Personal Log  #1168

September 26, 2022  -  October 3, 2022

Last Updated:  Thurs. 10/27/2022

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10-03-2022

Easy for Homeowners.  This is another one of those needs for a face-palm.  You know that moment is approaching from the attitude leading up to the post itself.  They downplay complexity & cost.  No big deal.  Easy peasy.  For example: "For those of us who own our own homes, we can easily install a pair of 240V 20-amp circuits to charge our EVs.  This will provide 35 KW in a 10-hour charging period, which for most EVs translates into 120 miles of range added overnight.  Unless you have a very long commute this means that even if you get home on a Sunday with a very low battery you'll still have plenty of power on Monday."  Remember how we were told for years that the biggest benefit of an EV was leaving your home every morning with a full charge?  That was to alleviate range-anxiety.  No need to worry, such your battery is always at full capacity when you leave.  Now, that manta has vanished.  It's as if the topic never existed.  Now, I'm seeing a scramble of those too enthusiastic struggling to deal with reality.  It is not easy.  We need to be upfront & transparent.  Providing the curious with answers to all their questions.  It may be somewhat complicated, but there's no reason to be intimated.  Walk them through the process.  Show them how it works.  But don't tell them it's easy.  How many people actually know how to safely do the install he mentioned?  I replied to that with:  The claim of "easily" is disingenuous.  For those with garages that are not attached and those with service-panels on the opposite side of their house from parking, it is indeed "easy".  All you have to do is sign a very large check, your local electrician would be more than happy to run a line out to that location.  It's good business for them, but a major deterrent for homeowners.

10-02-2022

Better Battery.  Because the battery charges faster, it must be better.  That assumption lives on: "...lack of details on north american awd version, equipped with the unknown technical details of the CATL chinese battery.  In europe they are lucky, Toyota chose to give them the better versions and equipped all models with the Panasonic."  Here in the United States, we are quite critical of SUVs, making the basis of that assessment flawed.  Once word gets out of a better battery being offered by other automakers, demand will be put on Toyota to do the same.  Finding out after the fact that Toyota already was sure will be a bitter reality to accept.  Heck, even if it isn't LFP, the fact that Toyota diversified from day-one shows acceptance of change.  They see the potential in BEV and have the willingness to accept risk by trying a variety.  Anywho, I have been very actively watching the market and was quite surprised to discover in August of last year Tesla has so quietly rolled out their LFP switch.  It was in September that I dug into that, having learned about the upcoming patent expiration.  Word of availability was only a murmur for the longest time.  Finally in the early part of this year people started talking about what that actually meant.  The reason why was simple, knowledge of the 100% charging requirement had begun to raise questions.  Heck, even by April when the first bZ4X AWD fast-charging video was published, most online chat was still unaware of what it meant switching to LFP.  That limited difference measure from voltage change for determining state-of-charge makes LFP difficult to support.  Not wanting to take it at anything beyond level-2 speed when approaching full totally makes sense, especially when you are promoting longevity.  This is what I had to say about the situation as this point:  Lack of detail on the CATL battery makes sense if you consider chemistry.  Look at how Tesla handled their switch over to LFP.  Seeing Toyota explore that opportunity with the North American AWD model is a very real possibility.  So what if initial charging is slower, it's not like that can't be software adjusted after the default config proves accurate (state-of-charge display).  Remember, minimal voltage variance gives good reason for slower, especially near 100%.  Think about challenges in cold temperatures too.  For Toyota to take on that right away, rather than playing it safe is what exactly what naysayers have wanted.

10-01-2022

No Plans To Change.  They keep pushing that mantra for Toyota, its strategy on electrified vehicles.  Having to admit there are very real problems still is too much to accept.  Trouble is, I'm finding evidence of that even from enthusiasts.  2 days ago, I was at an event sponsored by our electricity provider.  It is a co-op that has been really supportive.  We get the opportunity to show off the vehicles at the events they host.  It gives me an opportunity to not only speak with ordinary consumers about plug-in vehicles, right there in person, I also get to talk with owners.  That ownership reveal is troubling.  Many are getting by with just the minimum, only a single level-2 or using nothing but a level-1.  That works fine for limited use.  But for an entire household to switch to plugging in, there's trouble.  This is why enthusiasts evade the topic.  When I ask the question of how a second vehicle will be charged, there's a moment of awareness leading to silence... in person.  Online, they change the topic.  Thankfully, not everyone is that way.  For example: "One of the few car companies that can see beyond the end of their nose."  Seeing that we have to address challenges beyond what early-adopters faced is difficult.  That's why there is a shoot-the-messenger reaction.  They don't want to hear what Toyota is saying.  For today's encounter, I replied with:  Focus on low-hanging fruit is a very real problem most just shrug off. It should be obvious that the shift from expensive high-profit to affordable low-margin will be extremely difficult.  Smaller EV with range that isn't enough to cover a road trip need to become the norm for 100% sales by 2035 to be realistic... a change EV enthusiasts don't want to accept.

9-30-2022

Hybrid Strategy.  There's a click-bait article going around.  Toyota is being portrayed as anti-EV for the purpose of diverting attention.  The next stage in adoption is extremely difficult and doesn't look promising.  There's no direction or even clear messaging.  It's like the mess public level-2 charging as become.  Some of it has gone so bad, chargers are being removed.  Seeing that long sought option no longer available is disheartening.  Having someone to blame makes the disenchanted feel better... hence villianizing Toyota... their scapegoat from consequences emerging of their unwillingness look beyond the immediate next step.  Short-sightedness is a very real problem still.  Anywho, this is what I had to see about the latest distraction effort:

This nonsense of "hybrid strategy" is really an effort to avoid addressing what happens when all the low-hanging fruit is gone.  It reminds me of when Volt was still around.  References to Toyota were always "Prius" to avoid the uncomfortable subject of technology spread. GM couldn't find an effective means of spreading Volt technology across their fleet.

Toyota has already mastered the necessity of spreading hybrid technology.  In fact, that has been so effective almost all their vehicles now offer a hybrid model and ICE phaseout has begun.  Prius & RAV4 have already evolved into PHEV variants too, with Crown and Harrier (Venza) expected next.  The reason should be obvious, infrastructure is seriously lacking in many parts of the world... including the United States.

Toyota's push forward continues.  Prius will get a next-generation plug-in system and bZ4X rollout will resume.  All that makes the claims of "hybrid strategy" a sign of desperation that the other automakers don't have any idea how to reach beyond the initial audience, those seeking change anyway.  The reluctant & unknowledgeable present challenges.  Those without someone to routinely recharge will be too.

There are hidden problems as well.  Think about the households with only 1 outlet available for overnight charging.  Their first BEV purchase may have been easy.  What does it take to entice a second, knowing they don't have capacity to recharge multiple vehicles at the same time?  That's where a PHEV comes into play, a plug-in hybrid with simple electricity needs... something to compliment the BEV.

9-29-2022

Why?  Reading posts like this are no surprise: "Truly unbelievable!  Why no openness?  Trust is gone like that!"  Having to evaluate & select, supply & deploy, then plan & notify is a monumental effort.  Yet somehow, it is supposed to happen quickly & perfectly.  Patience is not for everyone, clearly.  People want updates along the way, despite the incredible challenges of conveying incomplete information well and having to deal with those trying to mislead.  Ironically, we dealt with this long ago from GM.  They promised openness, but each time we got an update it was about something else.  The topic of interest was evaded... providing an illusion of sharing information, but not actually providing anything of substance.  Ugh.  In this case, I know the non-engineering part of engineering quite well.  To implement, many things must still happen... long after a fix is found.  You make discoveries along the way that interfere with schedule and could even cause a rethink, due to supply constraints, expertise required, or just cost.  After over 3 decades of dealing with that in my career, I know the process isn't fast.  Like I stated before, you're looking at 90 days optimistically and more realistically 120 days.  Oh well.  Some people just don't want to hear that, so I posted:  History reveals that it is best to remain silent.  Every time Toyota states something, the message gets twisted by others to mislead & misrepresent.  There are many who want Toyota to fail and think nothing of being dishonest to achieve that.  Search online.  You'll find quite a few efforts already for this recall.

9-29-2022

Crown PHEV.  News of Crown being offered as a plug-in hybrid stirred attention today.  It's a new twist on the emerging market of hybrid variety.  That will become the first to be offered in 3 different configurations... regular hybrid, max hybrid, and plug-in hybrid.  Of course, we likely won't see that PHEV here for awhile.  Rollout will being in Japan.  With SUV choices being favored so much here, it's difficult to predict how our market will respond to a new sedan... especially one without a traditional counterpart.  It is starting (technically, coming back after 50 years) as only a hybrid.  That makes it very easy to see the direction Toyota is taking.  The once-upon-a-time talk of phasing out traditional models with hybrid choices is well underway.  What seems such a natural next step now isn't in the moment.  Heck, there are so many right now refusing to see how phasing out hybrids in favor of plug-in hybrids becoming the next natural step, it's almost pointless to bring up the topic.  Why is a mystery?  My guess is they really don't understand how the technology works.  That natural bridge from PHEV to BEV seems illusive too.  It should be obvious.  All you are doing at that point is removing all gas-engine related components.  The vehicle already runs entirely with electricity.  Oh well.  Even if they don't understand, many will still purchase it anyway.  That's the reason why the slower path... taking the next natural step... is so successful.  It appeals to those intimidated or uncertain, while at the same time addressing such a risk filled business.

9-28-2022

Harrier PHEV.  The vehicle known as "Harrier" elsewhere in the world is known as "Venza" here.  Today it was revealed that a PHEV model would be rolled out.  We figured it was only a matter of time, since it shares the same platform as RAV4.  Seeing a Prime model of Venza would be sweet.  I suspect that is already planned following ramp-up of RAV4 Prime.  Starting in Japan makes sense; that market has even bigger challenges than we have here in terms of infrastructure.  I'm looking forward to more news like this.  Making a plug-in hybrid model of Corolla Cross hybrid would be a good next step for us.  That seems extremely likely, especially knowing there will be batteries produced here starting in 2024.  It's a solid business approach, spreading risk among a variety of offerings rather than pandering to politics.  We get hybrid, plug-in hybrid and battery-only.

9-28-2022

bZ3 Confirmation.  The built in China for the market in China BEV sedan from a partnership between Toyota and BYD will begin sales by year end.  Not much has been known about this offering due to the reveal being cancelled last spring due to Covid-19 challenges.  It will use LFP blade batteries.  This is solid proof Toyota is becoming familiar with intimate detail of how that chemistry works.  Absence of both nickel & cobalt reduces cost and increases longevity at the penalty of slower charging and increased weight.  That puts the price of this vehicle... roughly a Corolla with larger back seat area... around 200,000 yuan ($28,000).  That's about 30% less than what the entry-level Tesla currently sells for in China.  It sets an interesting stage there, especially when the other major battery-supplier is also partnered with Toyota.  That is CATL, who provides battery-cells for the North American AWD model of bZ4X.  The battery thought to also be LFP.  An interesting twist to this is finding out the China version of bZ4X will be produced in the same plant as bZ3, in Tianjin.  That adds a little credibility to the blatant misleading effort we had to deal with earlier in the year.  He was wrong about the vehicles we would be getting, which we repeatedly pointed out many times.  That will be produced in Japan exclusively by Toyota.  But there will be a for-China model BYD produced also.

9-27-2022

Desperate Propaganda.  I'm seeing videos being published now that contain outright lies, stuff so desperate, it's sign of early success.  We have seen the same kind of nonsense in the past.  Those supporting the competition get worried, very worried.  So, they make up history.  They draw conclusions, telling you want you should believe.  Supposedly, bZ4X is already a "death trap" and it will take years... if ever... to recover from so much reputation damage.  What is this based on?  Most people have absolutely no idea what Toyota's schedule is for BEV rollout.  By the time many find out, the recall would have long since been resolved.  Heck, think about how Prius Prime and RAV4 Prime are discovered.  People see them plugged in at public chargers, only then learning that Toyota offers plug-in vehicles.  Claiming game over already is absurd... but a very familiar pattern.  It happens each time Toyota finds a way to reach ordinary consumers where others have failed.  Each time I encounter another one of these videos, I can't help but to be amused by the absence of objectivity.

9-27-2022 Keep It Simple, Stupid.  We've been through this before.  Problem is, there is legacy to deal with now.  That puts Tesla in a difficult position.  To grow, it must expand reach beyond the niche in which sales boomed.  Enthusiasts have very different priorities... and they are now noticing Tesla is becoming less supportive of them.  Appeal to a wider audience requires change... you know, breaking away from Innovator's Dilemma.  I was happy to dive into this discussion and quite curious about replies I could get from posting:

Tesla found itself backed into a corner with battery chemistry.  The direction of 4680 was perfectly fine for its enthusiast audience, but appealing to mainstream buyers requires a contradictory choice.  Rather than willingness to pay a premium for maximums, there would need to be the option of trading range for longevity and lower cost.  That meant introducing LFP into the decision process... a complication Tesla was able to avoid.  Suddenly, the automaker would have to face the reality of selling batteries that clearly more robust and could be routinely charged to 100% without consequence.  How does an automaker change its messaging?

This is where Toyota thrives.  Remember how reviewers of bZ4X complained about state-of-charge percentage not offered anywhere on the display?  You want that detail, you have to use the vehicle's app or a third-party charger.  So, it's available if you want it, but the intended audience doesn't see that as vital.  Basics are enough.  More only serves to confuse & intimidate.  Know your audience.  We saw the same thing with Prius.  No where was RPM displayed on the vehicle interface, but even the most basic ODB-II reader and app provided it.  The data was completely unnecessary for the ownership experience ordinary consumers want.  KISS.

As pointed out advocates want to promote... plug & done.

9-26-2022

Total Disaster.  This was the title of the article: "Towing With Ford F-150 Lightning A "Total Disaster," Owner Finds."  I was beyond annoyed.  It was clearly hype over substance.  Sure enough.  Comments were no better: "Guy who refused to learn basic physics upset when he finds out that laws of physics still apply to him.  FFS, he gets the short range version of a 1st gen EV truck and expected to do long distance towing in cold weather?"  That come from a well known troublemaker.  I was all too happy to reply to his attempt to stir rhetoric:  The problem with articles like this is how vague and overly dramatic they are.  Telling us "total disaster" even though the destination was reached just fine doesn't add up.  He experienced range-anxiety.  That's all.  It's not like he had to abandon his load to seek out the nearest charged, then ended up stranded there for hours or had to call for help.  Ugh.  Of course, absence of any mi/kWh value makes this pretty much click-bait rather than informative.  References such as "three times worse" don't convey anything useful.  Imagine the outcry some would have being so vague for other topics, like charging rate.  References to "miles" are better, but without stating travel speed, that's basically worthless.  As for your loss of touch with reality, thinking 55°F is cold weather...

 

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