Growth to 30%.  It's quite troubling when enthusiasts base their growth assessment upon initial sales.  That mistake is how the "Who is the market for Volt?" question came about, which eventually led to "Know your audience."  Enthusiasts clearly don't.  They repeat the same mistake over and over and over again.  They think the experiences they have observed in the early stage of rollout will apply to everyone else later.  That doesn't even make sense.  How would a homeowner with knowledge & excitement, with a passion to seek opportunity relate to someone who doesn't find vehicle ownership rewarding... especially if that someone doesn't have a convenient means of recharging?  They have that mindset anyway.  That's how this comes about: "BEV was under 15% last year IIRC.  Percentage growth y/y has already peaked.  Doubling in two years is a fantasy going forward.  I'd bet 4 to 5 years for the next doubling (with 2023 as the base)."  It took more than twice as long for that initial 15% even with heavy subsidies.  That 2027 to 2028 timeframe isn't realistic.  Heck, think about how many of those initial sales came from repeat business, where the enthusiast upgraded to a newer EV.  Why didn't they keep the older one?  Some of them simply couldn't, since their home only had capacity for a single level-2 charger.  Others leased with the expectation of replacement in just a few years.  That skews representation growth, since sales of new vehicles didn't result in expansion to a wider audience.  Attracting those who otherwise wouldn't consider purchase of a new EV is key.  Enthusiasts refuse to acknowledge audience & growth.  Ugh.  Anywho, I kept response to this nonsense brief too:  The first 15% contained a lot of low-hanging fruit.  Growth to 30% will continue at a steady pace, but it won't be anywhere near as fast as those wearing rose-colored glasses hope.  Excluding audience from the equation, there's the very real problem of installs for level-2 and DCFC proceeding at a painfully slow rate.  They are involved & expensive.  So even with the desire, there are still hurdles to overcome.

New Narratives.  I wonder if this attempt to mislead will take: "Toyota has been pretty anti PHEVs as well even though that could and should have been their bigsellers by now."  That repeating theme of impatience and narrow scope would suggest otherwise.  I kept my reply to this newest nonsense brief:  That's what happens when you aren't actually anti-EV.  Toyota wants to spread PHEV tech across a variety of vehicles while advancing both it and BEV tech at the same time.  There's quite a bit of overlap. Positioning their fleet, rather than just pushing a model or two, is the smarter way to play the long game.  After all, the way others have been rolling the dice on limited choice hasn't delivered encouraging growth potential.

That total of 13,341 total was profoundly less than GM has hyped, setting a 2024 expectation for 300,000 to 400,000 sales.  With the only Blazers on the road waiting for software updates and sales stopped, it doesn't set a positive outlook for the launch of Equinox EV.  Wisdom of refining software in limited-volume models prior to mainstream high-volume rollout was evident with Lyric.  Unfortunately, knowing audience means recognition of that being a very select customer... quite unlike what Toyota did with bZ4X/Solterra.  In fact, you can't get much more of a difference.  Feedback for Toyota is diverse.  Clearly, it wasn't for GM.  Those Cadillac owners were pretty much dead silent.  It was intriguing not hearing anything at all from them.  That made me wonder if GM had nailed it or completely missed the mark.  Rollout of Hummer might reveal a clue.  It did.  Problems were revealed, but enthusiasts expected them to be resolved prior to Blazer EV rollout.  They weren't.  In fact, quite a number more were discovered shortly after that rollout.  Ooops!  Needless to say, we're seeing a repeat of history with GM's haste and Toyota's patience.  2024 will be quite interesting.

Room-Mode Impact.  Does using Room-Mode have a impact on battery-heater operation?  I capture a graph illustrating the answer to that question rather well.  Elaborate setup for video has established a number of good observation & recording habits for me.  That will payoff in the future.  Today, it was 5°F degrees out and I had a cold soaked battery.  Plugging into DC, the fast-charger immediately fired up the battery-heater.  Upon turning on room-mode, electricity draw for heating the battery was clearly reduced.  When shutting off room-mode, full power for the battery-heater resumed.  Here's what I saw, note the obvious dip... bZ4X Photos Album 16

Teaching Moment, undermining.  It didn't take long before someone exploited the opportunity to attack EVs.  Unfortunately, shortly after that troll posted a comment, someone took the bait.  Rather than using that as a teaching moment, it turned into an argument.  He was promoting diesel.  That was the very history I was attempting to avoid.  He had made up his mind, concluding his trolling with: "Nope.  Not now or ever.  They can walk."  Imagine dealing with the shortcomings of diesel forever.  Think about how much we still have to forward to from EV technology.  There are many improvements to both the propulsion system itself as well as battery design & chemistry being developed.  Diesel has nothing else left to offer.  This is as good as it gets.  Ironically, diesel is challenged in the cold.  I was very tempted myself to reply to that poster obviously working to undermine the discussion about battery heating.  I resisted.

Teaching Moment, detail.  My immediate follow-up to the post raising awareness was this detail to help stir some feedback, as well as take advantage of the teaching moment:

Owning a bZ4X has heightened awareness in battery-heater discussions for me.  Yesterday, it was only 5°F (-15°C).  I went out of my way to not plug in overnight, so that driving would be with a cold soaked battery.  It worked just fine.  Performance was not inhibited in any way, for driving... no pre-conditioning necessary.

DC fast-charging is an entirely different beast.  When I plugged in, the battery-heater took 55 minutes to reach the level where you can start to see some decent charging speed.  That's a comfortable 77°F (25°C).  Being able to run the heater prior to arrival (pre-condition) at the DC location would likely have halved that time.  The upgrade for the 2024 model, which gets a much more powerful battery-heater, should reduce heating time significantly.

To achieve really fast charging, even hotter is needed.  A target of 95°F (35°C) is a reasonable, but we some EVs heat their battery quite a bit more... to 122°F (50°C).  That of course has the drawback of incurring greater expense, since it requires more electricity for heating and possibly cooling down afterward.  It is also a waste if you don't need to charge that quickly or if the DC station itself doesn't support a super-fast speed.

The point is, we have a variety of temperatures at play at most owners never have any insight as to what they actually are.  Knowing that both hardware & software upgrades will further confuse ordinary consumers, we really need to be diligent about how we convey such information.  We shouldn't say "pre-condition" with the belief that everyone will be thinking the same thing.

Teaching Moment, terminology.  The topic of battery heating is quite popular.  People have become aware that cold equates to some type of negative impact.   It's a definite step forward.  With all the controversy a year ago, virtually no data whatsoever meant problem would inevitably take longer to address.  If you don't have detail, neither identification what's at issue nor how to properly make changes will be easy to agree upon.  Discussions remain in the abstract.  Needless to say, I'm not letting that history repeat.  So, I started that discussion by posting the following as the first comment in a newly shared article about winter preparedness:  The ambiguous use of "pre-condition" is contributing to misunderstandings about EVs, stirring unnecessary concern.  It refers to both the heating of the battery for driving and the heating of the battery for DC fast-charging.  With such a significant difference in temperature, we should be making an effort to be clear about need.  The vague tips posted contribute to assumptions. Notice the absence of any unit of measure... kilowatts, degrees, miles, minutes, etc.

For the legacy automakers, it will continue to be a struggle.  They will continue to face resistance to change from dealers and their own loyal customers.  Tesla has to deal with saturation problems, figuring out how to appeal to more than just enthusiasts.

We are watching that mess roll out now... more over promise, under deliver.  That's why seeking out distractions, like portraying Toyota as an antithesis just like in the past, is such a popular topic for enthusiasts.  They see the challenges of reaching mainstream consumers but don't want to acknowledge them.  It is history repeating, yet again.  The same thing happened with Two-Mode.

Like Charge-Mode.  I ended up posting a follow-up to my own reply:  I look at pre-conditioning for bZ4X like "charge mode" in their plug-in hybrids.  Toyota didn't want to offer the ability, since it could so easily be misused... resulting in an efficiency loss by not understanding when it is best to be used.  The same will happen with heating the battery when that really isn't needed.  Using an ODB-II reader, it's quite obvious how temperatures well above freezing provide much faster DC charging.  It takes awhile for the current battery-heater to heat to 25°C (77°F) for a decent charge speed. A target of 35°C (95°F) is what most would consider acceptable.  I saw that battery-temperature during the summer and DC charging was indeed really fast.  Some EVs shoot for even higher, like 50°C (122°F).  Not only does that likely sacrifice some longevity, it also requires energy to cool the battery afterward.  This is why some design decisions are so difficult.  There are tradeoffs.

Design Decisions.  The video I published today stirred this reply: "Interesting design decision - the bZ4x doesn't seem to heat the battery pack actively at all.  In my e-tron..."  He continued on to point out how his Audi would consume electricity to heat the pack but result in "30~45kWh/100km (2mi/kWh to 1.4mi/kWh)" for efficiency as a result.  That meant being able to fast-charge at a moments notice at a very high speed.  He recognized how Toyota didn't see that as a priority.  I didn't either, but definitely see how there needs to be enablement.  Just like not getting Charge-Mode right away, Toyota did deliver that ability later.  I replied back with:  Toyota leveraged its experience with plug-in hybrids to be able to squeeze out great efficiency in the cold.  There simply wasn't any driving benefit to heating the pack much above freezing... hence the design decision.  Consuming electricity for DC fast-charging was reserved for when you actually plug in there on location.  With just a basic battery-heater and not enabling the ability to pre-condition (use battery-power for heating the pack prior to arrival), it has proven too slow.  So, the 2024 model will include an upgraded battery-heater to prepare for DC fast-charging quicker. Hope is that a software update for the 2023 will enable greater use of its existing battery-heater, with an understanding of the efficiency tradeoff.

VIDEO:  Cold Winter Run... for donuts!   It was the last day of a long work week.  We *needed* donuts.  So, I set up the filming equipment in my cold bZ4X.  I had hoped for this opportunity, leaving it parked in the garage overnight, not plugged in... so the battery would not be heated.  That could serve as a representation of being parked during the day within a ramp at work during a winter day, protected from the extremes but having to face them on the drive home.  As you can see watching the video, even with the temperature far below freezing.  That was no big deal.  It was just an ordinary drive like you'd expect during the warm season.  Key to it is recognition of what Toyota delivered in terms of efficiency.  Their choice to not heat the battery beyond what was absolutely necessary resulted in a design with energy consumption a top priority.  Operation within minimums is difficult.  Most automakers simply don't bother.  After all, the rating system won't relate those results in range estimates.  Not taking extremes into account is unfortunate.  Fortunate for Toyota customers, the benefit even without recognition.  Using less electricity overall means lower operating costs and less time charging.  Watch the video for yourself.  Note that detail, which thinking of donuts.  I'm really disappointed with myself for not taking a photo of what I got to include in the video.  Oh well.  That's an excuse to film the same drive again this spring.  In the meantime, here's the one for winter...  Toyota bZ4X - Cold Winter Run

For Good Reason.   I climbed up onto the soapbox today:  Ambiguous use of precondition has made discussions a challenge.  The before-you-drive type is heating the battery to above freezing via level-2 plug.  The before-you-charge is in multiple different forms... via battery and via DC plug... along with warming to charge (above freezing) and warming to fast-charge (hot summer day).  Current system software is configured to keep the battery in the "longevity zone" at much as possible.  That is above freezing and below room-temperature.  You blast cabin-heat, the battery will be kept from heating up using software.  Vehicles without such programming will indeed allow driver invoked heating, like yo-yo between accelerator & brakes.  Hope is that Toyota will both empower drivers use the battery-heater by providing a new button, one that does not require tricking the system by programming in a charger destination (like some other EVs).  That would draw electricity from the battery-pack, consequently reducing range... which could be detrimental to owners not aware of the tradeoff.  That's good reason Toyota waits to collect ordinary usage data from non-enthusiasts prior to committing to any particular specification.  In other words, they are attempting to do due-diligence before rolling out to the masses.  In fact, that is why initial rollout is in limited volume.  Toyota did the same thing with the first Prius, which proved a very wise approach.