Personal Log  #1266

February 16, 2024  -  February 19, 2024

Last Updated:  Sun. 4/21/2024

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2-19-2024 Profit Motivation.  It is a perspective some will never see beyond: "If plug-in hybrids were profitable, Toyota would flood the market with them.  Basically, they are halo cars."  Much of that comes from simply being impatient.  Waiting an entire generation for profit is unacceptable.  They want high-volume right away, period.  There's no excuse in their mind.  The very idea of refining the technology & production first is unheard of.  Why limit yourself for years?  That's why there is a belief that the only motivation for rolling out anything with the potential to compete is low volume is because it was never intended to compete.  Either they label it as "compliance" or "halo".  Posting reasons for taking time is in their mind only something an apologist would do.  Ugh.  Here's what I had to say in response to that nonsense today:

There is not a single path to success.  In fact, consequences from rushing are quite real.  For this situation, risk of Osborne Effect should not be taken lightly.  That's why Toyota is taking the time to set the stage.

That process is rolling out the next-gen Prius Prime, rolling out the next-gen RAV4 Prime, introducing CH-R PHEV (for the market in Europe), and introducing Crown PHEV.  Thought is we'll also get Corolla Cross as PHEV eventually. It seems inevitable to get a Sienna PHEV too.

Once all that is established and understood by salesperson & consumer, then ramp-up can take place. In the meantime, phaseout of ICE is helping to ensure sustainable profit regardless of how the market shifts.

Keep in mind while that is happening, Toyota is building production in the United States to reduce cost more and enable tax-credits.

2-19-2024

Dismissal Attempts.  Fear of the juggernaut is growing.  In the past, dismissal came about in the form of stating Toyota's position as having inferior tech... scrambling to come up with something competitive... the "behind" narrative.  Now, we're starting to see this instead: "Toyota has one EV, and they barely produce any of them.  Toyota is basically irrelevant in the EV space."  Lack of choice & inventory is a definitely switch.  It is also antagonists unwittingly acknowledging Toyota having the potential to compete.  The downplay of "irrelevant" makes that obvious, since it brings up the "Who?" question.  Subjective assessment is never a good idea in an emerging market.  Know your audience.  Of course, in this case that doesn't matter.  The dismissal attempt comes from pretending Toyota is only now just starting to deliver any type of EV.  Those fanboys of another automaker absolutely refuse to acknowledge Toyota has been offering EV drive for over 7 years now.  I like to point that out, making sure to jab where it hurts the most (with facts!), like this:  Since 2016, Toyota has delivered EV drive.  Electric-Only propulsion from Prius Prime has worked so well, it's easy to understand efforts to dismiss.  If you actually cared about replacing ICE, that success would have been acknowledged.  All those miles without gas... entire commutes in both directions for many... have earned reliability acknowledgement.  Instead, the reply was praise for Tesla. How is that even the slightest bit constructive?

2-19-2024 Binary Mindset.  The polarized market is quite frustrating.  Either you are in favor of EVs or you are not.  The idea of embracing anything that accelerates death of traditional vehicles is unacceptable.  They are their own worst enemy.  If it has an ICE, it is deemed as evil.  I'm quite thankful for PHEV owners sounding off about how much the daily routine of plugging in stirs interest in their next purchase being a BEV.  They pushback too: "EVers getting all upset that hybrids are making a comeback.  They were dead they told us.  Trying to get all preachy on those who aren't interested in an EV..."  It is basically what that vastly superior nonsense mutated into.  I enjoy reflecting back some of their own rhetoric:

Their favorite argument against PHEV was calling out "dead weight" from carrying an ICE that was rarely ever needed.  Now in the ultimate act of hypocrisy, they are arguing the necessity of carrying enough battery capacity to deliver at least 300 miles of range.  Why? Growth of DCFC locations and adoption of NACS makes it unnecessary to tradeoff size, weight, cost and efficiency for the sake of rarely used range.

I bought my first PHEV in 2012, replaced it with a next-gen PHEV in 2017, then replaced that with a BEV in 2023 delivering 225 miles of range.  That makes me highly qualified to callout those "dead weight" enthusiasts pushing of FUD.

Reality is, those BEV purists neglected what was truly important... investment in infrastructure.  It was many valuable years wasted.  Now, they see PHEV as a means of helping with the establishment of level-2 access for those with landlords & associations overseeing their parking circumstances, but don't want to give up their purity.  So, they push for more range instead.

We all know that having access to level-2 overnight is priceless.  A draw of 32 amps from 240 volts will deliver roughly an average of 7.2 kW for 8 hours.  The resulting 57 kWh of electricity at an efficiency of 3.5 mi/kWh equates to 200 miles of range, great BEV replenish overnight.

The catch is when you do the math for taking advantage of nothing but a standard household outlet, delivering 12 amps at 120 volts.  That 1.4 kW for 8 hours gives you 11 kWh of electricity.  At 3.5 mi/kWh efficiency, you get 38.5 miles of range... very close to what PHEV target, since that is the daily driving range for most people.

Long story short, those "EVers getting all upset" have themselves to blame.

2-18-2024

EPA Rollback.  We are getting vibes of the Biden administration giving in a little to sales requirements, relieving some of upfront pressure to help with the transition.  There are some who are freaking out about this, a few who... as expected... seek out a scapegoat.  This is what I encountered upon reading through comments posted for an article written about the possible EPA rollback: "You Toyota apologists are something else.  Do you consider the lame bz4x and RZ450e serious efforts?  I don't."  Knowing who posted it was a BEV purist, that reply was easy to predict.  Pushback was inevitable.  History overwhelmingly shows even the best of efforts will stumble along the way.  When it is a paradigm-shift on such a magnitude, adjustments along the way should be expected.  Compromise is not a bad thing.  In fact, some type of tradeoff will come about simply due to an unforeseen bottleneck or barrier.  You find a way to overcome it without losing sight of the goal.  So what if it takes a little longer?  Keeping everyone working to achieve the same outcome is key.  That isn't the way enthusiasts see it.  I joined the discussion by pointing out why:  Enthusiasts are impatient.  They also force a top-down perspective on evaluation of progress.  That makes no sense with a bottom-up approach.  Fortunately, not wanting to wait is their problem.  In other words, if you are actually concerned about the EPA rollout possibility, stop thinking short-term.

2-18-2024

Impatience & Priorities.  Focus on quick results and emphasis speed & power is such a big problem still.  Enthusiasts are impatient and have difficulty recognizing the difference between want & need.  A reply to that "...EVs are dead?" post resulted in a very long rant.  It started with: "I come from a Toyota family.  My grandfather started driving them back in the 70's..."  And concluded with: "Like Volkswagen, I can't wish Toyota anything good.  If I wish them anything at all, it is rather a quick bankruptcy."  I was quite annoyed, firing back with:  Following that narrative and refusing to acknowledge the investment to deliver bZ4X improvements with the 2024 model is your problem.  Who else is going to go along with the "only cars without an exhaust count" mindset when they see several models of PHEV delivering electric-only drives?  So what if that EV experience comes from a vehicle with a backup power source... especially coming from an automaker rolling out a new smaller BEV this year and a new larger BEV next year.  Claims of sabotage are now desperate efforts from those who fear Toyota is preparing to take on the nonsense enthusiasts are shoveling now with their niche priorities.

2-18-2024

Grid Concerns.  Posts like this come up far too frequently, most of the time with nothing constructive in return: "I don't care what your buddies are telling you.  We have had several instances over the last few years of too many people running their AC and overloading the grid.  We all lost power.  Some for a few hours, some for a few days.  So yes, it does happen."  Legitimate concerns like that about integrity of the grid are rarely looked into.  No explanation of what actually failed is ever shared.  Think about it.  How well is an old electricity co-op with backup diesel-generators prepared for significant sudden increases in demand?  If it is just a matter of determining when to start them, then everything works fine afterward, is there really a problem with the grid?  That would actually be a problem with execution.  It is exactly why those same co-ops are now replacing old meters with smart-meters.  Being able to manage load better is a big part of the solution... which means the grid itself is actually just fine.  If at the same time they are adding more responsive means of providing electricity when there is a spike, even better.  Knowing that sodium-ion batteries work exceptionally well for exactly that purpose, it's easy to see some grid concerns are overblown.  But until they become common, I just point out what's happening right now to address the situation:  Take a look at what Tesla has been doing with a bulk of their 4680 cells.  They aren't being used for vehicles; instead, the are being deployed for use as grid storage... to deal with that very problem.

2-18-2024

Efforts To Dismiss.  I'm watching the downplay transform to outright denial.  It's awesome to watch troublemakers squirm.  Today, it was: "There are no "efforts to dismiss" the Prius because it's not a relevant vehicle.  Sure, you see some on the road because they've been selling them for a long time, but that doesn't change the fact they don't play a significant role in the current market.  What you see as an effort to dismiss is no one caring."  I find it quite fulfilling to reply to such nonsense with:  That "no dismiss" claim included a dismiss.  I bring up the EV drive Toyota delivered with their plug-in model of Prius and the response is to pretend the reference was about the regular hybrid.  Again, my exact words were: "Electric-Only propulsion from Prius Prime has worked so well, it's easy to understand efforts to dismiss."  That effort to downplay their success has been called out.  Fear of Toyota being a waking juggernaut is becoming difficult to deny.  Toyota quietly refined their EV drive, dismissed by BEV purists... who clearly didn't understand what that meant for BEV use later.  Those PHEV shook out real-world exposures, leaving nothing left except ridicule for DC fast-charging... which has also now been addressed.  The 2024 model enhancement that delivered greatly improved battery-heating for faster DC charging clearly scares those who see Toyota as upcoming competition.  I find that quite amusing to watch enthusiasts scramble as their narrative falls apart.  Go ahead, keep up the "not relevant" claims.  Watch how ineffective they are as more and more Toyota shoppers discover growing their PHEV and BEV choices... Prius Prime... RAV4 Prime... Crown PHEV... C-HR PHEV... bZ4X... bZ3X (this year in Europe)... bZ5X (next year in the US).

2-18-2024

Desperately Holding.  It is interesting when you encounter someone with outdated information and there's an opportunity to point out they are passing along claims from those desperately holding onto the past.  It started with lobbying expense data from 2021.  I pointed out that all lobbying is not bad, that having resources available to fight for better legislation is really important.  Antagonists created a stigma to wanting others to just assume donated money was always used for evil.  Ugh.  That doesn't surprise me such assumptions happen.  That's an effective means of misleading.  Anywho, I went on to question the claim of hybrid superiority.  Every time I callout someone for that assertion, I get nothing in return.  I don't know if they figured out they had been assuming it or if they just didn't want to argue.  When someone makes up their mind, they absolutely refuse to even acknowledge the possibility of having made a mistake.  So, I posted:  As for "continuing to sell their hybrid technology as the better alternative" is just patently false.  Since IRA was passed, we have seen an extensive effort for Toyota to advertise a diversity of choices.  There has been a barrage of advertisements showing promoting their electrified line up, which always includes a BEV.  We see those hoping to undermine desperately holding onto the past, attempting to portray Toyota as anti-EV despite growing evidence to the contrary.  Don't contribute to that nonsense.

2-17-2024

Asking Owners.  From my reply to that video came this: "I'm also in Minnesota and am considering this model.  I'm concerned about cold weather performance of the battery.  I often make a 150 mile highway trip but fear the low range plus range loss would mean this car (and its Subaru twin) couldn't even make it 150 miles one-way.  What's your experience?"  Seeing such questions is quite an affirmation of progress.  Rhetoric from reviews is subsiding now that real-world data from actual owners is emerging.  It's a problem we have to deal with every time there's a new rollout, especially first-gen.  Absence of anything beyond brief reviews fuels the fire... especially from those who feel they have been wronged by Toyota.  They expect Toyota to lead in a way they define leadership.  That's how the search for real-world data becomes a quest for honest feedback.  It's not easy to find.  I'm delighted to have information to share now, like this:  Minnesota is starting to see the nice DC charger growth (Holiday/CircleK most recently), which removes concern for my trips with the bZ4X AWD up north (southern metro to Brainerd).  2.8 mi/kWh has been my winter average.  When it gets above freezing, I'll see efficiency climb to low 3's.  In the summer, road trips have been 3.6 mi/kWh.  Daily commute gets well into the 4's.  All that said, you have 65 kWh of usable capacity... which makes a 150-mile trip realistic.

2-17-2024

Infrared Heater.  I hadn't ever been able to get confirmation of that special feature we had here not being available elsewhere.  Well sure enough, it was confirmed today.  Someone finally posted a video from Oslo, Norway where the eCarExpo is taking place.  That's where the new BEV labeled the "Urban SUV" was being shown.  It's only a concept model there, but we got confirmation of that rolling out later this year too.  Anywho, that venue is there discovery of the benefits from radiant warming.  I was delighted to be able to share real-world info on how that works:  2023 Limited in United States already has the infrared-heater... and it is AWESOME !!!  I live in Minnesota and use it in my bZ4X all the time.  It works so well, I only leave it on high for only a few minutes before turning it down.  It's a very efficient means of warming, so much so I can exploit efficiency of the heat-pump by setting its temperature lower.  Most of the time during the winter, I have the heat-pump set to 65°F (18°C) because of that. In the warm season at night or when it's raining, I sometimes rely on the infrared-heating and the seat-heater and don't even bother to turn on the heat-pump.

2-17-2024

Promoting Diversity.  I am continuously running into advertisements from Toyota promoting their variety of electrified choices.  That makes nonsense like this a disappointing confirmation of the propaganda being effective: "Every 2nd article I see about Toyota is about them saying EVs are over and they're already developing the engines of the future instead.  So which one is it?  New EVs or EVs are dead?"  People don't check source.   There are some working hard to undermine Toyota.  That's where the EVs are dead crap keeps coming from.  I see that click-bait on YouTube all the time.  Every now and then, I'll take the bait to see if messaging has changed.  It hasn't.  It's the same old nonsense... but growing in frequency.  Encountering it more often is concerning.  That contributes to the pushback I see online, where people make statements just like the quote above.  They think that stance portrayed is messaging from Toyota.  Not looking to see who published the video is a big problem.  Unfortunately, there's not much I can actually do to counter that.  Pointing out the problem itself is my focus when it comes up:  The rhetoric from others is getting out of hand.  We have seen efforts to undermine by twisting Toyota's words and using them out of context before.   But the frequency of the misleading articles & videos has increased significantly.  Perhaps they are worried the juggernaut has awoken.

2-16-2024

Bring Back Volt.  Wow!  The internet has exploded over the possibility of GM reversing their decision never to offer a PHEV after having discontinued Volt.  Having abandoned investment in the technology puts GM way behind with their own goals of sustainable sales for a profit, overlooking how much more difficult competing has now become since then.  Like I said back then, opportunity was being squandered.  That automaker advantage was allowed to fade away.  Ironically, exactly what Volt enthusiasts accused Toyota of is what GM did... rested on their laurels.  Ugh.  Oh well, all I can do now is attempt to point out that history without sounded like a troll.  Again, ugh.  We've been through this before... except now, it's worse.  This is how I addressed that mess this time:  Volt technology was expensive & inefficient.  GM felt the resources it would take to evolve it to an Equinox platform were too much.  To get an economy-of-scale cost benefit, spreading the technology was essential.  Making it compete with RAV4 hybrid though... which even back then looked really promising as a PHEV... put them far beyond anything they felt would provide a sizeable return.  Now all these years later, that potential is being re-evaluated without really considering how it will compete on a Chevy showroom floor.  Is GM really thinking only a small hatchback or will an Equinox PHEV go up against an Equinox EV?

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