December 2, 2022 - December 4, 2022
Last Updated: Weds. 2/22/2023
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BOOK
INDEX
| 12-04-2022 |
Familiar Remorse. Yesterday, a long post from a bZ4X owner concluded with: "On the way home we were showing cold and rainy a 1.9 miles per KWH. Two more long waits to charge to get home! Love the car, love Toyota, hate this range and charging. Would not buy this car now know how limited the car is on range. For God's sake this is TOYOTA!" That's an easy to recognize pattern. He was poorly informed. He needed to vent. It is a familiar buyer's remorse post. I replied back, seeing how his follow had morphed into propaganda material: Without providing any data, this is just a waste of all of our time: "The other BEVs I drove being M3 (SR+ and LR) and Ioniq 5 RWD. Lightyears ahead of the bz4X." We're seeing the same thing with those supposed terrible reviews. Absence of a control should be obvious, but that missing basis of comparison is not. Don't feed those poorly written articles with more of the same. That's what contributes to rhetoric. |
| 12-03-2022 |
Any Evidence? It's nice to get something civil &
constructive. I especially enjoyed answering this: "Do you have
any evidence that the CATL batteries might be LFP? I'd love for that
to be true, since I have an early reservation for the Solterra, but I don't
think that's the case. I'd love to be wrong on this!" Upon
seeing that, I grabbed a coffee and sat down to type a loooong spontaneous
brain dump: In this business, there isn't really "evidence" to be found. It's like looking for a smoking gun. You most likely won't ever find that direct of a link or confirm. However, there is motivation to follow for clues. Remember, this is a competitive market. Revealing all your cards is often more of a bluff... as we see GM and Tesla do on a regular basis... you know, promises that aren't realistic. Toyota is different. They don't prefer the subtle approach, to much disappointment of enthusiasts who thrive on pushing limits. LFP is a great example of disappointment. Why would an enthusiast show interest in something that sacrifices energy-density and charging-speed for the sake of longevity and lower cost. Those are boring attributes... something only a business motive would really support... hence where to look for clues. The most obvious is the partnership with CATL starting back in 2019. Knowing Toyota plans for things long in the future, seeing the opportunity to take advantage of the LFP patent expiring in 2022 should be obvious. In China, there was the EV convert model of CH-R/Izoa. Following that in Europe, there was the EV convert of UX300Ee. No detail was ever readily available; however, the upcoming upgrade of that Lexus just happens to be 72.8 kWh. That matches the bZ4X with CATL cells. Digging a little, you'll find the slower DC charging and the 1,000,000 km warranty make it too much to be just a coincidence. Behavior in colder temperatures is another clue. Both NMC and NCA chemistries are impaired below freezing, but no where near as much as LFP. Emphasis on reduced performance when the battery-pack is cold stands out a bit too much to be just a casual mention. It's good to make sure owners are well informed, but being certain they understand the importance of warm cells isn't something that should be taken nonchalantly as other automakers have with NMC and NCA. We will ultimately get a confirm like Tesla did for their LFP owners. A few months after delivery, they were informed that charging to 100% from time to time was necessary. That's because the variance in voltage from fully charged to depleted is minor. If you don't charge all the way, the system could potentially be incorrectly estimating charge-level. Calibration based on full is required... which is another clue... seeing painfully slow DC rates when SOC exceeds 90%. Approaching full at a high speed makes detection when to stop extremely difficult. To avoid potential damage and ensure accurate measure, rate is throttled way down. The most important clue is the one that's most difficult to notice as an enthusiast. Toyota knows other automakers are risking reputation and financial well-being by pushing limits. The disastrous battery recall for Bolt is evidence of such gambles. It cost GM & LG a fortune to replace packs and now GM is selling Bolt at a loss to rebuild trust. Seeing how eager CATL is to enter new markets, how much they are embracing improvements to LFP chemistry and supporting rollout of Sodium-Ion options, it makes a lot of sense to leverage their Toyota partnership. Think about the choice of distribution. Their virgin market here is loaded with many eager to pay a premium for a model that favors attributes Toyota is best known for rather than longest range and fastest charging. Give that audience a choice. Watch how they respond. Since here in the United States we are so SUV obsessed, it's a sensible exploration. Let our purchase decisions indicate preference, not hype from supposed industry experts. Over in China, LFP cells supplied by BYD for the bZ3 sedan will help evolve that more efficient platform. It's a strategy no one is really paying close attention to. This ended up being quite the ramble. But watching this play out for so long in slow motion, it's easy to see keyboard warriors completely overlooking such clues. At some point, the inevitability of a new chemistry will come about. Why not already give an alternative a try in advance? That real-world comparison data is priceless. After all, issues with supply make having options vital. CATL really, really wants to grow and expand reach to the United States anyway. Needless to say, there's more to come. Watch for it. |
| 12-03-2022 |
Toyota Loyalty. That's the favorite approach, claiming the person is blind to everything else. My loyalty to Toyota is fiction. I have been an active member of our local EV group for nearly a decade now. It is awesome getting to hang out in person with so many fellow Minnesota plug-in vehicle owners. They are a good bunch, quite willing to share experiences & wisdom. I'm really grateful for that. I'm a daily participant on a very big ID.4 group (over 9,000 members). They welcome the input and I thank them for sharing ownership detail. It makes sense to seek out feedback from VW supporters. They are allies with Toyota, each striving to phaseout traditional vehicles without losing the big chunk of their market now challenges by startups from China. Assuming some type of allegiance for Toyota clouds that perspective though. That admin continues with his insults, pushing the belief that "Toyota can do no wrong". Sound familiar. It's the same old nonsense. They don't like alternate paths to the same goal, so they attack. Shooting the messenger is so childish. Ugh. I put it this way: Another clue... you choose to look the other way when I post something favorable about other automakers. Making it appear to be all about Toyota is key to misrepresentation. |
| 12-03-2022 |
True Colors. He's showing them now. Creating a meme portraying Toyota as purveyor "horse & buggy" was so telling. That goes beyond the constant insults. That's evidence of feeling threatened. A year ago, he created the group and since then over 4,000 people have joined. Being an undisputed leader, giving the apparent image of being well informed and fully supportive of Toyota & Subaru, no one ever questioned his stance. Continuous references to Tesla provided an allure. Why would he also show interest for consumers like us too? He was hoping for Toyota to deliver improvements upon Tesla design, bring an industry giant to the game. It would transform the industry. Unfortunate for him, that transformation is not the way he had hope. Tesla's focus on range & speed isn't a priority. Toyota even said that. They have already developed an 800-volt system, but the benefit wasn't worth the cost. Know your audience. Toyota customers aren't looking for ultra-fast. They want reliable & affordable. That's why range isn't a primary concern either. Needless to say, he doesn't care. This group creator has turned into a troll. The provokes are so obvious, so desperate, so telling. It's simply not worth the fight. A battle won against him wouldn't achieve anything. So instead, I just replied to the endless taunts with: If you haven't noticed, I'm not going to bite. The stream of insults tell us a great deal about why you are so worried. Each reveals another clue. |
| 12-03-2022 |
Rude & Insulting. The attitude of being "vastly superior" is getting obnoxiously bad. Ever post, there are personal insults following exaggeration. Watching history repeat with such vivid memories of that past now playing out again is fascinating. My choice is to ignore as much as possible, just responding with information to counter the nonsense. This was the latest: Know your history. "The car's programming (done by Toyota, presumably, which would be their VERY FIRST TIME with such programming for a production EV) is what controls the charge rate." That couldn't be further from the truth. Prius Prime was offered with CHAdeMO right from its debut in some markets. That carried over to UX300e a few years ago, along with support for a CCS adapter. |
| 12-03-2022 |
Mentions of LFP. The effort to get people to think
outside the box is working well: "You keep mentioning LFP, but there's
no evidence the CATL batteries are LFP. That would change everything,
but if it were true, Toyota and especially Subaru, would be bragging about
the increased safety and longevity of their batteries. All current
evidence just points to the CATL batteries being inferior." What
would serve as evidence online? Nothing is ever good enough.
That's why so many of the clues already available get overlooked &
dismissed. I keep at it. The point of getting everyone to
consider other options is the point. So, mission accomplished
regardless. It's a win-win situation. I also requires a great
deal of understanding the culture difference. Toyota doesn't brag.
I put it this way: That's not how Toyota operates. It could also potentially result in the Osborne Effect, which is something no automaker would ever what to intentionally cause. So just like Tesla, you take the rollout slow and keep it simple. Don't overlook the obvious either. CATL is a company in China. Avoiding political fallout is very important too. As for the claim of being "inferior" batteries, that evidence is entirely anecdotal. You're making judgment based on speed & range. What about durability? We know for a fact the absence of nickel & cobalt make it a safer battery and provide a significant increase in charging cycles. That same chemistry is much less expensive. So what if range is reduced? Some would consider that a superior tradeoff. Again, Toyota doesn't operate in the same manner as other automakers. Part of that is actually the secret to their success. Toyota doesn't brag. Heck, sometimes they don't even promote. The approach has been to empower owners to take advantage of the power those endorsements convey. Since I will be a bZ4X North American AWD owner and I am already digging into details with the hope of confirming battery chemistry... |
| 12-03-2022 |
Long Game. Assessing future success based upon initial results is risky. The problem of audience is a big one. To make the product reach a wider market, sacrifices must be made. You can't just expect to make more and more will be purchased. Enthusiasts are happy to pay a premium for something appealing to their desires. That's a want, not a need. To achieve cost reduction and address shortcomings inevitably discovered throughout early sales, change is required. Heck, to deliver more refines to design are inevitable too. That optimization is change to the product itself. That's why comments like this are meaningless: "Pretending that a Tesla, Kia, Hyundai and others aren't "killing it" while Toyota "mails it in" is a bit bizarre, too." The narrative is that nothing will change. The benefit is the reality that Toyota manages change exceptionally well. Sometimes those actions are so subtle, they don't get noticed. That's where the "mails it in" comment is so vindicating. Enthusiasts reviews of Corolla Cross were that it was dull & boring, nothing to standout of impress. Consumer reviews of Corolla Cross were the crossover felt & handled nearly identical to the sedan model, making it an extremely compelling choice for those looking to upgrade but not wanting change. I pointed out: This is no different than Prius. Remember that history? Notice how it stood the test of time when rivals didn't? Notice how it spawned popular variants? It's about diversity & patience. Toyota plays the long game. |
| 12-02-2022 |
No Sense. Gotta like this rant: "...it's so obvious that they found reasonable to let customers have atrocious long recharging the 100kw awd." It ended with: "It just make no sense." First, since when is 100 kW slow? People continue to swarm to Bolt, despite having a top speed of 55 kW. Maximum speed isn't important to everyone. Heck, look at how many still don't have 5G data-service for their phone... despite such widespread availability. The infrastructure is well established. The hardware & software is well proven. It comes down to priority. That extra speed is looked upon as a want, not a needed. The job will still get done with slower. The analogy doesn't work well either, since sticking with 4G doesn't provide a benefit. In the case of Toyota's deal with CATL, even if the cells weren't LFP, they would still be lower cost. The well proven NCM chemistry has been highly refined to reduce production cost. That's a big deal when having to face import-tax and dealer-profit challenges. Anywho, I pointed out what continues to be overlooked: Actually, it makes a lot of sense. CATL is heavy into LPF, favoring that for expansion to new markets. Using their partnership with Toyota to do exactly that is a reasonable business choice, especially being a more robust chemistry. After all, Toyota's focus is longevity. Look at how the LFP patent and UX300e rollout played out. Then consider the goals Toyota has set. There is quite a bit of potential, especially when you look at how the other legacy automakers are dealing with results of their initial endeavors. Placing a priority of DC fast-charging at the top is what doesn't make sense. |
| 12-02-2022 |
Failure. Gotta love the narrative spread: "So yeah, Toyota didn't do too well."
It reminds me of the initial rollout of Prius. Sales were low because
there was limited supply. Toyota provided a fixed allocation to each
market. Antagonists would spin results as a reflection of weak demand.
Supporters were constantly having to point out the painfully looooong
delivery waits from so many outstanding orders. They would spin
outcome to their favor, to make Toyota appear to not have done well...
exactly like they are doing now. I sighted the following: Judging outcome of whether or not Toyota did well depends upon what expectations were set. For enthusiasts, they were expecting range & efficiency to stand out as industry leading. Why? That's not the stage the industry is at anymore. We need reliability... where consumers will trust the hardware & software. Looking at what GM and VW are dealing with, that clearly should be a priority... not range & speed. It is unfortunate that Tesla focused on pleasing enthusiasts. Model 3 and Model Y are terrible examples of a product for the masses. Toyota's effort will continue to get slammed. Enthusiasts certainly haven't expressed any support for the CATL cells, despite that being exactly what mainstream consumers will want. Using LFP means the vehicle won't lose value as quickly, due to the greater number of cycles available for that chemistry combined with Toyota's slower DC fast-charging. Of course, this 4X is just their first model. A smaller vehicle... 3X... will naturally be more efficient and more affordable. Lastly, notice how no one is paying attention to how successful the EV drive has been in Prius Prime and RAV4 Prime? For that matter, UX300e has pretty much been invisible. Each has provided priceless all-electric experience for Toyota to leverage with their "bZ" nameplate even before the first gets rolled out. |
| 12-02-2022 |
Mountain Efficiency. Very few Tesla owners act vastly superior. True, they are by far the worst violators of level-2 public chargers. Sadly, I see them parking at the grocery store on a regular basis without plugging in. Grrr. Each incident has a minor reach. It's not like those online who are continuously posting cherry-picked numbers. Look for variety. In this case, a helpful Tesla owner shared some perspective on the report from Norway. Since most of us don't have much (or any) experience with efficiency from mountain driving, this insight was appreciated: "2.1 m/kwh over the mountains with heat blasting. Not too far off from my Tesla, I guess. She also reports that a full charge reads as 305 miles range and is getting 2.2 around town." Sharing of personal observations is priceless. That's why I was so thrilled by the ID.4 owner publishing detailed videos of his winter driving. Results were similar, dipping that low in temperatures below freezing while driving at highway speeds. In other words, witnessing the same thing on a bZ4X shouldn't be a scandal. It should be expected. That is predictable behavior under those circumstances. So what if a government rating doesn't reflect that. Thankfully, our EPA value here is somewhat closer to reality. That WLTP value in Europe contributes to misleading, an opportunity being exploited by some right now to portray Toyota as having criminal intent. Ugh. Of course, that's to be expected. A system not designed to measure mountain efficiency will naturally create problems for those assuming it does. Anywho, I kept my reply brief: 2.1 mi/kWh is what I'd expect under those conditions too. As for the range estimate, Toyota leaves a huge buffer. One test I saw revealed another 26 miles of range after having hit 0% on the display. To get the true SOC, you'd need to use a ODB-II reader. |