Personal Log  #1170

October 6, 2022  -  October 11, 2022

Last Updated:  Thurs. 10/27/2022

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10-11-2022

What Matters.  It's nice to see some posts online being objective, recognizing the responsibility Toyota took right away for bZ4X.  Sure, it looked bad... but wheels weren't actually falling off.  Listening to the media though, you would think there were a series of accidents and efforts refusing to accept blame.  Heck, I even saw a photoshopped image portraying a supposed incident.  Of course, even those not telling tales of woe aren't getting fact right.  Many pointing out the recall fix will soon be available don't actually know what the fix is.  As helpful as that is to know, it isn't what matters.  Thankfully, that message is slowing getting out.  I'm doing my part to spread the word:  Yup, stepping up to the plate was a wise move... quite a difference from what we saw with how GM handled Bolt.  Toyota stopped sales as soon as the problem was confirmed, offering options to owners by giving the choice of buyback or compensation.  We now know surface & thickness of the hub was not as needed, alloy for the bolt was altered for improved strength, and washers were added for improved grip.  When Lexus was first established, it was response to the customer that made the difference... not the problem itself.  In fact, this recall should quickly become a point of trivia if the fix itself was handled well.  That's the goal.  Consumers know there will be initial stumbles with a new platform.  The response to them is what matters.

10-10-2022

No Fix Available.  That guy creating anti-Toyota videos released a new one on October 8 claiming there is still no fix available.  That was an outright lie, since we got a head's up on October 5 and lots of articles related to the announcement on October 6 from Toyota followed.  It was big news worldwide; yet, he made no mention of it whatsoever.  It was clearly an effort to push the narrative one last time.  People want there to be a conspiracy.  To find out Toyota was really trying and got tripped up by a manufacturing issue would be a huge let down for them.  A comment from that video helped that misleading along: "The "wheel" problem sounds like a smoke screen."  There were a few others clearly in denial still, desperately clinging on to the narrative hoping it to somehow survive.  Now 4 days later, some just refuse to let it go.  I posted a reply to that "sounds like" comment:  It is a distraction for those hoping people won't notice Toyota is already working on bZ5X (the Highlander BEV equivalent), two new PHEV, and a next-gen Prius PHEV.  Claims that there still isn't a fix for the recall is evidence of that, since having a fix resulted in production resuming.  Also, the narrative of Toyota encouraging buybacks is further evidence of undermining efforts underway.  The real story buyback being offered, but encouragement came in the form of $5,000 for being willing to wait for the fix.

10-10-2022

Some Reported.  I never got a response from questioning this: "After several months since the issue was originally noted, Toyota says it's a supplier issue, with hub bolts that could vibrate loose after sharp turns or braking - very quickly, apparently, as the wheel separation happened in some reported vehicles after being driven just a few miles."  That was in the opening paragraph of a recall fix article.  All that time, I never heard of any such report.  In fact, with extensive research I only came across a single incident (a very short video clip without any detail whatsoever).  Of course, the claim totally contradicts what we saw on all the video reviews.  How could so many test drives, ones specifically that tested extremes, never even hit at trouble?  It makes now sense.  What would the source of this article's claim be then?  Needless to say, I was annoyed and posted:  Is there a link for those supposed reports?  Detail like what "separation" means is helpful too.  From what I encountered, it simply meant the wheel was no longer being held tight, that it didn't actually fall off.  In fact, Toyota's mention highlighted you would get a clue to that happening from the bolt beginning to squeak.

10-09-2022

Next Step.  It's nice to see some looking forward now, asking questions of what follows now that the recall is now in the fix stage: "When will they be getting these to dealers?  I could tell in a millisecond if it was the car for me or not if I could just test drive it."  I was happy to see that and more than willing to provide an answer:  That approach of simply getting to see the vehicle in action is a powerful motivator.  In fact, that was a key component to the success of Prius and the Toyota hybrids to follow.  Problem is, that comes from owners not salespeople.  It's the challenge we face next.  I'm very fortunate in that regard, despite living in the Midwest where EV inventory is basically non-existent.  There is an EV owners group here that has public showings on a regular basis and I just happen to live just 6 miles from the highway where IRA funding has been approved to build 6 new DC fast-charger locations.  So, it's only a matter of time before I start hosting gatherings to show my bZ4X.  As for dealer inventory, my state (Minnesota) will officially begin CA-rule adherence on January 1, 2024.  That will require automakers to supply dealers with vehicles.

10-08-2022

Not Investing.  Some of my annoyance is alleviated by the reality that those attempting to discredit Toyota are getting desperate.  It's easy to see too: "Toyota is king of hybrid ICEVs.  As BEVs are emerging, Toyota has clung to ICEVs and is not investing in BEV development or manufacturing..."  That nonsense of the past, pretending there is no such thing as a hybrid with a plug, is far more difficult of a tale to tell.  Since so many people still assume hybrids need to be plugged in anyway and Toyota continues to phaseout traditional vehicles with hybrids... some of which will later offer a plug... it's a nice position to be in.  Those same people are now seeing infrastructure being built.  Public charging stations are investments.  Hybrids are investments.  Knowing that and seeing that Toyota offers something with a plug, the tables turn.  That images of "laggard" falls apart... and has already.  No one posts that label anymore.  It is evidence of past spin no longer working.  Yeah!  I'm thrilled to see that and delighted to post replies like this:  Didn't invest?  What do you call the full EV drive system in the PHEV, entirely electric operation with no dependency on an ICE?  In fact, the ICE is clutched out when there's plenty of plug-supplied electricity available.  Complete with liquid-cooling and heat-pump, all that hardware & software transfers over to a BEV.  Heck, even the battery-cells themselves can be shared.  They obviously invested in in a dedicated platform too, including spending additional resources on hub design.  As for what comes next, it isn't the nonsense you posted.  They already have their "4" sized platform and have already moved on the "5" size.  At the same time they are introducing more PHEV and discontinuing ICE-only vehicles.

10-08-2022

Who & What.  To watch the narrative unravel is fascinating.  When Toyota didn't have a BEV presence in the market, it was easy to make up a reason why.  You could say just about anything to make the "anti-EV" sentiment seem plausible.  That has changed with bZ4X production & sales poised to resume.  Now, antagonists are scrambling to come up with new messaging.  They need to retain their scapegoat.  But with owners about to start sounding off, the last thing they want to do is draw attention to that real-world data.  That means turning the discussion to something difficult to substantiate... like the who & what for "at home" charging.  Absence of detail is easy to whitewash when it comes to households; people just assume their are no setup challenges.  But for apartments, that's quite a conundrum.  The result is outright dismissal.  Toyota is supposedly just unable to meet manufacturing capacity, so they are inventing a problem.  Catch is, no one can provide any proof.  Somehow, all those landlords will find a way to provide adequate charging capacity.  It's quite obvious too.  Not a single person I confront is ever able to explain how this will be achieved.  What exactly will be delivered?  Who will be paying for it?  Ugh.  This barrier was easy to see coming.  Still, enthusiasts refuse to address it.  I'm getting annoyed:  That's just a narrative.  People are making up what Toyota said because they don't want to face the actual message... that infrastructure support won't be there in time.  It's easy to prove too.  Show us the plans on how landlords will provide charging for their renters.  Absence of plans is a dead giveaway people pointing fingers at Toyota are not taking the situation seriously.  Notice how no one wants to take responsibility for DC fast-charging stations?  To be able to support 100% sales being EV, all that must be well established by then. Tell us what an ordinary consumer should expect in 2035... who will be providing what?


10-08-2022
Bankruptcy.  Exactly as anticipated, attacks continue.  They are getting increasingly desperate too: "Toyota is going to achieve "zero emissions" the old fashioned way: Bankruptcy."  I always find such claims amusing.  For such doom & gloom, you have to cherry-pick information.  Looking at the bigger picture tells an entirely different story... one antagonists don't like me to tell... a lengthy reply with lots of facts to consider:

Think about the cost of this recall.  By stepping up to the plate and immediately taking responsibility (quite the opposite of GM's response to Bolt) they made the 232 existing owners happy.  For those choosing buyback, it was a quick & painless process.  For those choosing to wait, they were given $5,000 for the inconvenience.

Toyota didn't forget the rough start Lexus had.  Toyota knows the importance of being there for their customers, that pleasing the media or enthusiasts doesn't matter in the end.  The supposed embarrassment and inevitable bankruptcy doesn't carry any weight.  It's just online rhetoric.

Reality is, Toyota shoppers will focus on the same priorities as in the past.  They will get a vehicle they can trust, seemingly simple & boring, but very reliable.  Watching reviews for bZ4X confirm those traits delivered are desired strengths for that audience.  Owners sharing their experiences will further reinforce that focus.

Ironically, the bankruptcy reference does apply.  Some automakers will struggle to progress beyond their initial niche.  Not only does Toyota already have a well refined EV system (as the PHEV and BEV converts have demonstrated), they now also have a well engineered wheel hub.  That extra attention could be a gain, as the market grows with a confusing mix of BEV choices and very long delivery waits.

We know bZ3 and bZ5X are in the works.  We know 2 more PHEV and a next-gen Prius Prime is coming too.  We know the narrative of anti-EV will fall apart as more plug-in options roll out... sending clear confirmation of investment in change directly targeting their own loyal customers and what they deem important.

10-08-2022

Being Optimistic.  I liked seeing this: "maybe soon we will begin getting reports of the cars performance, charging, efficiency, etc"  It was buried within a thread discussing the recall fix, on the big Prius forum.  That forward-looking attitude is always refreshing.  I replied to that with:  Don't expect much.  Efficiency isn't a priority for most supposed journalists.  They still focus on range.  There may actually be something in terms of charging curve software tweaks, but I wouldn't expect much from that either since reports for other vehicles remain limited & vague.  What will be fascinating is the discovery of that infrared heater.  Radiant warming is new, something Toyota will clearly have an advantage with.  That type of innovation will rub those favoring other automakers the wrong way.

10-07-2022 Excuses.  There are a few individuals who absolutely hate me.  When I post, they will downvote... even when the post is nothing but a verifiable fact.  They claim I work for Toyota, attempting to draw attention away from what I said by attacking me.  They work hard to spin my words.  They will even outright lie.  To most of that, I stick to the one-sentence replies, sticking to the point and being concise.  That approach still works well.  In fact, a moderator deleted one of the attacks yesterday but retained my reply to it for that very reason.  Every now and then though, I do reply in length.  This was such an example: "The RAV4 Prime has NEVER been available in decent quantities so current excuses fall flat.  And the Prius Prime situation seems even worse!"  It was an obvious attempt to distort history through omission.  I set the record straight with fact reminders:

Excuses?  With the "all in" automakers having to pause orders and raising prices, it's getting really difficult to argue against Toyota's diversified approach.

Reality was, tax-credits were on the verge of expiring with no chance of an as-is renewal.  There was simply no incentive for ramp up.  RAV4 hybrids were being purchased as fast as they could be produced during the supply shortage.  With rollout of the first "bZ" nameplate vehicle within reach of existing tax-credits, that BEV opportunity would benefit more by the lower PHEV quantity.  Reveal of the next-gen PHEV system during tax-credit phaseout would well to show advancement of the entire fleet is taking place too.

What is the plan for the "all in" automakers depending entirely on limited quantities?  We already see deliver waits of +6 months, prior to DCFC rollout ramp-ups.

In other words, you backed yourself into a corner.  It's not about "current" activity for anyone.  It's all about what things will look like a year from now for everyone.  Think about how the landscape would have changed seeing the first round of IRA funding for DCFC installs, when people actually see infrastructure being established.

Make whatever excuses you want in the meantime.

10-07-2022

Recall Summary.  It became obvious very quick that most people have no idea what recall was really about or had any detail about the solution.  They had been told so many times that "wheels fell off" and that Toyota was suffering from a massive embarrassment, that it was best to just give up on them.  Reality is, there were only 3 incidents of loose hub-bolts reported and a single record of a wheel actually coming off.  We have no clue what the circumstances were.  For all we know, noise from the bolt was heard and just ignored.  Ironically, I actually had that very problem with my Ford Taurus.  Having to take it in just a few days after purchase was quite a let down... until I was told the noise was nothing but a loose lug.  Phew!  Since this has no connection whatsoever with the EV system, you know antagonists will attack Toyota's reputation.  The fact that the fix will be replacement of a few parts, it won't leave the opportunity for deception.  By conveying a simply summary for the recall, that will hopefully help prevent such nonsense.  We'll see.  Here's what I posted:  Hub washers were added and hub surface was changed.  Also, alloy in the bolt itself was altered to increase coefficient of friction.

10-06-2022 300 Miles.  Necessity of range has been dissolving.  For years, 200 miles was the tipping point with more considered a luxury.  Upon reaching it, the goal post was moved as a means of reinforcing the message of transition... fulfilling a want, not a need.  That's when things started to get ugly.  Conflict within is becoming apparent now.  The introduction of lower capacity battery-packs as an option from automakers conflicts with messaging from enthusiasts.  Smaller means lighter, enabling better efficiency to compensate a little for the range reduction.  More importantly, smaller means more cells to spread to more vehicles while also resulting in a lower price... addressing need.  Some disagree though: "I don't think it's "enthusiasts" that expect 300 miles of range.  Not when the competition offers it at similar prices."  I strongly oppose such a sentiment clearly in conflict with history and what's really required to help us embrace plugging in.  This is how I replied to that that nonsense:

Don't conflate range with price.  There are other advantages to keeping range shortly, as the following vehicles offering multiple battery sizes address.

   63 kWh = Ariya
   62 kWh = ID.4
   58 kWh = Ioniq 5
   58 kWh = EV6
   53 kWh = Ioniq 6

Think about it.  Regardless of price, choice to offer range far from 300 miles tells us about what the automakers see as priorities for some customers.  Close to 200 miles is close to 200 miles, regardless of price.

 

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