I replied to that nonsense with:  Huh?  Toyota delivered full EV drive, including heat-pump, 6 years ago with Prius Prime.  The upgrade RAV4 Prime introduced was liquid-cooling.  Now we see bZ4X taking that, plus experience gained from the CH-R and UX300e converts, to deliver a BEV using a dedicated platform.  Claims of denial don't match the facts.

10-11-2022

Asking The Right Question.  This wasn't it: "Do they use salt on your roads?"  That's an easy trap to fall into.  You've known that using salt on roads helps to deal with ice, but at the same time harms your vehicle.  While being true, it's not a binary situation.  Using less and applying it more precisely will significantly reduce the harm... as I attempted to point out:  It also depends upon how the salt is applied.  Here in Minnesota, they no longer use the drop salt nuggets from a truck method.  That type of distribution was quite crude, requiring significantly more salt than necessary and was poorly applied.  Much of it ended up as runoff and contributed to vehicle corrosion.  Now, they carefully spray a salt liquid prior to storms.  That dramatically reduced salt waste, which in turn should also dramatically reduce impact to vehicles.

10-11-2022

Concrete Steps.  Gotta love when a writer known for writing articles to spin Toyota as a villain puts this as a bullet in the top of his latest: "Toyota remains unwilling to exit ICE manufacturing at a time when everyone else is making concrete steps toward BEVs."  I certainly haven't seen anything yet, despite asking many for supposed plans.  There are none.  Automakers are still just testing the waters, figuring out how to move beyond success of early-adopter sales.  They know the low-hanging fruit is pretty much gone at this point.  What enthusiasts find acceptable, mainstream consumers will not.  This next stage is a challenge.  It's why there is a boom that follows.  Many will flounder for awhile, trying different things before finding something that works for the masses.  Remember, this next generation of vehicle must be more refined, faster to build, easier to sell, and be profitable, while at the same time appeal to the masses.  Idiosyncrasies that were easily dismissed when the industry was first establishing itself tend to not be acceptable anymore.  It all starts with having a plan.  What vehicles will adopt the new tech?  What vehicles won't have a future?  What vehicles will be introduced as a replacement?  When will this happen?  How will this happen?  Where will this happen?  So far, we only get an "all in" declaration without an detail whatsoever.  There's no milestones to measure progress.  It's just a date in the distance future without any penalty for not achieving the supposed goal.  That's the on-going nonsense enthusiasts are not taking seriously... hence their label.  Really supporting an effort means being a supporter, someone who accepts bad news and proposes means of addressing it.  That starts with knowing what the current steps are.  Since this writer implies others have concrete steps already, I asked what they were... not expecting to get a reply with anything constructive:  Concrete steps?  There are basically just promises without commitment or consequence?  We're still seeing investment in ICE from other automakers too, only development & volume will be reduced.  Steps are void of detail.  Vague is not concrete.

 

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