Personal Log  #1210

April 7, 2023  -  April 9, 2023

Last Updated:  Thurs. 9/07/2023

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4-09-2023 Inevitable Change.  Only now are enthusiasts coming to realize status quo change is with regard to the BEV market, not the industry as a whole.  We have already witnessed a greater shakeup with the paradigm-shift caused by that double-whammy from both Covid's impact to dealerships and the chip shortage.  At this point, that obsession with engineering to deliver range & speed is losing importance.  Profitability is finally getting some attention: "Stellantis and RAM admit that the problem with them making BEVs is the cost of making them.  Which agrees with my prior knowledge, that TESLA is the ONLY company that makes BEVs at a profit, which was over 20% before the minor price reductions..."  That was quite an invitation to climb up onto the soapbox:

Such a narrative only serves to distract.  We know that Toyota converted its entire fleet to TNGA to achieve cost reduction and to position production for e-TNGA transition.  That move was to retain profitability.  What surprised Toyota was how much of a lower cost and faster assembly Tesla was able to achieve already.  That makes Toyota uncompetitive, but not unprofitable.  The challenge for Toyota is to accelerate their plans to reach e-TNGA phaseout sooner, which will raise profitability (as well as vehicle efficiency).

In short, the "TESLA still dominates" banter doesn't mean competition won't be ramping up to draw upon the massive untapped market for BEV still.  A quick look at what BYD is doing in China provides a wake-up call for those who only see sales through the lens of premium-priced vehicles.  An automaker like Toyota is highly skilled in dealing with operation when profit-margins are razor-thin.  Also, note how much highly quality Toyota's build is already.

Put another way, don't expect that dominating to ride upon large profits.  As sales for BEV heat up, margins will shrinks.  Tesla will no longer have long-time benefits, like selling carbon-credits or supercharger monopolies, to help balance the portfolio.  We will see struggle emerge, like paying a massive premium for FSD.  Reality of becoming a major player in the automotive market mean change will happen.

4-09-2023

New Construction.  It's nice to see others sharing the same sentiment: "There does not need to be more incentives on cars, there needs to be more on charging infrastructure.  Specifically level-2 chargers at apartments and condos.  It's going to be very difficult to get existing apartments onboard with installing chargers.  There needs to be a law saying that new construction apartments must have EV charging and the infrastructure in place to expand the number of chargers as time goes on."  Sadly, I'm seeing new apartment & condo complexes being built, none of which offer level-2 charging.  Heck, even new large commercial retail is completely void of any infrastructure supporting plug-in vehicles.  The situation is a reality shock, a major barrier few are willing to address.  Fortunately, we see a few now.  Sadly, the scope of the problem is quite large... as I helped to point out:  It's not just apartments.  We were looking at new houses a few weeks ago.  There were no accommodations for charging.  In fact, many had their service-panel in the basement no where near the garage.  Upon asking why no 240-volt outlets available, the builder's reply was they could be added upon request.  I then pushed for a reason explaining the omission of an obvious feature such expensive homes (starting at $400k) should include.  There was silence.  I had clearly pointed out a rather blatant oversight for the customers there were attempting to appeal to... and got the feeling none of those customers had noticed yet.  It's sad when you confirm the mindset isn't on basics like that still.

4-08-2023

Solterra Sighting.  As I was packing up from spending time at the coffeeshop, there it was.  I had my first Solterra sighting.  In line at the drive-thru by the door, I stepped out to say "Hi".  She hadn't ever encountered a Solterra/bZ4X owner either.  She just happened to stumble across a cancelled order and felt very lucky to not have to wait.  It was an excellent example of the showroom-shopper experience Toyota thrives on.  The curious customer will take a test-drive, then end up signing papers.  No technology intimidation from such an encounter is telling of that approach & audience.  It's something the conquest crowd fails to understand.  I thoroughly enjoy stories like that.  They are confirmation of truly having reached the difficult audience, potential sales otherwise lost.  There has to be just enough to draw interest. but not so much that it will stir any type of uncertainty.  It was exactly what you want to hear from the first owner you encounter.

4-08-2023

bZ4X photos, album page 5.  We call the dirty snow piled on sides of roads and in parking lots "snirt".  Turns out, we had a lot of it this year.  I was really hoping to get my 4X before the mountain of it at a local park started to melt away and look nasty.  The blizzard we recently had dropped a layer of clean snow on it and I just happened to be driving by there as the sun was setting... perfect timing for a few photos to capture the absurdity.  bz4x album 05

4-08-2023

bZ4X photos, album page 4.  Delivery of my 4X was great timing, just prior to a big dump of fresh snow.  Winter blasted us.  It looked awesome!  Hoping for great photos, I wasn't disappointed.  I drove out to this hidden park.  There was a bunch of beautiful scenery along with some opportunity to try out the AWD.  bz4x album 04

4-08-2023

bZ4X photos, album page 3.  I got my 4X right before the final storm of the season, a blizzard overnight that quite nasty.  We had a commitment 30 miles away first thing the next morning.  I scrambled to get the driveway cleared, grabbed the camera, then hit the road.  It was an awesome introduction to what the AWD could deliver.  bz4x album 03

4-08-2023

bZ4X photos, album page 2.  After waiting a year, delivery finally happened.  Winter already melted away, transforming scenery to Spring.  I had missed the opportunity for snow photos... or so I thought.  Wednesday afternoon I drove my bZ4X home from the dealer.  Friday evening a blizzard was forecast.  Saturday morning, there was a fresh new layer of snow clinging to everything.  Woohoo!  bz4x album 02

4-08-2023

bZ4X photos, album page 1.  This is what happens with new DC fast-chargers, ones that just recently opened.  Clearing spots for owners to park doesn't get priority.  The plow came through only to open up a path to get through that area.  Fortunately, there was enough cord and the vehicle port is in a convenient location for dealing with that winter challenge.  bz4x album 01

4-08-2023 Understanding Speed.  It started with this, then turned into a confusing word salad: "I have an issue with my charging and want to see what you folks have to say."  Basically, the new owner was given advice without explanation of what purpose or any meaningful numbers.  This is where those documents I have been working on become very useful.  As more feedback is provided from people who have little to no background, the better of a resource we'll have to refer to... just like in the old days of Prius.  It's quite exciting to be able to contribute like that again.  Here is what this encounter resulted in:

Not understanding what "fast" represents is the issue.  Anything you do via AC is slow, whether at home or a public charger the level-2 type will have no impact to longevity.

At home, you'll have a 240-volt 32-amp maximum draw from your ChargePoint charger (properly called an EVSE, Electric Vehicle Service Equipment).  That will deliver a sustained rate of 7.2 kW.  From 8 hours of charging, you'll get roughly 56 kWh when subtracting losses from conversion from AC to DC.  At an efficiency of 3.5 mi/kWh, that comes to 196 miles of EV range.  Using a level-2 charger in a public location, the draw is slower at 6.2 kW.  That's due the lower 208-volt feed from a commercial AC line than what you get from a residential AC line.

When you charge from a DC fast-charger, the equation is quite different the resulting speed will vary for a number of reasons.  Charging at 50 kW is the tried & true rate, proven to do little with regard to aging when the battery has a good cooling system... as bZ4X does.  It's when the draw is much higher, above 100 kW when longevity comes into play.  This is where the slowing above 60% common begins for most BEV, what owners refer to as the charging-curve.  For protective automakers like Toyota, you'll see a ramp-down of speed sooner.  For those taking to the wind, they'll push speed faster & longer.

Long story short, nothing you do at home will be detrimental.  7.2 kW is far slower than anything that would raise concern.

4-08-2023

Spreading Hate.  It is truly bizarre to watch that Toyota group on Facebook with a Tesla fanboy as an admin posting content to spread hate.  He's still using the platform to promote Tesla and belittle Toyota.  There are a few enablers who encourage that behavior to.  Today, it was a post commenting on a supposed objective side-by-side comparison which added: "You forgot to mention that the Toyota and Subaru have the worst rate of DC fast charging.  And sometimes if it's cold outside they don't even DC fast charge.  They are only city cars not for out of state/province travel.  Biggest flop by any manufacturer."  Conveniently overlooking how much Bolt gets praised as a huge success for GM, despite charging even slower.  As for the outright lie about not being able to charge if it's cold outside, that's where knowing audience comes into play.  How stupid did that poster think readers are?  In extreme low temperatures (below -20°C, -4°F), you have to first wait for the battery-heater to provide warmth before charging will start.  That's not any different than other BEV.  Only difference is Toyota pointed out the limitations of lithium chemistry.  Other automakers remained silent on that topic.  Ugh.  Of course, the whole idea of a "city car" is just a distraction anyway.  Think about how often that was brought up for Bolt without impact to sales.  To those going out of their way to spread hate, I keep my replies brief.  I also try to avoid posting on that group as much as possible, but want to maintain a message of not having left it.  So, I post a reply from time to time, often trying to engage the person with a question.  Today, it was to that nonsense with: Notice how the tradeoff to favor battery-longevity & energy-consumption over faster charging speed is required to draw that conclusion?

4-08-2023 Plan Acceleration.  I didn't step down from the soapbox after the horse analogy post.  I started another comment to continue sharing background & insight on the bigger picture.  Much if it is information readers simply haven't thought of.  Know your audience.  Topics like that are great opportunities for exposition.  I jump at the chance to provide that:

What's really at issue for Toyota is acceleration of plans already in place.  Political motivation to address climate-change and fossil-dependency is finally getting traction.  That was the key element missing up until now.

Ironically, the biggest argument Toyota haters have used for years is the necessity to change leadership and willingness to take risk... both of which we have seen play out recently.  The new CEO made his first presentation only yesterday, providing some clarity as to how the increased BEV emphasis is expected to play out.  And for their first worldwide BEV offering, we see that Toyota did not play follow-the-leader with regard to battery-management.  The choice to slow DC fast-charging for the sake of longevity and reduced overall consumption took balls... a fact haters refuse to acknowledge.

What this all means is the shift to PHEV will become more pronounced.  The new Prius will only be available as a plug-in for Europe.  In the United States, first year allocation for Prius is expected to be 1/3 the plug-in model.  Watching reviews, it's easy to see how Toyota staged the vehicle for easy abandonment of the hybrid model.  Becoming plug-in only ushers in the opportunity for more plug-in vehicles, showing an undeniable commitment to EV driving.

That brings us back to acceleration of plans.  My own household started 11 years ago with one PHEV, transitioned to two 6 years ago which included replacement of that original PHEV, then last week one of those PHEV got replaced with a BEV.  Meanwhile, the upgrade cycle results in a spread of the tech to family & friends.  They get the plug-in being replaced.  That is exactly what Toyota planned on happening.

So, whether or not Toyota officially declares ICE a dead horse soon really doesn't matter.  We see the new Prius Prime and bZ4X creating momentum regardless of what new sources focus on.  Pressure from governments... like enactment of California rules in Minnesota on January 1, 2024... will help stir demand.  Encouragement from the first phase of NEVI with highway corridor installs of DC fast-chargers to be completed by December 31, 2026 will too.

The point is to keep momentum going.  Notice how Nissan stalled with Leaf and GM stalled with both Volt then later Bolt?  The narrative of "kicking & screaming" conveniently overlooks those who remain silent, failing to retain progress forward.  Both rested on their laurels and enthusiasts used Toyota as a scapegoat.  That was quite telling.

Anywho, it comes down to knowing Toyota doesn't rest.  Some just don't like the slower pace, which we now see accelerating.

4-08-2023 Horse Analogies.  I only got 2 words into the second sentence before thinking of a horse analogy: "Imagine if Toyota had used its experience with Hybrid technology and produced a BEV when Nissan launched the first Leaf.  Maybe Tesla would have never happened.  In a way we are lucky that an outsider was able to open up the transition.  The struggle Nissan is in now is exemplary for what happens when a company bets on different horses.  I hope for all of us that Toyota will soon declare ICE a dead horse."  Reading further, I was amused to see he had as well.  That encouraged me to post a long comment, adding my own horse reference into the discussion:

Imagination not required.  We have been through this already.  When Toyota takes a huge lead, the industry ignores them.  That went on for years with hybrids. Honda, Ford and GM all tried to compete.  Each gave up.  VW instead decided to cheat.  Toyota was so far ahead, there was nothing to gain.  A third-party without legacy ties was the missing ingredient.

Of course, the same barrier existed for Tesla.  Battery technology simply wasn't good enough.  Way back in 2003, that Prius was capable of 100 km/h for electric-only driving.  But with energy-density so poor and cost so high, there was no point offering a BEV.  Instead, Toyota focused on BEV component advancement.  That's how the 2016 Prius PHEV was able to deliver a heat-pump standard, before Tesla.  That's why both Prime models have delivered EV drive flawlessly since the day they were rolled out.  That is also why naysayers have been silent about bZ4X reliability; they know Toyota's all-electric propulsion system is already well refined.

So now, we await refinements to the platform itself.  It's not just Toyota.  Each legacy automaker will struggle to figure out how to optimize production, reducing cost & time to compete against their own ICE models.

Winning the first race as a black horse really doesn't address the next race either.  The fact that Tesla provided an example of how to deliver an outstanding niche does not guarantee any type of success in the mainstream market.  In fact, there is very real concern on Tesla's part about BYD taking that lead position.

Toyota has a transition plan. ICE phaseout, in the form of hybrid-only offerings, is well underway.  That enables a very easy next step to plug-in hybrid... which doesn't require an immediate level-2 install... comes with no range anxiety... and there is never any worry of DC fast-charger reliability.  That makes the following purchase of a BEV a no-brainer decision.

In other words, asking us to imagine brings us to the same position facing the same issues.  It was just a journey on another path.  The other legacy automakers are just a stuck without any good plan for ending their ICE offerings.

4-07-2023

Exaggeration.  This response was textbook rhetoric: "I'm sorry that you don't understand battery physics.  You cannot blast 350KW into a 30 KWH battery with current technology."  I was delighted to reply to that especially when such a predictable troublemaker invited the opportunity:  It is absolutely hysterical that you keep evading points being brought up by under & over stating values.  I point out 200-mile range, you drop it to 50 miles. I point out 62 kWh capacity, you drop it 30 kWh. That's an undeniable sign of desperation.  Reality is, that mass-market target is what ordinary consumers need.  More is simply a want.  Attempts to mislead by sighting other values won't change that.  Heck, it isn't even Toyota that you're attacking.  We see VW trying that here in the United States.  In Europe, many others are offering the same thing.  Enthusiasts simply don't want to recognize need, claiming necessity of what they want.  Acknowledgement of modest specs means admitting to diminishing returns. There is a balance.  Speeds like 350 kW simply are not required.  Exaggeration is a means of attempting to conceal that.

 

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