Personal Log  #1240

October 5, 2023  -  October 11, 2023

Last Updated:  Sun. 4/21/2024

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10-11-2023

Charging At Home.  Absence of detail is unfortunate.  Enthusiasts will often simplify situations to such an extreme, it almost sounds like a fair tale... too good to be true.  Sadly, that is the situation sometimes.  I get quite annoyed.  They become their own worst enemy by not addressing complexities.  They just brush aside challenges as exaggerations.  It they didn't have a problem, why would others?  Most of that pushback comes from being poorly informed.  They really don't give the topic much thought, so circumstances without any clear course of action never occur in their portrayal.  It's all good in their mind.  Ugh.  So what if real-life is complicated?  The outcome is very rewarding if the issue required a lot of effort.  You learn from that and share the wisdom.  Don't ignore the barrier.  Some do though.  I like to point that out:  What we have been told is through the eyes of early-adopters, reporting about the "EV market" rather than what mainstream consumers will actually have to deal with.  They were taking advantage of an niche opportunity.  Good for them, but their messaging is terrible.  It sets unrealistic expectations.  In fact, it doesn't even work for them.  How will they recharge a second vehicle in the household?  That existing 120-volt connection is barely enough to maintain the first vehicle.  Or if they have a 240-volt EVSE, how will they share it?  They end up with the same problem as others, not having a convenient location to routinely plug in.

10-10-2023

Deception Dependency.  Some enthusiasts show they still cannot support BEV as a direct competitor to ICE.  They know the market still looks toward subsidies & grants to help the process along, to build up what they had hoped would already be.  They don't like the reality of how painfully slow change really is.  So, they misrepresent the situation by painting a false picture.  Claims like this are a dead giveaway: "According to the EPA, the average annual gas cost of a 2023 Toyota Corolla is $1,650.  The entry variant's MSRP is $21,900.  Based purely on gas prices and base MSRP..."  How can be so selective be objective?  To show confidence in a technology, you must provide data for others to draw their own conclusion with.  People are gullible, but not when there is that much money involved.  Such an expense will involve research.  Sadly, the research is often rudimentary.  But nonetheless, they study the situation before making a major commitment.  My favorite example is an uniformed customer simply roaming the dealer's showroom floor.  The same thing happens at auto shows.  An ordinary person will stumble across something, they make some type of effort to get their questions answered.  The point is they don't just accept what they are told at face value.  Ok, that's a Corolla.  What else is there?  It's not rocket science, though those depicting the situation differently will rarely bother acknowledging my posts on the topic:  A customer shopping for savings will most definitely take the hybrid model into consideration.  Omitting that is fundamentally flawed.  You can't just cherry-pick data by excluding choices. For that matter, notice how the price of gas is conveniently missing.  The base hybrid model is only $1,400 more and it delivers a significant efficiency improvement: 53/46 MPG (50 combined) verses 32/41 MPG (35 combined).  If you want to have mainstream consumers take BEV seriously, such deception tactics are a terrible means of conveying their value.

10-10-2023

Online Advice.  There is a lot of money to be made from publishing videos on the topic of EVs.  There is no verification of supposed claims.  There is no effort to ensure facts aren't generalizations or outdated.  There is nothing to prevent the spread of fear, uncertainty or doubt.  It's basically just a free-for-all with the prize being profit.  So regardless of purpose, there's a whole lot of misleading going on.  That means even with the best of intention, as sincere as possible, you really need to verify any advice given online.  Far too often, the devil is in the detail.  Today's opportunity to draw attention to that problem was related to charging.  We were told to avoid going to 100%.  That meant even if you were aware of the chemistry not being LFP, which is a battery type you should routinely charge to 100%, the advice was still basically wrong.  Reason for the advice was for longevity.  The older chemistries couldn't handle that stress.  Unfortunately, the older systems using it did not take preventative measures to avoid needing to ever know about any of that.  Fortunately, Toyota handles that situation for you.  Its system does indeed control charging, automatically.  There is no worry because there will never be any stress allowed.  I tried to draw attention on one of the video shorts that clearly didn't bother to highlight such differences:  100% dashboard is not always 100% true for all EVs.  For example, Toyota bZ4X and Subaru Solterra only bring the state-of-charge to 95.3% when recharged to "full".  So even though it says 100%, there is an automatic hidden buffer for longevity.

10-10-2023

Happy Zone.  First frost was this morning.  I have been watching battery-heater activity for weeks, so an overnight cold soak opportunity was something I was really looking forward to.  My theory was that Toyota's software strives to maintain battery-temperature in the happy zone 10°C to 25°C (that's 50°F to 77°F) using a minimum amount of electricity.  Toyota's priority has always been overall efficiency, knowing it requires a performance tradeoff.  My observations continue to support that theory... which is based upon my many years of experiences with Prius Prime.  More to come as temperatures continue to drop, here in Minnesota.

10-09-2023

Dwell Time.  This was a reasonable statement: "Tesla dwell time is short at a Supercharger & your chances of seeing one are correspondingly small.  Think hummingbirds."  I would expect outlook of the situation to be commonly shared among both owners & non-owners.  It isn't necessarily a good thing though.  From a user perspective, never having to wait is great.  But then again, when has a gas-station with a few pumps being used eve been a problem?  For that matter, when has it ever been a concern?  All you want is accessibility & reliability at a decent price.  How many enthusiasts actually consider the impression or return a charging-station makes from being empty pretty much all the time?  What is there to draw you in?  It would be like stopping at a rest-area along the highway all alone.  Think about the psychology of looking desolate.  Think about what it means for the station's host.  Think about what empty does for building more.  To that statement posted, I asked:  Ironically, that isn't a good business model for getting investors.  For NACS growth, others need to use that same connector with their own hardware.  Their support is with an expectation of patronage, customers coming in to purchase something.  A quick stop is counter to that desired outcome.

10-08-2023

New Voices.  It is fantastic when a new voice enters the discussion.  From today's nonsense about sales, we got that in the form of: "All of the other compact CUVs are selling better than the bZ4x/Solterra/Lexus RZ. Nissan Ariya, Hyundai Ioniq 5, KIA EV6, Ford Mach-E, Tesla Model Y, BMW iX, Audi Q4 e-tron, Mercedes EQB, and VW ID4..."  That was great to see.  I'm quite curious what type of reply I will get from posting this in return:  Drawing conclusions based on initial sales data is a common theme among enthusiasts.  A number of times that approach has proven gravely incorrect.  It is why the "Tortoise & Hare" story is routinely sighted as a warning. Enthusiasts tend to dismiss that wisdom, which explains why Toyota tends to ignore their claims.  In this case, there is an attempt to spin bZ4X as a failed niche by dismissing the technology advancement Toyota has demonstrated as making them competitive.  It is their success with bi-polar battery cells. Rollout with NiMH chemistry has exhibited potential for Lithium benefit as well.  Estimates are a 20% gain for range and a 40% reduction for cost, while at the same time enabling faster charging.  It's an upgrade targeted for bZ4X, the vehicle most closely resembling their top-selling RAV4.  Like so many others, it's ok to disregard information provided.  Despite history showing that would be unwise, since Toyota's focus is the long-game, that is the choice available.  There are many who thrive on short-term results.

10-08-2023

Losing.  Fanboy panic in comments about Toyota sales is growing.  Now, there's one individual desperately trying to spin a new narrative: "Toyota is losing thousands of dollars per BZ sold so they have a marketing placeholder that is priced near the Model Y.  Only a handful of rabidly brand loyal customers or completely clueless consumers are purchasing these so Toyota can lose money."  I found that quite telling and was happy to point out what he was losing:  What proof do you have that "Toyota is losing thousands of dollars per BZ sold"?  Knowing that Toyota has decades of experience refining their EV drive component hardware & software, that claim contradicts basic logic.  They have mastered squeezing the most out of the least.  In fact, that is how they were able to make hybrids standard, eliminating several ICE models.  They reused the same components for their plug-in offerings.  True, that makes their current BEV uncompetitive. But no part of that means it is unprofitable.  Toyota's challenge is scaling up.  Put another way, loyal customers can see the enthusiast market losing grip.

10-08-2023

Making It Personal.  He was bewildered why I post "know your audience" so often, turning the discussion personal after having obviously lost: "It's OK if you're a brand guy.  Just admit it." Of course, that was to be expected coming from a die-hard Tesla fanboy who's motto is "more is better".  It's just history repeating with an ironic twist.  The early-adopter mind doesn't see it; they don't want to.  This is why Volt fell apart and Prius stood the test of time.  I keep pointing out the overlook anyway:  Repeated enough times, you'll eventually figure out what "know your audience" means.  Enthusiasts focus on want.  Mainstream consumer focus on need.  Even if more is a good deal, that doesn't mean the person is willing to pay for it. In this case, if the person doesn't need more power or more range, it makes no sense to purchase that.  In other words, Toyota strives for balance... what their customers seek.

10-08-2023

Sales Panic.  Counts were released for the previous quarter here.  Sales were better than expected... to the point of panic for some enthusiasts.  They don't want to see Toyota succeed.  That means they lose their antithesis.  Not having something to direct attention to and blame for their own shortcomings is a problem.  They keep trying though: "Everything is a better deal.  The RWD Model Y starts at $43,990 and comes with 260 miles of range.  More cargo, more everything.  Faster DC charging rate, Tesla SC network, AP, etc.  Only brain dead, brand loyal buyers are going for the BZ4X or Solterra."  The same old reasoning doesn't work as the market changes though.  It gets worse if they try to include detail.  Whatever.  We know that as time progresses, those shallow initial reviews will fade into the background.  Owners sharing their own real-world experiences will take over.  That's what contributes to sales growth.  In the meantime, we have to deal with claims & comparisons that really don't make much sense:  Thinking someone seeking AWD and higher ground-clearance wouldn't be willing to pay an extra $2,230 is brain dead.  As for thinking more is better, know your audience.  I just got back from a 400-mile round trip with my bZ4X.  Stopping at a Tesla Supercharger with MagicDock along the way worked really well.

10-07-2023

Battery Heater.  Temperature dropped below 40°F overnight.  My bZ4X was parked outside charging to full with the level-1 EVSE, simply taking advantage of a regular 120-volt outlet.  It was a great opportunity to observe what the battery-heater does.  I was excited to see what the status would be in the morning.  As expected, there was a small amount of electricity being used to keep the battery-pack comfortable.  That's the same behavior I saw with my Prius Prime.  It was very effective in the dead of winter, here in Minnesota.  It will be interesting to watch it as the temperatures drop.  That makes me wonder when the next software update will be.  Supposedly, that will offer some type of pre-conditioning for the battery much in the same way, but more aggressively.  Currently, there is some level of that already, but it only activates when you connect to a DC fast-charger.  An enhancement would allow greater draw from the battery itself.

10-06-2023

MagicDock Video.  CCS charging has become available using Tesla Superchargers with a built-in adapter called "MagicDock".  I had the opportunity to try it recently too.  It was at the first (of hopefully many) in Minnesota.  I downloaded the Tesla app, created an account, then drove to that location.  Timing was awesome.  I already had a trip planned for driving to northern part of the state anyway.  The route literally took me right by it.  Charging went well.  It turned out to be a very good experience to capture on video.  I look forward to more like that... and there is indeed another new Supercharger location planned, also along my route.  I would expect that one to have MagicDock as well.  Places to DC fast-charge along thought rural highways are perfect for attracting cabin traffic.  We need places to stop for electricity.  The one I just visited is a great place to either direction.  That one being built still would be great for returning home after having driven a bunch while at my destination.  Here's that video...  Toyota bZ4X using Tesla MagicDock

10-05-2023

Wild Numbers.  A new owner asked: "How long does the 2 charger take to charge vs the basic one?"  It resulted in a flurry of wild numbers.  None were explained.  None were accurate.  I was appalled by that.  How could actual owners do such a terrible job of sharing real-world expectations.  They clearly don't pay close attention.  I would venture to guess they never actually measured, that their responses were passing along of what they were told verses their own observations.  What good is experience if it is conveyed so poorly?  What was the person who asked the question to think?  I jumped on right away to hopefully intercept & clarify.  This is how I responded to that mess:  7.2 kW is the maximum rate you could get at home (240 volts * 30 amps).  At an efficiency of 3.5 mi/kWh, that works out to a maximum of 25 miles per hour for level-2 charging.  Also, keep in mind that commercial level-2 will operate at 208 volts, which means a slower maximum of 21 miles per hour.  From the level-1 EVSE you get with the vehicle, it will pull 12 amps from a standard 120-volt household outlet.  That provides a rate of 1.44 kW. At an efficiency of 3.5 mi/kWh, which works out to just under 5 miles per hour.

10-05-2023

All Talk.  It never ends.  No matter how much Toyota delivers, there is always someone trying to portray the automaker as still being anti-EV.  They never actually were, but I don't even try to argue that fact anymore.  Product diversity is not a subject enthusiasts will ever recognize.  They are enthusiastic about niche products; so by their very nature they have limited perspective.  They are short-sighted too.  That means anything with a long-term focus is either dismissed or ignored.  That's how you get comments like this: "I'd like to see Toyota turn it around but it's been all talk and no action."  In fact, that is why I own a bZ4X.  I am well aware of how much Toyota has already invested to deliver it.  There has been lots of action.  Ever since that initial taste of "stealth" all those years ago... back in August 2000, when I first experienced a Prius driving with only electricity... I knew the business ethic of Toyota was one of long-term focus.  I also knew the approach would be subtle, hence the irony coining the name for that mode.  It would inevitably be a journey involving a great deal of time... progress so seemingly slow, it would be denied.  That is why some still don't accept the reality that Prius Prime delivered full EV driving, complete with heat-pump, way back in 2016.  They only see what they want.  They dismiss what they don't want to acknowledge.  Ugh.  I deal with that nonsense by drawing attention to those facts:  As for all talk and no action, that claim is an act of denial.  Toyota has 2 well received plug-in hybrids with full EV drive (including heat-pump) and 2 converted ICE to BEV models and 2 pure BEV models already.  Refining design/production is their focus prior to ramp, so high-volume can be profitable without risk... to avoid the struggle "all in" automakers currently face.

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