August 12, 2024 - August 17, 2024
Last Updated: Mon. 11/04/2024
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| 8-17-2024 |
Tortoise & Hare. The article about Toyota's big battery investment in North Carolina and setup for production in Kentucky of their upcoming 3-row BEV was republished today. It was from 2 months ago. I commented back then and this is what a well-known antagonist responded to it with this morning: "Riiggghhhht, while old man Toyoda is gimping towards the "finish line" on "three legs", Kia, Hyundai and a cadre of other BEV manufacturers in China are eating Toyota's lunch, dilatory slow walking will only effectively allow others to eat Toyota's breakfast and dinner also. I got your metaphor, I got your metaphor right here. LOL" That type of all-too-familiar attitude sums up the situation well. He's pounding his chest with the vastly superior attitude while working hard to dismiss evidence showing losses. At this point, the tortoise is catching up. That wasn't ever supposed to happen. It confirms their outlook was from the perspective of the hare... assuming the race had an obvious winner. Now, there are those first hints of trouble. Remember this history? I witnessed it firsthand with Volt. Anywho, this is how I responded to his nonsense: Choosing to turn a blind-eye toward the bigger picture is a common problem among the keyboard warriors here. Reality is, Toyota's choice to phaseout ICE in favor of making hybrids standard has proven extremely successful. Those models are more competitive & profitable. It's like printing money... which is exactly what they need for investing in new United States production. |
| 8-17-2024 |
Playing Both Sides. I wondered if this would ever get pointed out: "A cynical person might believe that Musk is simply playing both sides of the street." The outcome is predictable. Tesla's struggle will lead to disenchantment among owners and sales will becoming increasingly more difficult. What made that startup automaker special has faded and audience has changed. For that matter, market need has changed too. It's an ugly situation few want to address. I'm more than happy to though, so I did: No need to call that cynical. It's obvious Musk is in trouble. He didn't care that Tesla was being positioned for Innovator's Dilemma. This is a textbook situation. Cybertruck is the pinnacle of taking the business in the wrong direction, choosing to focus heavily on an obvious niche at the cost of options for the masses. We could all see Tesla failing to address upcoming competition and struggling to define its purpose. |
| 8-17-2024 |
Still Clueless. One of the "vastly superior" troublemakers tried stirring trouble again, long after his beloved Volt was discontinued. GM did exactly what the bankruptcy recovery team had expressed concerned about... too little, too slowly. The technology in Volt was squandered, rather than being spread throughout the fleet. He had no patience and made no effort to see what really makes a difference. Remember, this continues to be a tortoise & hare situation. Narratives of resistance don't actually have an audience beyond enthusiasts, no matter how much someone like this tries to convince you otherwise. He posted this: "Hah, after over decade, Toyota continues to mumble about EVs. What a joke. Meanwhile the rest of are enjoying the EV life. I guess they will have to be dragged kicking & screaming, just like 20 years in regards to PHEVs, and now BEVs." Being the first post on an article republished, with comments from the original publishing, I couldn't resist replying with: 2 months later, that narrative is really falling apart. Tesla's struggle to compete with BYD and fallout from Cybertruck really make that point. NACS progress is much, much slower than anticipated too. Meanwhile, we see Ford throttling back on their BEV production. And of course, new rollouts from GM certainly couldn't be described as enjoyable. From Kia though, EV9 is doing well. But then again, that is exactly the category Toyota is working to join... funded by strong returns from their ICE to hybrid phaseout. In short, time to take off the rose-colored glasses. It's getting real, as this article highlights. |
| 8-16-2024 |
Terminology Failure. Regardless of whatever rhetoric is spread, there's the reality of audience. Online participants are not ordinary consumers. There is some overlap though. Newbies help reveal shortcomings of messaging. In this case, it was a total failure of what "hybrid" actually means: "I can't stomach the idea of a Tesla because of Elon. I have read decent things about the Hyundai hybrids but seems like it can be hard to find charging stations..." The post went on to address range & fast-charging concerns. Neither is hybrid related, those are full electric issues. It reminded me of a friend who discovered her vehicle was flex-fuel capable. All those years of living in Minnesota, yet she had no idea what E85 was until then. From her perspective, there was new opportunity now available. I was somewhat baffled, having dealt with FFV (Flex Fuel Vehicles) since the mid 90's... already 15 years in my past. None of that ever caught here attention until then. That is likely what "hybrid" now means for some. There's nothing wrong with that. It's how products become mainstream. You cannot expect people to be well informed. It's easy for information like this to go unnoticed. That's reality. It is why "Know your audience" has become such a big deal. |
| 8-15-2024 |
So-Call Journalism. It was a strange article about Toyota considering an all-hybrid product-line. What? I have been talking about Toyota's plan to phaseout ICE models in favor on hybrid for an entire decade. Remember when RAV4 hybrid was revealed? That was devastating news for Volt enthusiasts. It confirmed a long-term investment from an automaker with a design capable of offering a variety of plug-in models. The small, slow, weak reputation they attempted to create a narrative upon only worked by pretending Camry wasn't available as a hybrid... larger, faster, more powerful. That was rather effective. Ignoring RAV4 would be far more difficult and they knew it. All these years later, that narrative persists. Some try to convey the "Uncertainty" part of spreading FUD... something I want no part of. I don't want to offend or get banded though. So, I carefully considered how to address what read from an offense role. Here's what I posted: How old is that hybrid article? Camry has already become 100% hybrid; yet, there was no mention of that extremely popular vehicle no longer offering an ICE model. In Europe, the hybrid model of Prius was dropped in favor of being PHEV only. |
| 8-14-2024 |
Evade. I finally got something for feedback. It was just more venting, disenchantment explained without any effort to help: "I'm not an engineer. I'm just sick of waiting for this slug to charge. I get that Toyota is going for longevity but it should not take almost an hour to charge 45 kwh. This car is a pos. I want out of the lease and I'll never consider another EV after this. Between broken charging stations and long charge times I've had it." How can improvement be delivered when their is no expectation set for what would be acceptable? I tried asking one more time: So... you don't want to set an expectation? Think about what the next-gen battery chemistries are targeting. Some will indeed be faster. Some will offer a lot more range. Some will focus on low cost. |
| 8-14-2024 |
Asking Why? I know it is futile. Posts where someone is clearly just looking for a venue to vent are pointless to try to get feedback from. I attempt anyway. After two failures, I made the request one more time: Why is it so hard to get disenchanted owners to answer simple questions? As an engineer, I can't take on a project where "too slow" is the complaint. An actual requirement is necessary. (Think about cost & hardware.) Set an expectation. As a user, how much electricity are you wanting within a specified amount of time? |
| 8-14-2024 |
Recognizing Influence. You don't need to see the long post to recognize it was an assessment of PHEV ownership from the perspective of a BEV owner who has never had any real-world experience with a PHEV. It's a common problem among early-adopters. Since they are well informed about the technology, their comfort with such new engineering accomplishments blinds them from understanding what ordinary consumers see. They have no idea how powerful of an inhibitor the unknown can be. You typical showroom shopper will not be willing to accept much, if any, risk. That's why the approach of just "use the included adapter" is so appealing. Most really don't have any idea what that actually entails, but they know there isn't anything they need to change at home to make it work. You just plug in and charging will happen... like a phone. Having to deal with an electrician and uncertain costs is a major ask. Not having to is the beauty of appeal for PHEV. It just somehow works. That type of success is how sales growth is achieved, not advertising campaigns. That "P" in front of "HEV" is a really big deal. This is what I had to contribute to the on-going discussion: That's a good example of looking at the situation from outside... lots of generalizations & assumptions. Actual ownership (not the company vehicle nonsense used for past reports) tells a different story. When shopping for a hybrid and presented with the option of a plug, simplicity of being able to use the 120-volt outlet already in your garage is a compelling draw. Resulting from that ownership is the desire to upgrade to 240-volt. The intimidation-free path to BEV upsets purists but is a powerful means of reaching markets otherwise resistant. What ends up becoming an upgrade from PHEV to BEV influences friends & neighbors, something no amount of government or online effort could. |
| 8-13-2024 |
Plug, Plug, Plug. I provided more background, pointing out the effort to raise awareness of the plug-in models of hybrid to follow. He simply didn't care. His view was: "The point of the self-charging ads was to confuse the hell out of consumers." Embracing the idea of identifying vehicles based on if they had a plug or not is too much to accept. BEV are supposedly a technology to deliver improvement in every regard. The cold, hard reality that some actually guzzle electricity is an industry outcome many keyboard warriors work hard to avoid acknowledgement of. In other words, switching over to a cleaner energy isn't enough. That's why there is so much resistance to entry-level BEV models. Having a small, cheap, slow plug-in vehicle is a repulsive idea to them. Know your audience. That's all some people want... just basic transportation. Needless to say, it's a losing battle. Some are desperately trying to hold on to the early-adopter stage... becoming their own status quo problem. How ironic. Anywho, I replied to that nonsense with: What was the outcome learned about the market from that limited ad campaign from many years ago? It was confirmation that distinction of whether or not it had a PLUG was enough, that noise from purists didn't matter. Their plan to phaseout ICE in favor of HEV would mean all that was necessary for consumer appeal would be the distinction of having a PLUG. Now all these years later, where some ICE models are no phased out, we see great opportunity to several models offering a PLUG. While enthusiasts are arguing over semantics, Toyota is basically printing money with their market positioning to milk the transition to a PLUG. |
| 8-13-2024 |
Plug History. The breakdown of hybrid into ASSIST and FULL didn't go over well. He clearly didn't want anything do Toyota's attempt to break the status quo: "Uh, you're the one using the labels It's either an EV or it's not. I think we both agree that Toyota using those HEV badges is a bit of greenwashing on their part." This is most definitely a know-your-audience situation. No amount of detail makes any difference. But he willfully dismisses the obvious as well. If it has a plug, the difference is undeniable. Even the most uninformed of consumers will understand that plugging in a vehicle will allow it to take advantage of a battery to power an electric-motor. Whether or not it also has a gas-engine makes no difference to them. That's how back in the days of Volt the plug mantra came about. I was all too happy to provide a reminder of that too: I'm not the one forgetting outcome of that history... NO PLUG, NO SALE. Whatever "EV" means is nothing but a distraction, as is the standard industry label of HEV. Don't lose track of purpose. We want people to PLUG in their vehicle. What it is called doesn't matter. Using electricity from an external source does. |
| 8-13-2024 |
Hybrid Types. So much and so little has changed over
the decades: "The first-generation Honda Insight was not a HEV by your
definition because its electric motor could not propel the car on its own.
It meets your definition of a mild hybrid vehicle in which its electric
motor assists its ICE and recaptures energy when decelerating."
What's most important though is the role hybrids continue to play in the
changing of status quo. I responded to that with: Grouping all hybrids into a single category is a common problem for those only looking at the bigger picture, especially long afterward. Back then, both Honda hybrids were referred to as the ASSIST type. There was a single electric motor that provided assist for propulsion. The other type of hybrid was known as the FULL type, what Toyota & Ford used. They had 2 motors that in combination could both generate & consume gas at the same time. The advantage of this was a gas-engine is most efficient when under load. That meant a net savings from sending some of the energy through the conversion path would end up a net gain... hence higher MPG. Depending upon need, that resulting electricity would be sent to the wheels, to the battery, or to both all at the same time. Since that FULL type had a larger battery and surplus electricity was collected while the engine operated (in addition to braking), that system would also shut its engine off. That allowed the first-generation Prius to drive about a mile in EV mode. Nowadays, with the addition of a plug and a clutch, EV mode has been greatly enhanced to deliver more power and more miles. The design became a PHEV without having to alter the engine or motor configuration. |
| 8-12-2024 |
Electric vs. Electrified. Here we go again. Attacks on Toyota come from every source with something to lose. In this case, there's a group advocating for EV purity who fear use of the standard industry label for hybrids is inappropriate... HEV... Hybrid Electric Vehicle. They don't want any use of an electric-motor for propulsion to be taken into account. If it has a gas-engine, it is evil. Ugh. Those types of absolutes do nothing to change the status quo. We need to inform. Use of "HEV" is an unambiguous means of identification. Of course, there are others. I pointed out my favorite: Labels don't make a difference. History has overwhelmingly confirmed it is a waste of time dwelling on detail to define categories. Know your audience. Ordinary consumers won't be able to keep track of acronyms. Heck, most don't even know the difference between kW and kWh. What matters is whether the vehicle has a PLUG and if it gets PLUGGED in. |
| 8-12-2024 |
More Affordable. An article with this title is making the rounds: "Volkswagen ID.4 Is More Affordable Than A Toyota Camry". Knowing that's a conquest perspective, which is basically a what-about to evade the actual problem, I took advantage of the situation. We really want to focus on what happens on the showroom floor. VW needs to change what their own customers purchase. That means looking at sales of their own vehicles. But if they want to play the distraction game, I can too: It only matters if VW significantly increases volume. 37,789 were purchased here last year. Camry was at its final production last year. Despite that long-in-tooth status, there were 290,649 purchases. Since then, Camry has discontinued its ICE models, becoming hybrid only. VW offering a good lease deal on a model with an EV range that no one in the group finds acceptable raises the question of what we should actually expect. Remember "halo" effect history? |
| 8-12-2024 |
Politics, answer. As expected, there was no answer in the reply. Exactly like we witness with the presidential race, direct confrontation results in a deflection. He didn't want to provide any example. He felt it was totally appropriate make an assertion but no obligation to explain. That type of weak argument is exactly the kind of nonsense I dealt with from Volt enthusiasts for years. They would attack Prius with empty claims. When pressed for detail, their response was always an effort to evade. That's a dead giveaway they don't have a good argument. Claims without substance are what creates rhetoric to feed narratives. Without accountability, you end up with hope turning into hype. So even though my friend may have had some type of good intention, he only made the situation worse by not providing an answer. |