Personal Log  #1262

January 28, 2024  -  February 1, 2024

Last Updated:  Sun. 4/21/2024

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2-01-2024

New ICE.  As you could imagine, there are some who are going nuts over articles with this title: "Toyota Is Developing New Combustion Engines".  It never ceases to amaze me how people see the competition as static.  That's the way Volt enthusiasts always looked down upon Prius.  It is why they absolutely refused to acknowledge the existence of Camry or the potential of RAV4 becoming a hybrid, then plug-in hybrid.  Such a narrow view of the world is how the "EV Market" references came about.   They simply didn't care what else was out there.  All they focused on was their own progress.  It was a fatal mistake.  Fortunately, not everyone dismisses what they don't like.  I was pleased to see this: "There is no mention why they need to design a new internal combustion engine.  Do they expect to significantly increase their current engine's efficiency?"  Phew!  A question came about from critical thinking.  That is a delightfully refreshing post to reply to, which I did:  It's basic economics.  As the market for ICE shrinks, remaining shoppers will seek out the very best choice.  Since Toyota sales in some regions with poor infrastructure, it doesn't make sense to abandon that opportunity.

1-31-2024 Pre-Conditioning Confusion.  It continues.  No surprise.  Enthusiasts were quite vague in the past.  They don't consider audience.  They are unaware of how much they know.  Worse though, they are unaware of what they don't know.  It blew my mind how many supposed experts were making videos about fast-charging but didn't use a ODB-II reader.  The result was wild guessing.  Even one that did an extensive video on the effects of when you "yo-yo" the battery didn't actually have a gauge to measure.  He was just guessing... no data.  Heck, most didn't even have references.  They are oblivious to what temperature levels.  In short, that's solid confirmation early-adopters seeking opportunity.  Serious supporters wouldn't be that sloppy.  You want to convey a trusted message of endorsement, you share detail.  Anywho, I'm making an effort to stir discussion on the topic:

The ambiguous use of "pre-conditioning" could become an understanding problem for newbies.

WHILE DRIVING = Most references are with regard to preparation for DC fast-charging.  Using it requires either a manual invoke (click a "START" button) or to program in a DCFC destination range on the mapping system.

WHILE PLUGGED = The other reference is simply battery warming in preparation for improved efficiency before you begin driving.  To use that, you must be plugged in and have programmed in a departure time.

1-31-2024 It's Back!  Fallout from GM having missed so many goals already with Ultium, it was only a matter of time before pressure to try something else emerged.  The idea of bring back PHEV is getting a lot of attention.  In the article published today, this was the quote that stuck out for me: "After all, GM once had a sizable following with its Chevrolet Volt plug-in hybrid."  Think about how many hundreds of times I asked Volt enthusiasts that same old annoying question.  It was to the point of madness.  They absolutely refused to acknowledge the problem.  Now all these years later, it's back.  I could resist asking again.  But this time instead of posting the "Who is the market for Volt?" question, I asked:

The struggle was to break out beyond being a niche. Volt was a great conquest vehicle.  Early-Adopters jumped on the opportunity and were not disappointed.  It performed well and was an awesome bargain.  Appeal to ordinary consumers simply never happened though.  They wanted something resembling what GM had on their dealer lots... something like an Equinox.  After all, a plug-in Saturn Vue (small SUV leveraging Two-Mode, the predecessor to Volt) had been planned for 2009.

GM knew what their target customer wanted.  So, it made sense that GM would eventually spread Volt technology across the fleet.  Trouble was, that niche appeal was extremely difficult to let go.  Loss of power & range to make an AWD Equinox with a plug competitive was too much of a compromise.  The idea was abandoned.

Having witnessed GM go through so many marketing campaigns... from "stop gap" to "leap frog" to "vastly superior" to "range anxiety" ...it is quite intriguing to see an a dismissed path being reconsidered.  It all comes down to who.  To achieve another sizeable following, what traits will be needed from that technology?

1-30-2024 More Capable Battery-Heater.  It was nice being able to present this information today:

The existing battery-heater is small.  It works fine for ensuring operation & charging, but obviously isn't beefy enough to rapidly provide heat.  That's where pre-conditioning could be useful.  Starting a heater prior to arrival is a practice other BEV use anyway, to bump speed from "fast" to "supercharge".

Knowing heat is an enemy to longevity, Toyota avoided it with their approach.  That choice wasn't well received.  Importance of fast-charging has been acknowledged as a high priority.  So, the 2024 gets a more capable battery-heater.  Hope for 2023 is two-fold... that we get a software update to enable pre-conditioning... and the possible option of upgrading the battery-heater.  Thoughts for all bZ4X is that Toyota might raise their temperature threshold.

Meanwhile for context, keep these temperatures in mind:

50°F (10°C) = minimum, for "non-cold" operation

77°F (25°C) = warm, the "goldilocks" temperature

95°F (35°C) = heated (Toyota's current threshold)

122°F (50°C) = supercharge level, for maximum speed

Note that when very high temperatures are reached, energy must be consumed to provide battery cooling.  This may occur even after unplugging, which will reduce available range.
1-30-2024

Outdated Messaging.  I'm not sure what the expectation is anymore.  Their words are losing impact.  Yet, same old messages are repeated anyway.  It's like our former president.  Without anything else available, he keeps trying the same thing that worked in the past.  After awhile, people simply tune out.  Are they aware of it losing effectiveness?  For example:  "Toyota is so far behind...  It's like they took a moth balled BEV from 2006, and released it as modern.  I loved my Prius, and would have happily purchased a BEV from Toyota, but they put all their research into Hydrogen instead of battery chemistry and now here they are.  Holding a turd of an EV, and hugely lagging behind."  What is that assessment from long ago based upon?  People see how far Prius has come since 2006.  By the time ordinary consumers start shopping for their first BEV, the new platform will be available.  What "behind" will there be?  Needless to say, their messaging is already showing signs of being outdated.  I pointed out what's to come:  With regard to EV and battery investment, that narrative you've been told will be interesting to watch crumble.  Toyota worked heavily on their electric-only propulsion system through their hybrids.  The plug-in Prius has been delivering trouble-free EV miles since 2016.  So what if enthusiasts dismissed it for having a gas-engine, the EV operation (with heat-pump) has worked so well it is being used in 3 other plug-in hybrids and 3 other BEV, with 2 more on the way.  What I can point out to you as an innovation that puts Toyota a little ahead is their bi-polar battery packaging.  Through their hybrids, they engineered a means of reducing size, weight, material and internal resistance eliminating some internal components.  That worked so well with NiMH cells, they will be introducing with Lithium cells in the next-gen bZ4X.  That is expected to reduce cost by about 40%.

1-30-2024 Dealers Want.  Gotta like this article title: "GM Dealers Want Hybrids For Customers Who Aren't Ready For EVs".  Within the article itself, it reiterated that sentiment: "Dealers are begging GM to introduce hybrid models as a middle ground between gas models and the company's planned EV models."  That makes sense.  The instant success formula didn't.  In fact, it seemed absurd without anything to leverage.  Bolt is gone and made for a terrible comparison to a SUV.  How exactly would an Equinox EV be presented next to a regular Equinox on the salesfloor in the absence of any other alternative established?  That's a lot for a shopper to consider... hence having transitioned to hybrids.  Remember, that was the original plan for GM.  I spelled out the situation now:

It's nice to see the topic of transition finally getting attention.  There was a big red-flag last year when legacy automakers were making "all in" promises but stated no means of how that would be achieved.  Absence of a plan should have been a major concern.  Sadly, it wasn't.  Instead, Toyota got attacked for supposedly still dragging its feet.  In reality, Toyota was showing leadership by working a bottom-up approach instead.  The top-down is far more exciting, but much more risky.

Hearing GM dealers request hybrid offerings is an interesting topic.  Enthusiasts of Two-Mode have completely vanished, despite their "leap-frog" taunting of Toyota for years.  At least when it comes to Volt, most of those "vastly superior" jeers have become just a memory which shouldn't come back to haunt.  Toyota knew what it was doing all along.  They knew the paradigm-shift to BEV would be difficult. Intimidated consumers are a challenge, something very risky for their dealers... hence an effort to phaseout ICE models.  Here's their status with regard to 2023 sales in the US:

100% = Sienna (66,547 hybrid)
100% = Venza (29,907 hybrid)
100% = Prius (38,052 total >> 30,495 hybrid & 7,557 plug-in hybrid)
100% = Crown (19,063 hybrid)
99.9% = Sequoia (22,182 total >> 22,151 hybrid)
43.0% = RAV4 (434,943 total >> 161,125 hybrid & 26,073 plug-in hybrid)
29.3% = Highlander (169,543 total >> 49,654 hybrid)
25.0% = Grand Highlander (48,036 total >> 11,986 hybrid)
24.2% = Tundra (125,185 total >> 30,303 hybrid)
21.7% = Corolla Cross (71,110 total >> 15,437 hybrid)
20.6% = Corolla (232,370 total >> 47,990 hybrid)
12.2% = Camry (290,649 total >> 35,445 hybrid)

Camry is becoming 100% hybrid this year.  Crown & CH-R will be offered as PHEV models this year, helping stir more interest toward plugging in.  In the meantime, bZ4X is getting a mid-cycle update and their upcoming smaller BEV will be getting a "close to production" concept reveal in 2 weeks.  bZ5X is expected next year.

1-29-2024

Chasing Prices.  Short-Sightedness and narrow-mindedness of enthusiasts is always a source of enlightenment.  I'm always amazing how hard some people work to live within their own limited world.  They don't consider the scope of their influence.  When they purchase an EV, their ICE vehicle doesn't just vanish or get junked or even recycled.  It's life doesn't end.  The entity which purchased it will sell that vehicle as used.  Service to provide transport will continue, often for many years to come.  The most enticing EVs become, the greater number of used ICE enter the used market.  That's a problem... a big problem.  Trade-In values will drop... making the EV less financially appealing. Chasing prices like that never gets addressed.  I try to stir attention to the topic:  Like ignoring the reality of how early-adopter sales distort demand, how enthusiasts pretend that low-hanging-fruit with subsidies is representative of the mainstream market...  In other words, right or wrong, it's both a changing & moving target.  What comes next is far more complex.   The simplistic portrayal of expectations should be a red flag.  For example, what comes next is always told from the perspective of EV advancement.  What about how the automotive market gets flooded by used ICE as a result?  Dropping ICE prices I'd never part of the "price parity" discussion.  Dealers discounting new inventory will seriously mess up the "savings" equation.

1-28-2024 Subjective Value.  I continued on with:

For historical comparison on resale, consider the first year of Prius Prime.  Back then, Toyota's attention was on aged Prius owners looking to upgrade who's kids have grown up.  There was emerging opportunity to upscale the brand.  It's why the Prime model got an entirely different look and a number of upgrades not available to Prius.  Knowing space wasn't a priority, the middle-seat in back was exchanged with a nice armrest & storage and some cargo space was exchanged with extra battery capacity.

That approach didn't work out. Toyota hadn't expected Uber & Lyft, a new source of employment depending upon vehicle usage.  Absence of a 5th seat became a huge controversy, supposedly a major shortcoming inflicting serious harm to the brand.  So, Toyota redesigned the back to support a 5th passenger (underseat space was consumed by the AC converter).  It was a mid-cycle update based upon real-world feedback.

What did that mean for resale from owners like myself, who ended up selling their Prius Prime years later?  Nothing.  The absence of a 5th seat was meaningless.  What was important was long-term reliability.  It sold it without any trouble or a big loss from the supposed shortcoming.

In other words, should having an undersized battery-heater be a big concern?  I would say no. So much else about the ownership experience is really nice.  I don't dwell on the need to be extra diligent when using a DC fast-charger.  After all, I'm not one of those who pushes beyond 80% anyway.  I don't have an issue offering charger use to someone else upon hitting that point... quite unlike many who insist upon charging all the way to 100%.

When buying new technology, there will always be something better years later anyway.  You should know subjective value will play a big role in the ownership experience.

1-28-2024 Sometimes, Too Far.  I followed up my own post on reliability focus with:

For perspective, this has happened before.  Toyota doesn't share priorities of other legacy automakers... but sometimes, they lean too far in the other direction.

In the past, it was delivering an underpowered PHEV.  That made sense.  Back then, it was all about efficiency.  With our BEV, it was all about longevity... which makes sense, seeing current concern about reliability.  For that PHEV, they found a means of significantly reducing power without much of an efficiency tradeoff.  For our BEV, it sounds like the same thing with the battery-heater upgrade and improved coolant circulation. Toyota's continuous improvement approach baffles some, others come to expect it.

What does that mean for 2023 owners?  It means we have a system that can be trusted in the used market.  True, it will be uncompetitively slow to DC charge even with a software update to exploit its original hardware.  However, consumers looking to purchase then will likely be less concerned about DC charging due to the heightened awareness of new station builds, especially with NACS adapter support and the next round of NEVI funding.

We will get a Toyota-approved NACS adapter for our 2023 and something with regard to improving the DC charging experience.  That expresses to used bZ4X shoppers that Toyota stands behind their vehicles... a very important trait when considering long-term reliability.

1-28-2024

Reliability Focus.  This reply to that topic was a pleasure to add commentary to: "I never expected a great return on resale. The bottom line to me is this, people that want an EV are going to buy an EV.  That's it.  People dead set against it are going to remain that way."  She recognizes audience.  Sweet!  I shared my thoughts:  It is interesting how some go down the price rabbit-hole.  Toyota does not.  They have a long-history of setting prices that don't put their dealers in jeopardy.  Inventory would be limited too, no surprise ramp-ups.  That meant an uncompetitive MSRP to keep transactions profitable.  If national inventory began to grow beyond expectations, reductions would be temporary and would come from corporate.  They have no desire to get into the top-seller game like Tesla.  They follow boring & reliable accounting principles.  That's where reliability from Toyota comes into play.  Not following the crowd with the pursuit of power & speed, makes a difference with regard to resale.  They know focus is elsewhere, like longevity.

1-28-2024

Not Good News?  He decided it was not, for us as bZ4X owners.  It was a financial article basing resale value on reliability.  His comment was: "This news is not good for our cars' resale values.  Fortunately, our EVs are not listed in the top three worst category.  Chrysler, Audi, and Tesla made the worst three list."  I was happy to chime in on that:  None of the EV were ever going to be in a position of strong return.  With subsidies in play, that's just a given.  The fact that infrastructure was lagging so much still... AC... DC... NACS... meant (and still does) a market dominated by early-adopters.  That's a cutthroat situation well defined by history.  Enthusiasts evade the topic of "work the bugs out" stage that mainstream consumers always expect.  You get a mix of pros & cons that may or may not align with long-term priorities, which directly impacts resale value.  In short, initial rollout purchases are a gamble.

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