Personal Log  #1235

August 27, 2023  -  September 5, 2023

Last Updated:  Sun. 4/21/2024

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9-05-2023

Day Late, Dollar Short.  It is easy to see antagonists beginning to panic.  Their hatred for Toyota's approach is quite clear.  They want purity, one solution for all.  They disregard facts contradicting their claims.  They absolutely refuse to acknowledge how long transition takes.  It's a recipe for disaster.  We've see this type of behavior contributing to disenchantment on a monumental scale.  GM's hype for Volt was the ultimate example.  Reality disconnected from what had originally stirred hope.  Enthusiasts focused on an ideal.  It was realistic, at first.  But then it got out of hand.  They didn't want to address challenges.  It was the "if we build it, people will buy it" attitude.  Watching heavy dependence on tax-credits and sales remaining the conquest type was a dead giveaway of bigger problems to come.  We're seeing that same type of blindness now with BEV offerings.  Their approach exhibits the same reckless behavior.  It's rather disturbing.  They don't see it.  Ugh.  Oh well, all you can do is point out what they refuse to see... especially when portraying a "behind" narrative without supplying any type of transition plan.  Claiming Toyota is a day late and a dollar short doesn't achieve anything.  Heck, it is barely even a talking-point.  It's just a feel-good chant to distract.  It's their loss.  It's not like they were not informed:  PHEV compliment BEV, promoting level-2 upgrades at home and making most travel EV without effort or concern.  For a multi-car household, it is a no-brainer.  For those who have to deal with an association or landlord, it enables purchase right away without risk.  For dealerships, they address several problems related to paradigm shift. Then there's the cold, hard reality of DCFC shortcomings.

9-03-2023 Hearsay.  Geez!  I don't even need to include the post for you to imagine what was claimed.  At this point, there's nothing new, nothing surprising, nothing worth quoting.  It would almost be a waste of time if it wasn't for the backward slide already starting.  Many enthusiasts heard a vague claim, then accepted it at face value.  Everything will just magically work out... on time and perfect in every way.  When plans go astray... like the 4680 cell from Tesla... enthusiasts just pretend it never existed.  All that hype, all that taunting, for what?  It was to be vehicle-integration at its finest.  Instead, Tesla sales are focusing on a different chemistry in different packaging from a third-party provider much later than expected.  That's ok.  Toyota isn't allowed to adapt like that though.  Toyota must be held to their standard, even though many of those design traits they deem most important are of little to no interest to Toyota shoppers.  Ugh.  With all that in mind, I keep my replies to them brief:  That's just rhetoric from those frustrated with Toyota's pace & diversity.  Those rushing to market with a purity pledge need an antithesis to draw attention away from their own production & profit challenges.  It basically comes down to where everyone will be in 2025 when the next round of NEVI funding is negotiated.
9-03-2023

Curious.  It's nice seeing a post from just a random person curious to learn more.  It's the type of individual those trying to win battles online, conquering those who don't agree or contradict, would never understand.  Enthusiasts see a world where decisions are simple & obvious.  Here's the basics I shared to hopefully satisfy that curiosity:  My longest single measure was a 340-mile round-trip (highway with a mix of 60 to 70 mph).  Electricity consumed was indicated by the chargers, not the dashboard.  On that, I calculated 3.56 mi/kWh.  It's from a SUV with an 8-inch ground-clearance and AWD on mostly highway running A/C.  The other day, I went on a biking trip.  The bike was carried on a platform hitch rack.  Driving was almost entirely rural highway (55 to 60 mph) with A/C.  Since trail parking offered free charging from an unmetered EVSE, no kWh data was available.  72.9 miles was round-trip.  I was delighted with the dashboard results.  (Yes, my bZ4X has the software update.) Despite the obvious aerodynamic compromise, it still delivered 3.6 mi/KWh.  Most of my commutes are around 4 mi/kWh, summer obviously.  Winter will be interesting, since I have the unique advantage of those infrared heaters.  Radiant warming for your legs & feet is an innovative way of squeezing out better efficiency.

9-02-2023

Never Learn.  More needed to be said.  Some never learn... because they don't want to.  I keep pushing facts regardless:  As for the business aspect of "EV industry", think about what drives that.  It's profit... which isn't looking good.  We are now witnessing a plateau of inventory here, as well as an undeniable dependency on tax-credits, and a price-war in China.  Claiming "miles behind" means nothing in that regard.  Notice the mandate pushback now emerging in Europe? We learned from CARB long ago that pushing a specific technology, rather than focusing on goals, isn't effective.  In fact, we saw some of those old mandates fail spectacularly.  Watching some here so recklessly follow that same history is rather remarkable. Some obviously never learn from the past.

9-02-2023

Miles Behind.  That didn't go well.  Someone fed the "behind" narrative with a bunch of the usual nonsense.  I asked for clarification as to what Toyota was behind with.  This is what I got: "Everyone in the EV industry knows Toyota is miles behind almost everyone else..."  Same old nonsense.  Just like with politics, actual facts aren't deemed important.  Ugh.  That is how I ended up gravitating toward audience for replies.  They can spin arguments points.  But when it comes to trying convince someone, their effort falls apart.  Those already in the cult simply keep repeating the same old talking-points, not even listening.  No one cares.  Heck, the only reason I engage in those hostile exchanges is to observe the weaknesses they eventually reveal from getting sloppy trying to trip me up.  That's why I toss it right back on them:  Who?  An ordinary consumer will encounter bZ4X and see a BEV delivering a 250-mile range, fast-charging up to 150 kW, and rock-solid reliability.  If they dig deeper to find real-world shares from owners, they'll see efficiency averaging around 4 mi/kWh.  Pushing the hybrid & hydrogen narrative doesn't change any of that, nor does it have an audience much beyond online venues.  Ordinary consumers will see Toyota's PHEV and BEV choices growing, as well as Subaru shoppers.  Looking around in the market here (United States), we see federal support for highway corridors (NEVI) is only now starting.  That is what's miles behind.

9-02-2023

Struggle Unseen.  Some don't want to see.  Others are not capable.  After all, what is there that's exciting about paying the bills?  That's what automakers do.  Steady profit is the goal, not quick returns.  Stockholders certainly don't want a lot of risk.  Ongoing dividend payments are much better than a one-time sale.  Traders are quite different.  They simply don't care about the long term.  Sadly, that mentality is what becomes the focus of importance for enthusiasts.  They lose touch with their original want to change the world.  It becomes an obsession with just improving upon their niche.  That's why references to "EV Market" way back when were such a concern.  Now, we see those niche offerings struggling to draw sales from ordinary consumers, even with deep discounts and generous tax-credits.  Sure, there is the building of infrastructure impeding progress.  But enthusiasts don't have the patience for that.  The first phase of NEVI will take until the end of 2026.  Heck, most states are only now making their decisions to award contracts for those first builds.  That leaves automakers struggling to come up with their own means of remain solvent.  You can only invest so much before a sizeable return is required.  Most enthusiasts absolutely loathe Toyota's approach.  The need for patience is definitely not their forte.  So, it's the on-going effort to portray a "behind" narrative to keep the spotlight from noticing their own preferred brand doesn't have an actual plan and current efforts are not looking good.  I continued on with the discussion today posting:  Toyota's slow & steady build up of their subsidiary will work well with their plans for 2025.  The plant in Kentucky is expected to have 3 production lines then... one for the new bZ5X... one for Camry (hybrid only, ICE discontinued)... one for bZ4X/Solterra.  In the meantime, they are refining the software based on initial owner feedback.  That's how the juggernaut operates.  They are striving for strong profitability and 11 million sales annually.  While other automakers struggle with BEV transition, Toyota has a plan to actually get there without burning bridges along the way.

9-02-2023

More Exaggeration.  There was another meme.  This time, it stated: "I just saved $25,000 dollars on a car battery, because my car runs on gas."  I was quite amused and fired back with:  Gotta love how the only weapon available is exaggeration.  Cost per kilowatt for EV batteries is around $100, with a realistic expectation for that to continue to drop.  From a 300-mile vehicle using a 90 kWh battery-pack, that comes to only $9,000... well under the quoted $25,000.  The battery-pack won't ever actually need to be changed though.  Toyota's warranty in Europe is for 1,000,000 km (621,000 miles).  How long do automakers provide a warranty for their gas engines?

9-01-2023

NEMA 16-20.  Advice was asked about using that existing outlet in his garage, rather than running a new line for an estimated $1,200.  This is the info I shared:  20-amp maximum for the line equates to an allowable 16-amp sustained pull (20% reduction for safety).  That means the fastest you would get (240 volts * 16 amps) is 3.84 kW.  That's more than double the speed of your level-1 charger, but slow compared to the typical level-2.  For perspective, consider basic public level-2 chargers pulling a sustained 30 amps.  That delivers, just a little over 6 kW, having a lower input of 208 volts.  At home, you have 240 volts. That voltage bump from the same 30 amps to delivers 7.2 kW.  With that, you can recharge about 200 miles of range overnight.  Long story short, the line you already have will works fine but eventually will leave you wishing you had invested in the upgrade.  Check with your local electricity provided for rebate opportunity.  In our case, we got $500 per line.

8-30-2023

Obsolete, reply.  I don't expect useful feedback.  Many times, some people just feel the need to share their thoughts without getting any type of advice.  It's basically just a validation of not having overlooked anything, which is quite constructive actually.  With this, it was different: "I completely understand your thoughts.  I love love my last electric but too small.  I really didn't like that it couldn't even get an update from 3g to 4 and lost many critical features..."  That was obviously an original model Leaf.  The perspective & feeling is indeed understandable too.  I followed up to that with:  I got a chance to look at Lyric last weekend.  GM's definition of luxury was at the level of my 4X, which has a few Lexus similarities.  I was quite surprised.  The drive quality of Mach-E in many reviews has been a notch below 4X, where it's clear Ford had other priorities.  ID.4 is a very close competitor, but I've seen it as a set of tradeoffs on roughly the same level.  Toyota focuses heavily on longevity.  It really comes down to preference.  With regard a 3G to 4G upgrade, that was an industry wide problem.  We saw a lot of those oldest public level-2 chargers get discontinued for that very reason.  It simply wasn't practical to replace certain components.  Heck, we all see that coming in North America for NACS. You will get stuck using an adapter and being limited to a speed like 150 kW.  Due to cost & liability, that's just the way it's going to be.

8-30-2023

Obsolete, worry.  Here's the start of post for you to consider: "I have had an ev in the past and I really enjoyed it.  I am a bit worried about the tech and being obsolete after paying so much.  So, I may consider pre-owned.  Are there folks out there that have these cars and if so what are the pros/cons.  So, far Volvo has a better warranty compared to the Mach-E.  I have considered Tesla - sigh..."  The concern expressed didn't actually address anything specific.  So, it was a bit of a head-scratcher trying to figure out what the perspective really was.  Well aware of the venue, I replied with:  Know your audience.  Don't ask enthusiasts about something being obsolete.  As soon as the next update becomes available, they declare everything else unworthy.  That's why you should seek out supporters instead, those with a focus on getting mature technology into the hands of mainstream consumers.  In other words, question your own worry.  What is the true concern?  We all know there's a next-generation of battery-chemistry on the way.  It will be faster, lighter, smaller and more energy dense.  Enthusiasts will declare the current offerings obsolete the moment that becomes available... regardless of cost or proven durability.  Being the latest & greatest is their priority.  Why would an ordinary vehicle owner seek out those same traits?  This is the very reason a seemingly conservative automaker like Toyota gets mocked & belittled so much online.  Enthusiasts simply aren't interested in high-volume sales of well proven technology... despite the fact that it will continue on being used for many years to come.  If you have no need to exploit the newest feature, why pay a premium to acquire it?

8-28-2023

New Audience.  Whoa!  That random comment resulting in an explosion of attention.  It's like 2 decades ago.  Again, I unintentionally turned myself into a lightning-rod by speaking out. (3,062 likes and 1,210 replies)  Back then, as it is now, the technology was still in the establishment stage.  Evidence is overwhelmingly supportive of that being the future, but the road ahead is clearly not going to be easy.  This is why I participate on unfriendly venues. That's where you get the blunt & unpleasant feedback.  They'll sight extremes, preparing you for constructive rebuttal later. What I was curious about is if the rhetoric has changed, now that we see chest-pounding from the "vastly superior" crowd finally subsiding.  What are the actual concerns of ordinary consumers?  Turns out, most of the posting focused on charging.  That's really good news.  Remember how in the not-too-distant past there were concerns about freezing to death?  Change is slow.  Watch for subtle signs of progress.

8-28-2023

The Law Is Clear.  He went on and on and on, absolutely refusing to share any data.  He was upset and wanted Toyota to pay.  I calmly asked for what.  No answer.  It just ended up a series of posts ranting about supposed consumer harm.  Nothing would come from that.  I know.  It happens with every new rollout.  Someone has totally unrealistic expectations and feels they have been taken advantage of with their purchase.  Problem is, each post reveals a little bit more about the consumer's error.  They had mistakenly made assumptions and now they feel trapped.  So, we get a bunch of comments from someone who backed themself into a corner.  Ugh.  Here's how I attempted to wrap up that nonsense, trying to get the topic of efficiency stirred enough to distract.  If that can take hold, the embarrassment can be walked away from easier.  I asked a question to grab his attention, then shifted over to what was really important:  What law? EPA estimates are nothing but a standardized method of sharing efficiency info across the industry for useful comparisons.  They don't actual set an expectation. Read the detail associated with those numbers published.  What is clear is that when you drive faster than the testing criteria and in conditions hotter & colder, efficiency will drop significantly.  Disenchantment from new owners discovering this has been happening for the past two decades.  As hybrids entered the mainstream, efficiency influences finally started getting attention.  Have you bothered to check PSI of you tires?

8-27-2023

No Evidence.  That rant spun out of control.  It was a bizarre attack on Toyota without any clear reason why anymore.  The posts morphed into an owner seeking retribution.  I had to go back to the original post to figure out how that complex series of tangents came about.  It was obvious disenchanted combined with a significant set of incorrect assumptions.  What a mess!  He had already made up his mind too.  Comments turned into senseless gibberish.  There wasn't even any sense of arguing the abstract anymore.  Time to move on.  I just gave up by reminding him of how it all got started, then drew the discussion to a conclusion:  Claiming "Lost lifespan battery, each charge reduced." has failed.  No evidence was provided to support that.

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