Personal Log  #1289

August 1, 2024  -  August 12, 2024

Last Updated:  Mon. 11/04/2024

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8-12-2024

Politics, question.  I have a friend blinded by the past.  He keeps posting reflections, not seeing the irony.  Like with most hybrid arguments, it comes down to be vague.  I pushed for detail asking: "Which policies?  Remember, we don't want a politician unwilling to compromise."  Supposedly the problem was change.  Vice-President Harris was claimed to change position whenever it suited her.  That sounds a lot like the lobbying argument.  It was a talking-point without any context... kind of like how uses of a gas-engine are bad.  Stating things in terms of an absolute is a red-flag problem.  This is how I dealt with that situation in this case:  What position?  Keep in mind that detail is important.  For example, Trump stated repeatedly that he would end EV mandates immediately... even though there are not any.  It's easy to flip-flop on incorrect assumptions.  What did he actually think was required?  Of course, now with Elon's endorsement he changed his long-time stance against EVs anyway.  What will that mean with his own recent complaint about DC fast-charging funding?  The point is, there's usually more to a position than just the sound-bites we keep hearing.

8-11-2024

Comparison Narratives.  Desperation we saw long ago with Jetta TDI is now coming back in the form of Tesla misleading.  Back then, diesel was supposedly the better choice.  This time around, it is electricity.  This was the entire post: "Fun Fact: You can drive from New York to LA in a Tesla Model Y for just around $225!"  There wasn't any detail provided.  Nothing whatsoever to back a claim is a red flag.  Even better though is when Facebook sorts the over 1,200 posts to make sure you see comments from a friend.  In this case, it was: "Cheaper in a standard Prius."  Doing the math, that is indeed true.  The trip is listed as 2,790 miles when mapped out by Google.  The standard Prius delivers a rating of 56 MPG highway.  Figuring real-world of 50 MPG, that equates to needing 55.8 gallons of gas.  At the current national average of $3.50 per gallon, that works out to $195.  That narrative pushing the idea of it being really cheap to drive across the country in a Tesla easily fell apart.  Hope though is people won't actually fact check.  The map included with the fun fact showed the Tesla having to stop 18 times along the way to recharge.  It's easy to see a hybrid wouldn't need to stop anywhere near as often.  Know you audience.  Thankfully, no everyone is just going to accept a narrative.  Many of the comments confirmed that.

8-10-2024 Advertising.  Portraying legacy automakers being totally against EVs is an obvious effort to mislead.  I see advertisements from them for BEV on a very regular basis.  But since this post was about Tesla, I let that go.  This was too good to resist: "Tesla needs to come to the realization that they're no longer selling to the early adopters and enthusiasts.  So, despite the fact that advertising is ultimately paid for by the consumer, it's time to advertise - especially in the face of ICE-car-maker's bad-mouthing EVs."  This is what I had to say about that:

It has become remarkably simple to dismiss this question: "Why didn't you consider buying a Tesla?"  Easy to accept talking-points are used.  That should be a big red flag.  Audience has indeed changed.

Remember in the past how that used to work with hybrids?  It doesn't anymore.  100% of new Camry are hybrids now.  So what if that is the slow path to plug-in adoption?  It worked.  Mission accomplished for hybrid technology.

This topic of dealers continued plug-in resistance is evidence that the process will not go as quickly as the early-adopter and enthusiasts led us to believe.  Their rose-colored glasses focused on the technology; engineering blinded them to the reality of business.

Know your audience.  Automakers sell vehicles to dealers, not consumers.  The unique setup where Tesla does not have dealers means something must be done to fill in that gap.  They must bite the bullet and consider an appeal method to attract consumers like dealers do.  Advertising is an option.

8-08-2024 Dealer Struggle.  This was a question that seemed reasonable, but didn't so any evidence of critical thinking: "If dealers aren't great at EV education, what's to say they won't struggle with the same on plug-in hybrids, for example?"  First thing that comes to mind is wanting to know what isn't great.  Being really good is usually enough.  They really don't need to be experts.  And in the case of plug-in hybrids, it is even easier.  I replied with:

Since nothing but a standard household 120-volt outlet is needed to fully charge the battery overnight, that sounds a lot like FUD.  You get enough EV miles to cover daily driving for most without having to learn anything new.

BEV enthusiasts can sometimes be their own worst enemy.  In this case, focusing so heavily on DC fast-charging has stirred a lot concern for an ability most owners rarely use, only necessary for long road trips.  Ordinary road trips, like weekend travel to the cabin, is no big deal.

PHEV don't require any education.  No planning is necessary.  No concern about range.  They are literally just plug & play... making them an easy sell.

This is where Toyota's effort to position hybrids as standard will really pay off.  Phasing out ICE in favor of hybrid makes the up-sell to a PHEV relatively easy. Camry is now 100% hybrid, no more ICE models.  The same is expected for RAV4.  Crown & Sienna already are hybrid only.  In Europe, Prius hybrid has been phased out to now be PHEV only.  CH-R hybrid could potentially do the same.

In short, some won't struggle.

8-08-2024

Didn't Make Sense.  When someone arguing against you starts claiming their mom was lied to by a salesperson, you know the argument is done.  What he had been saying about the PHEV shopping experience up to that point didn't make sense.  It was difficult to follow.  We had no idea even what brand of vehicle.  Now it was just a matter of finding out what the lie was.  What did the salesperson at the dealership claim.  Of course, upon pushing we didn't get any detail... only this: "What they gave her takes a week to charge 50 miles.  She's furious."  I was somewhat bewildered by that post.  It was absurd to say that.  How could it possibly take that long.  Reality is, he was the one lying.  Everyone now knew it too.  Rather than face facts, he chose to be dishonest instead.  Making up a story like that was pretty desperate.  I replied to it with:  What kind of nonsense is that?  The basic level-1 charger operates at 12 amps, exactly like a vacuum cleaner.  From an ordinary 120-volt household outlet, that's 1.44 kWh per hour.  50 miles of EV from the typical 3.5 mi/kWh vehicle means needing about 14.4 kWh of electricity.  That's only 10 hours of charging.

8-07-2024 Video: ODBII data.  If you ever wanted to know more about what's happening in your Toyota bZ4X while you drive, watch this video.  There is a lot of data available by connecting to the vehicle's ODB-II port.  Using an aftermarket app (like Car Scanner for Android), you can see detail from a wide variety of sensors in real-time.  It can be very informative...  Toyota bZ4X - ODBII data
8-07-2024 Not Ready, teaching moment.  Well aware he had no idea what I was talking about... know your audience... I had to reply again to the same post.  Evidence to the design priority of Prius being reduction of smog-related emissions is easy to find.  Toyota's consumption of gas for the sake of cleansing was obvious with the first-generation.  When you put it into park, the gas-engine would often start.  That really upset & perplexed some people.  We ended up having to explain it was a "housekeeping" task, preparing the vehicle for a cold-start later.  That final burst of heat & pressure was an emission purge.  If that wasn't possible, you'd get a surge of engine RPM during initial driving when the engine was still warming up next time you start.  A more elegant solution came with the second-generation design.  Hot coolant was pumped into a thermal storage-tank to be used to warm the engine the next time it was started.  That approach worked fine, but third-generation design brought warm-up optimization.  Heat was generated much faster, eliminating the need.  Anywho, I jumped on the teaching moment opportunity with: 

The direct relate to gas burned is CARBON emissions... CO2

SMOG is the other type of emission... primarily NOx (Nitrogen Oxides). It also includes CO (Carbon Monoxide) and PM (Particulate Matter).  This is the kind of pollution that cause breathing problems, like asthma.

CO2 doesn't cause any harm to the human body. In fact, that is our exhaust as part of our breathing process.  It is obviously detrimental to the weather system though, hence climate change.

8-06-2024

Not Ready, emissions.  Not understanding emission differences, or the simple reality that there are multiple types, is a fundamental problem.  In fact, that is a big part of why hybrids struggled to take hold.  Our market clearly wasn't ready to address air-quality issues... which was the primary design focus for Prius.  Rollout focused on making the air we breath less dangerous to our bodies.  The benefit of reducing climate-change impact was secondary.  Still to this day, people don't recognize that.  Some will even argue that you have no idea what you are talking about if you bring up the topic.  Today's reply was a perfect example of that: "The amount of SMOG out the tail pipe is directly related to the amount of gas burned.  The emissions come from the fuel combustion.  The more you burn the more you pollute."  That came from a PHEV advocate, someone who is supposedly well informed.  It was a great example of know your audience.  I fired back at that with:  Nope.  The SMOG type is based upon cleansing equipment and heat generated for that cleansing, which means a cleaner system come potentially use more gas.

8-05-2024

Not Ready, dead weight.  My previous post was a provoke to see what kind of counter-argument would come about.  It ended up being: "By not plugging a PHEV, you're carrying the dead weight of the battery, making the engine consume more fuel."  Knowing the extensive history of that dead-weight spin, I was intrigued where it would go this time... since it was way off topic, a blatant attempt to divert attention away from the good point just made about convenience.  If people were actually concerned about weight, market obsession with giant vehicles wouldn't be thriving still.  In fact, we are seeing a selection of 3-row BEV rolling out.  Efficiency is clearly not a priority... hence the "not ready" status.  This path was easy to predict.  I asked an EV9 owner what see was averaging for efficiency this summer.  It was 3.2 mi/kWh.  Remember how supposedly horrible bZ4X was even in warm weather, despite reports of delivering over 4 mi/kWh with no effort?  In other words, I'm challenging their narrative.  In this case, it was with a warning:  Careful not to feed the anti-EV crowd.  By not driving long road trips with a BEV, you're carrying the dead weight of the battery.  And as DCFC become more common, that "dead weight" argument will get more attention.

8-05-2024

Not Ready, provoke.  The state of our market is becoming brutally apparent.  You know that when an enthusiast website which had an obvious BEV bias in the past publishes an article comparing plug-in hybrids to regular hybrids.  In the past, discussions drawing attention to just plug-in hybrids resulted in backlash.  Enthusiasts found that category totally inappropriate, a step in the wrong direction.  They wanted to consider them part of the past, a chapter in BEV history.  Finding out that part of the story isn't complete yet is a bitter pill to swallow.  Status isn't obvious though.  When you look at the website, there doesn't appear to be much of a change.  But when you discover that venue has split, the story changes.  Presence on Facebook suddenly grew rather significantly with the change of commenting software.  The online interface doesn't have the appeal to antagonists anymore.  But rather than being a deterrent, it causes lurkers to seek a new venue.  So now, there are 2 distinct audiences.  I find that quite telling; though, I expect more of the same to reappear in that new location.  Anywho, this is what I contributed to the discussion, seeing the stir the topic had started:  PHEV convenience comes from households not ready to upgrade to level-2 yet, being able to take advantage of starting with a full battery every morning from just level-1 charging overnight.

8-03-2024

Nope.  Gotta love wild claims like this, where you know the person making the comment is clearly exaggerating: "Fortunately, a BEV is ~3 times more efficient than a comparable ICE vehicle, and the additional weight of a large battery pack results in increased regeneration, so the weight penalty isn't nearly as severe as with an ICE vehicle including a HEV or PHEV."  The best thing to do in this case is to push for data.  That may end up revealing a source.  Sometimes, you discover propaganda spread.  Attacking someone spreading it rarely makes sense.  But every know and then you discover they are using it to legitimize an effort to mislead.  In this case, I suspect it is just a purist that doesn't have a clue how PHEV are actually designed:  Show us the data.  Since the better PHEV deliver +40 miles of EV per charge, enough to cover daily driving for many, actual end results are not clear cut.  Remember, a highly optimized PHEV like Prius Prime has undergone significant weight reduction.  Pistons, rods and camshaft are designed to only assist, resulting in a smaller & lighter ICE.  Also, starter & gears have been eliminated, reducing weight even more.

8-03-2024

Sunday Drive.  Reading a review that didn't come from an enthusiast media source or some paid reviewer is quite refreshing.  Today, it was a simple article from an actual journalist.  Within the "Lifestyle" category of the paper is a "Home And Family" section.  The write took a Sunday drive.  It was a drive through the mountains requiring several stops to recharge.  He started the journey with a 93% charge leaving the hotel.  The first segment was 140 miles and involved 2 steep climbs (in Colorado).  That was no big deal.  The stop to charge was 28 minutes to get to 81% and the cost was just $0.20 per kW.  It was a complete non-event... none of the drama we got from the past from the obsessed.  Next came 147 miles before charging would be necessary.  It's unfortunate more locations to plug in aren't available.  This just happened to be one of those new Starbucks though, which was nice to read about someone finding those useful.  For the convenience of getting a coffee and a comfortable place to recharge without any obligation, hope is more will add DC fast-charging.  That stop was 49 minutes to get to 89% for $22.90.  (Note that their DCFC have a top speed of 62.5 kW... which makes a lot of sense for a business approach to encourage patrons to stay for awhile.)  Anywho, the next charge was to 90% in 45 minutes for $22.23.  He made it to the destination with 69 miles to spare.  What I found most interesting was the overall time, distance or cost wasn't provided.  It was just an account of charging experiences with very nice things to say about how the vehicle performed.  Looking it up, I see the drive was 491 miles.  That would fall into the accountability of a "road trip" enthusiasts tend to hype.  That's a full day of driving without being overwhelming.  And as the article concluded: "The 2024 Toyota bZ4X has turned out to be a great first for Toyota in the EV market.  With its blend of futuristic design, good range and advanced technology, the bZ4X is poised to attract a new and differing driver to the Toyota.  Be it a longtime EV enthusiast or a newcomer to the electric vehicle world, the bZ4X is certainly worth a closer look."

8-01-2024 Real Life Numbers.  I waited to see if my closure or any other fact was going to be challenged.  Well aware that PHEV sales are growing, that chance to continue to inform those researching a purchase would not go wasted.  I know the power of owner endorsements, how they can squash any type of rhetoric online or even advertising.  That's why being able to follow up later without having to deal with those who feel threatened by PHEV was great was an opportunity too good to pass up.  I took his own post and turned it right back on him: "Since 3.8 is less than 3.9, how is 3.8 "much better" than 3.9?  You said "much better" not me.  Since it's less, not more, it can't be "much better".   Math?  Much better would be 5, in real life EPA numbers."  Having misquoted me and making every effort to evade the newest generation of plug-in Prius, this was a joy to provide:

After waiting 4 days for a reply, I'm chiming in to point out the blatant effort to mislead.  127 MPGe (3.8 mi/kWh) is only an EPA rating... not real life numbers.  As this topic link states, this discussion is about user data.  I posted: "My niece purchased my 2017 Prius PHEV when I got the bZ4X." to clearly point out my ownership observations.

That previous generation plug-in Prius routinely delivered over 30 miles of EV range in real life numbers.  Knowing EV usable capacity is 6 kWh, that means it was getting 5.   In other words, I was well aware that the efforts from a BEV supporter were attempts to avoid real life numbers.

We all know that Tesla has been overstating their rated values.  That's why user data discussions are so important.  Too bad if you don't like those real life numbers.  Those are how we will get people to try a vehicle with a plug rather than an ICE or hybrid.

Owners sharing their experiences is a far more compelling means of drawing interest than focusing entirely on EPA ratings.  It's all about reaching that audience hesitant to consider the purchase of a vehicle with a plug.  We need to promote the benefits of doing so.

 

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