November 18, 2022 - November 23, 2022
Last Updated: Weds. 2/22/2023
page #1179
page #1181
BOOK
INDEX
| 11-23-2022 |
Absence of Objectivity. His decline is a source if inspiration. It's a repeat of the past. I find the pattern very encouraging. There's nothing left to argue with already. We're just getting a flurry of adjectives, not any numbers anymore. That's a sure sign of desperation. It's like shooting the messenger. They run out of material. A narrative without anything supporting it falls apart. I'm looking forward to that with this nonsense. Here's how I pointed out seeing such an obvious decline: The real story is how "tolerable" and "worse" and "poor" and "disappointing" are being used rather than actually stating an expectation. That's the same absence of objectivity we got with hybrids. Be prepared for an onslaught of real-world data to address the missing critical thought. |
| 11-23-2022 |
Real-World Data. From antagonist to hater. That admin's attitude is remarkable. It's the same old vastly superior nonsense. He claimed bZ4X was at the low end. I knew he meant range & speed. He absolutely refused to acknowledge that. We he did was repeatedly insists Model Y was better, despite being so much lower to the ground and smoother shaped. Being a different vehicle type targeting different buyers made no different. His was better. He claimed the same about ID.4 too, insisting efficiency was much better despite the estimate stating otherwise. Heck, even just being able to compete is impressive. He doesn't care. It's strange. Why would you start a group, then grow so disenchanted you lash out at the very people you supposedly support? Oh well. Those of us he is trying to harm have a not-so-secret weapon... actual experience. I'm thrilled owners are starting to sound off. Today, it was one who waited to get his vehicle back after enduring the long recall fix. That duration empowered & encouraged him. I appreciate the sharing now as a result. Here is my response to that today: 2.8 mi/kWh at that speed from an AWD with such a high ground clearance is great. Some of that efficiency likely comes from having an AC synchronous motor rather than DC permanent magnet. For perspective, that's actually comparable to an ID.4 with RWD... which is evidence that Toyota didn't scramble to compete. Keep on driving. Your real-world data is priceless. |
| 11-22-2022 |
Hate Revelations. It is always interesting when a hater really pushes. Sometimes, a revelation will emerge because the discussion meandered in a totally new direction. It's a discovery process for everyone. In the end, a shortcoming is exposed... that checkmate moment. I find it fulfilling taking the time to play the long game like that, where every move takes a great deal of thought. In fact, that is what these blogs are for. They force me to go through the lengthy process of identifying each & every possible influence to properly predict the next move. That research is often so extensive, the actual step taken is obvious by the time if finally happens. The example today started 20 years ago. We knew back then Toyota wanted to deliver all-electric drive, but battery-cost and energy-density were far too little to make any difference. Yet, the design itself supported it anyway. That's why antagonists made up stories about Toyota scrambling to retrofit their design, having discovered the hybrid system could indeed support EV drive. When you study the engineering, it's obvious. When you argue online as a keyboard warrior, you're just making up stuff based on anecdotal observation... spinning narratives to fit the conclusion you already drew. Ugh. Anywho, you can tell when this situation is playing out. They evade questions, doing everything possible to avoid confrontation of fact. I put it this way: Again, no detail. Shooting the messenger because you don't like the message is a sign of desperation. The cold, hard reality some don't want to accept is the fact that a well designed PHEV will deliver an all-electric drive just like a BEV. In fact, some achieve a higher efficiency. There's the bittersweet principle of economics-of-scale working in reverse too. When end of life-cycle approaches, excess capacity turns into optimization to lower cost. That oversupply results in fewer choices at reduced prices. Both Toyota & Hyundai are well aware of this phenomenon. It means PHEV will serve as a bridge in more than one way. Not only will it usher in BEV, it will also usher out ICE. |
| 11-21-2022 |
Poor Sales. Several of us really liked the assertion made that the time for hybrids is over and evidence of that is recent poor sales. Naturally, I was amused. So what if other automakers are seeing a decline and the long-in-the-tooth, strangely-styled outgoing Prius has seen dropping numbers. Both were expected outcomes at this point. Remember how we predicted that Toyota would need to do something really big for a 5th generation to be successful? There was a hope that the non-plug model would be phased out. No one anticipated a pandemic with such widespread component shortages. No one saw a big political pushback either. For that matter, hope was that Tesla's plug would be holding back standardization either. All that has consequences for mainstream change. With the status quo still intact, it's nearly impossible to advance the fleet forward. Fortunately, Prius remains an exception to the rule. That reveal of the new design has blown people away. I have read quite a number of articles where the writer said "I never imagined..." Seeing such a sleek style and hearing how much power the new design offers has blown away even the most critical critics. Back in our own little world of forum bickering, I found this bit of sarcasm quite satisfying: "Hybrid sales are poor? Someone should let Toyota know." Even without Prius, we see exceptionally strong demand for RAV4. I can't wait, and won't have to for long, to see the response to new Prius rollout. Heck, seeing the first one will really take me aback. This is the first time in 22 years that I'm not jumping on the latest & greatest offering. My hybrid days aren't over, since my wife still has a Prime. But moving on to a BEV means reaching a new audience. Here's how I responding to the today's banter regarding Hyundai's recent endorsement for hybrids: Excitement for the new Prius has silenced many naysayers and the rest have been taken aback, sending praise to Toyota for such an next-gen impressive upgrade. Hyundai can see the market opportunity. |
| 11-21-2022 |
Hybrid Transition. This was an article title written
to provoke: "Hyundai US Boss Says Hybrids Provide Transition To Electric Future".
That's just too much temptation to resist on a website that favors BEV.
In fact, it's so bad PHEV basically get ignored. I see it as
undeniable necessity. We need something to bridge the gap.
Calling that a "stop gap" solution was old school spin attempting
to mislead. That's doesn't work anymore. People understand how
much of a difference there is between hybrid and plug-in hybrid.
Here's what I had to say on the topic: It makes sense if a process moves along at a steady pace with clear intent. The transition is already playing out for Toyota. Upgrading existing hybrids... Prius & RAV4... offering more compelling configurations, along with plug-in models. Phaseout traditional models... Sienna & Venza, offering hybrids only in their place. Then finally, move to only plug-in models... as we see Prius will becoming in Europe. In the meantime, continue offering new plug-in models... Crown & Venza... and at some point, Corolla Cross. While all that is happening, establish a product-line of BEV equivalent offerings... bZ4X (RAV4), bZ3X (CH-R), bZ5X (Highlander), bZ3 (Corolla). Seeing Hyundai make similar plans, especially in the light of EV tax-credit fallout, is a logical next step. After all, we still have serious shortcomings with regard to lack of DCFC and absence of a single plug standard. Heck, even level-2 access for many shows no sign of encouragement yet. What will other legacy automakers do? Claims of going "all in" are very questionable when we still see such long wait-lists and expectations for profit years away. Simply selling non-hybrids in the meantime isn't a solution. |
| 11-20-2022 |
False Victory. Fall of 2023... pretty much an entire year from now... Chevy will be rolling out the 2024 Equinox EV. Despite the obvious wait still, we got this today: "Chevy just beat Tesla to the EV promised land with a $30k SUV" Seeing that, all I could do was roll my eyes. Ugh. Talking about a great example of "The tortoise and the hare" playing out, again. Adding to that claim of false victory, this was the subtitle: "Chevy delivers an affordable electric SUV, which is at the top of most EV enthusiasts' wish lists" That is absurd. Nothing has been delivered yet. It's nothing but an announcement. Only a few days ago, GM highlighted their EV rollout plan clearly stating it would not be profitable until 2025. I was beside myself. But since it was a post which brought the article to my attention, I had a something to respond to. So, I did with: That's a propaganda piece, declaring victory an entire year before the first is delivered. |
| 11-19-2022 |
Attacks From Within. When the forum attack comes from a troll, that's easy to spot... since they are an outsider and intent to undermine is clear. When someone from inside, it's more of a challenge to notice... since they actually own the vehicle and participate in discussions as such. The catch is, most of their criticisms are negative and they tend to disagree just for the sake of keeping posts active. What happens when that person is the admin of a group with over 4,000 members? It's for bZ4X and Solterra, but he never intends to actually buy one. ID.4 RWD, Model Y, Mach-E and RAV4 EV are his current & former vehicles. He was rather vague about their status, but the attitude is clear. After posting quite a number of articles to denigrate the very reason for the group, someone finally called him out: "Dude... Most of us are here because we're excited about the bZ4x and Solterra and all you do is lift your leg on it. What are you even doing here? Respond or boot me if you like." It is a strange situation to get attacked from within like that. I jumped in posting: This is a repeat of history. Something similar happened back when a group of us were founding an online venue for Prius, back in early 2000. There was an expert from a prior era (converted his own ICE to an EV) that disagreed with Toyota's approach. Balance was unacceptable. His priority was to push performance instead. We ended up having to deal with a lot of counter objectives as a result. Seeing Toyota intentionally holding back on both speed & range for the sake of longevity rubs enthusiasts the wrong way. Fortunately, I already recognize others here who are happy to ask questions and share real-world experiences. It's all about reaching those hesitant to embrace change that we should focus on. Those favoring a particular strength can go on enjoying their preference. Just don't get in our way. We have that wider audience to tend to, ordinary consumers seeking a plug-in vehicle... who have very different priorities. |
| 11-19-2022 |
Speed Reminder. I suspect this reminder will need to be posted on a regular basis, since comments like this are quite common: "The max charge-rate on a Level-2 EVSE is 6.6 kW." That emerged on the post from the Denmark driver. I replied with: Note that the "6.6" is really just a generalized category. That's maximum pull from a commercial charger here... 32 amps @ 208 volts. From my own level-2 EVSE at home, I'll be able to pull a steady 7.2 kWh with the initial draw even higher... 32 amps @ 240 volts. My Prius Prime is rated for "3.3" but actual draw is always a steady 3.6 kWh. |
| 11-19-2022 |
Getting Interesting. A person in Denmark borrowed a 4X and drove it around, trying a variety of chargers. The AC type delivered 5 kW. The DC type wouldn't go any higher than 12 kW. He wondered what to do. Others on the group asked for detail. We found out he had only driven 38 km and the temperature was only a little above freezing. SOC (State Of Charge) was not mentioned. If the level was high, slow would be a normal result. I assumed it wasn't near full, so I posted this to take advantage of the teaching moment: I get the impression its battery was cold. The warmer for my Prius Prime works exceptionally well. Even when outside temperature is -20°C (-5°F) while parked completely exposed at work, charging operates at the usual speed. When I get my 4X, the first thing I'll do is connect a ODB-II reader to find out what battery data can be seen. I suspect temperature is readily available. Apps like ABRP tap into vital info to adjust driving & charging plans as you drive. The goal is to keep the pack at least 5°C (41°F), below freezing significantly increases electrical resistance... hence such slow charging. Only a little warmer is necessary for ordinary AC charging and EV driving. For substantial DC fast-charging speed, battery temperature needs to be 50°C (122°F). So if you were dealing with a battery close to your reported outside temperature of 2°C (36°F), slow would be a realistic expectation. It needs to warm up quite a bit first. |
| 11-19-2022 |
Charging Curve. Ever notice how there is no ceiling, that faster is always considered better? What purpose does that serve? With such a confusing concept, how exactly will ordinary consumers understand what the curve means and how to really take advantage of it? We know for a fact most people have no interest in detail. They want plug & charge, no thought required. Selling the idea of faster is even worse than a diminishing return. It could end up having a negative impact. Remember when I was first researching DCFC stations? I discovered a vast array of aging 50 kW charging options. My conclusion was that even if thought of as slow, delivering a consistent 50 kW rate the entire time charging regardless of temperature or charge-level, then mission accomplished. It would be simple to use. From timing to pricing, easy to understand. Turns out, that bar for speed was set too low but the idea is sound. We can already see that rise starting to happen with 150 kW stations. That is what IRA funding has favored. So when a newer BEV plugs in, like VW Buzz which will supposedly have a curve which peaks at 190 kW, it will draw a steady rate of 150 kW. That's plenty fast and ensures others using the station won't be penalized. We can hope most stations will be smart enough to load-balance. But when an electricity guzzler comes along attempting to draw far more, then what? If all stations were capable of 350 kW, that guarantee of 150 kW for each charger required by IRA builds would be lost. That knowledge of the station location providing for all 4 chargers delivering a continuous rate of 150 kW each is very important... and being totally overlooked by those obsessing with the curve. |
| 11-19-2022 |
Complete & Utter Nonsense. How do you respond to something this absurd: "There is the potential that they may have nothing to offer when sales of hybrids are banned. It will leave them without the network to handle all electric transition. It's a high risk strategy and very shortsighted." Making up a narrative to portray Toyota as anti-EV can only be taken so far. Was this person completely obvious to what Toyota already offers? That seems far fetched. But then again, there are still Volt owners who argue that their plug-in hybrid is the series type. With so much information stating otherwise, missing such vital information about the very topic of discussion goes beyond bizarre. Being aware of that, this isn't as preposterous as it would seem. Anywho, I ended up dealing with that mess stating: That claim of "nothing" is an act of denial. Toyota is already selling UX300e and bZ4X, with RZ450e on the way. Just yesterday, the concept for what appears to be bZ3X was revealed. There is also a bZ5X in the works. All of which are BEV. More are planned for 2025. As for "high risk", tell me what the supposed all-in automakers have for a transition strategy. How will they appeal to those resistant to change? |
| 11-18-2022 |
Very Annoyed. There's a particular EV video channel that I held in high regard, at first. But over time, the bias became a problem. They are purist and don't like anything with an internal combustion engine. That's understandable. However, when that position turns into an anti-Toyota stance, journalistic integrity is lost. Eventually, it turns into claims like this one made today: "As many outlets have noted, Toyota's offerings are still ultimately powered by gasoline." That is what was said about the 5th generation Prius reveal. Rather than anything positive about the improvements to the Prime model, it was that nonsense. I was annoyed, very annoyed. That simply isn't true for the plug-in models. I drive for 2 to 3 months on each tank for gas. Many routine are entirely EV driving. With a larger battery, some of my random longer trips would be electric too. I was first to comment on the video today. This is what I posted: How is that any different from other legacy automakers who's plug-in offerings are also a very small percentage of their sales? VW is leading the way with just 6% sales EV. Seeing Toyota only offering Prius as a plug-in for Europe, setting the stage for that same transition in the United States, should have been noted. It's clear you don't like the approach, but it is indeed reaching audiences resistant to change. Look at how much RAV4 Prime has drawn interest for plugging in. Think about how a following purchase will very likely be a Toyota BEV, fulfilling their long-term strategy. |