Personal Log  #1335

September 17, 2025  -  September 24, 2025

Last Updated:  Sat. 11/01/2025

    page #1334         page #1336         BOOK         MAP        INDEX         go to bottom     

 

9-24-2025

Commitment.  If there are not obvious signs, commitment to something goes completely unnoticed.  That's why so many enthusiasts miss seeing the bigger picture.  When they stumble across enough anecdotal observations fitting their assumption, they find that as a confirmation.  It's like no one knows how to research online anymore.  Ugh.  For example: "It simply means that they were not ready to commit resources to EVs.  That has been very clear from everything they have done."  It what?  Everything?  This is how we ended up with the "EV Market" problem.  Focus only on what they consider leadership (pushing limits) is the problem.  They find that easy to measure & critique.  This, they do not:  Just because there isn't anything consumer visible yet, doesn't mean commit didn't already happen.  bZ4X generation upgrade cycle got compressed to just 3 years.  That was an acceleration of the original plan.  At the same time, there was a $13.9 BILLION investment for battery production in Tennessee.  While that was happening, 3 new BEV were created.  Urban Cruiser has been rolled out and CH-R & Woodland are on the way.  Following that will be a 3-row offering.  In other words, don't let the "behind" narrative tell the story of progress.

9-24-2025 Too Soon.  Expectations of subsidized sales doing more than provide easy introduction was a common theme.  Enthusiasts seemed to think ordinary consumers would jump on the opportunity, as if the tech was well established.  Some see the flaw in that logic: "My gut response was that it was too soon to drop the EV tax credits, but with time to settle on it a bit, it's probably past time..."  I attempted to provide some perspective on the topic, now that expiration is less than a week away:

Conquest sales were the first outcome of tax-credits.  Those proved to do nothing to break the status quo at dealers.  Loyal customers kept their aged vehicle with a newer model of the same.  Benefit came in terms of establishing the technology.

Following conquest was low-hanging fruit sales.  Squeezing in more battery, than convincing consumers more range was better, become a short-term strategy with long-term consequences.  We would have been far better off focusing on infrastructure instead, as other markets clearly confirmed a more beneficial priority.

Now, we are stuck with next-gen rollouts attempting to deal with fallout of so much emphasis on range.  Giant vehicles that guzzle electricity are a terrible choice in a stressed market.  Consumers aren't interested.

More tax-credits won't help.  IRA did nudge us in the right direction.  Encouraging domestic mining & production, along with NEVI's focus on travel corridors, was a good next step.

What I hear continuously we'll presenting my EV at events is the need for affordable choices, price tags in the $30K to $35K range.  Our market (United States) is finally waking up to that unfulfilled demand.  It's up to us as current EV owners to help guide interest.  Don't expect much government support.

9-24-2025 Committed.  Talking points often fall apart when you ask for an explanation.  For example: "There are not chargers at many Toyota dealers because Toyota is not committed to EVs at all."  Not having any clue what that means is a really big deal, something worth calling out.  It should be obvious the statement is subjective.  But most people don't take the measure as just an opinion until they hear the person making the claim try to quantify what they said.  How many would be enough?  What type of chargers?  Would they be available to salespeople or just the mechanics?  Is there a minimum speed required?  Notice how easily "committed" falls apart when detail is requested.  Imagine all the dealers offering a DC fast-charger with CCS.  Would not upgrading to NACS show a lack of commitment?  The situation is far from clear; yet, in an enthusiast mind all the answers are obvious.  Ugh.  I asked:  What does "committed" actually represent?  That's a reasonable question, since the "all in" automakers just backed off their pledges.  They were supposedly committed but now are in a scramble to realign.  Toyota on the other hand is continuing at their slow pace forward as planned.
9-22-2025

EREV Definition.  Now that attention is wavering from BEV domination, it makes me wonder how much the definition of EREV will continue to mutate: "While plug-in hybrids are essentially gas vehicles with EV-style components, EREVs work in reverse - they're EVs where the gas engine only exists to recharge the battery."  That's pretty basic, just misleading about PHEV rather than try to explain whatever supposed advantage there is.  I called out that nonsense with:

EREV started as a marketing term.  That's easy to confirm too, since the definition has changed several times over the years.

EREV was intended to have an undersized gas-engine and tiny gas-tank as backup power following depletion, a means of getting you to the next charger without travel interruption.  Only electricity came from the gas-engine, which meant just BMW's design qualified.  GM's did not, since it took advantage of parallel operation when efficiency opportunities permitted.  Charging the battery was never an objective.

PHEV (plug-in hybrid) designs vary dramatically.  Some, like Toyota, have offered full EV driving (up to 135 km/h, 84 mph) complete with heat-pump since late 2016.  Others may use the gas-engine for power assist and cabin heating.  The better configurations offer enough battery-capacity to cover daily EV driving.

In short, they share most traits what's usually portrayed.

9-22-2025

Enthusiast Blindness, blocked.  I got tired of the nonsense, deciding it was time to end it.  He simply didn't care about anything beyond making Toyota look bad.  Coming from an troublemaker so hell bent on causing harm, nothing was ever revealed about what he actually thought goals should be.  That tells to either indicate an oversight or a miscalculation.  Discovering there was a competitive trait from bZ4X would be embarrassing.  Antagonists cannot afford to be exposed as having an agenda.  That's why we saw Volt's goal posts continually being moved and definitions altered.  Heck, even it's overall mission changed when things started to go bad.  That's what makes gen-1 offerings so tricky.  What is their purpose?  As gen-2 approaches, enthusiasts begin to panic when they discover what they endorsed isn't what the market actually needed.  I found a particular recent blindness reply to post my statement in that regard:  Great example of how enthusiasts struggle to recognize their disconnect with mainstream priorities.  Not understanding how efficiency equates to vehicle cost & charging time explains your failure to relate to ordinary consumers.  And obsessing with range reveals your failure to see the bigger picture, how the market works.   Since you'll be blocked now, don't expect replies anymore.

9-22-2025

Initial Allocation.  Only a single Limited AWD has been allocated for Minnesota so far, but that counts as progress.  As usual, I'm just hanging until my dealer is able to get one.  Outcome in the past made that an easy decision.  I waited just over an entire year last time.  That's how my bZ4X ended up white.  It was part of the initial allocation back then.  As luck would have it, my purchase was the first in the state.  That may have only been by a day or two, but it was still nice knowing the effort they made.  I got it without markups or any surprise fees.  No trade that time.  In the past, trades were valued fairly.  It all works out and this should too.  The hardest part is always the same... being patient during the wait for an unknown.

9-22-2025 Amps Matter.  On the topic of DC fast-charging, this was asked: "So, theoretically, how much faster will a Toyota 2024 bz4x AWD charge faster on a 350kw charger than on a 150kw charger?"  I enjoyed providing the following information:

The problem is input amps vary, despite the kW label.  You end up having to do the math yourself. For example, I have a nearby DC station labeled as "120 kW".  Since our battery is rated for 355 volts (nominal) and the maximum apps that station could provide is 200 amp, the fastest speed I can pull from it is 71 kW.

355 volts * 200 amps = 71,000 watts

This is why a vehicle with a lower battery voltage, like Equinox EV, has a lower peak speed using the same DC station. It is only 288 volts (nominal).

Using a DC station rated for "350 kW" that supports 500 amps will bump charging speed up.

355 volts * 500 amps = 175,000 watts

bZ4X isn't rated for 175 kW, but it's easy to see how some owners with the Panasonic cells have witnessed speed above 140 kW briefly.

Calculations get messy when you take chemistry, packaging, temperature and charge-level into account.  But you get the point.  Amps matter.

9-21-2025

Recognizing Change.  This is how an enthusiast responds when they realize the narrative doesn't work anymore: "They are learning, at our expense, but they are learning."  It was also a question of how long it would take before there was a realization that gen-1 offerings from legacy automakers weren't actually up to the chore, that calling out Toyota was really just a distraction from their own problems.  Selling loss-leaders can't work long term.  Seeing tax-credits about to come to an end is making that all too clear.  Those early models were only competitive with each other, not the rest of the fleet.  People aren't seeing charging stations, so they have good reason not to accept arguments of being mainstream ready.  I replied to that with this insight about the understanding of status with the enthusiast community itself:  Realistically, the entire market here is still a mess.  Look at the incorrect advice given about not using a DC charger with faster kW specs than your vehicle.  That would only work if all EVs the voltage had the same voltage for battery pack. Amps matter too.  You can indeed benefit from a faster DC charger.  Many aren't aware of that though.

9-20-2025

Solid-State Sodium.  Chemistry is always a fascinating topic.  Sodium is the next level down from lithium.  Being directly under it on the elements chart means many of the same properties & behaviors are shared.  So seeing a post like this about the batteries is always the hope: "In testing, a battery utilizing the new material operated for over 5,000 hours at 80 °C (176°F) and retained over 91% of its capacity after 1,000 charge cycles."  That means there's a growing list of options to help the industry move forward.  Even if these batteries aren't used for vehicles, they would be great for storage.  Imagine what could be done for fast-charger locations.  Something like this could be key to delivering a lot of power fast, while also keeping cost down.  Getting a lot of electricity quickly from a provider isn't cheap.  Storage on-site is an obvious benefit.  The charger location owners could take advantage of lower electricity rates overnight, just like EV owners do at home.

9-20-2025

Enthusiast Blindness, efficiency.  Fear of that mi/kWh value has really begun to stand out.  Efficiency is the weakness in his argument he has nothing to counter with.  It was only a matter of time before he would exhaust his material and end up having to face the facts.  Who knows what he'll try next.  Most of the trolls I have dealt with in the past just suddenly vanish... especially when they are like him, no traceable identity.  That absence of anything to hold him accountable makes that easy.  Of course, that is also what made him so bold.  He could attack without consequence.  My goal was to exhaust all avenues of attack.  Efficiency has clearly emerged as an offense tool he has no defense for.  Confirmation of that became clear when he called me a "liar" and stated I had just made up the numbers.  It wasn't even cherry-picking at that point.  Sound familiar?  I remember that same behavior with Volt.  There was one antagonist who absolutely did not want to accept the real-world data I had presented... and ended up calling me a liar.  Ugh.  This was my response to the on-going saga today:  Those range values are from the Motor Trend article.  The "paper" values are official specs for each vehicle.  What scares you is the resulting efficiency calculation.  No amount of personal insult will change that mi/kWh.

9-19-2025

Federal Support.  When one of the states gets attention related to infrastructure build up and funding from the federal government, that's an invitation for me to jump in.  Upon getting my 2026 bZ, there will be much opportunity for me to seek out NACS charging opportunity.  We already have non-Tesla options becoming available in new builds.  It's only a matter of time before an existing station gets a few of its plugs swapped.  I'll be ready to help promote with photos & video.  In the meantime, it's just posts with status:  Minnesota has $10.8 million of their $68 million NEVI allocation obligated so far.  The locations are a nice spread along the 3 corridor highways.  At the same time, we're seeing CircleK, GM/Pilot, Ionna and Blink installs elsewhere.  A few cities have taken on funding their own install efforts too.  Heck, two of the recent installs even had a mix of CCS & NACS.  We all knew deployments would be painfully slow, but at least its progress.  Automakers are struggling to move beyond loss-leader sales and tax-credits still anyway.

9-19-2025 Enthusiast Blindness, detail.  Listing just the mi/kWh value for each vehicle from the review article was to the point.  I wanted to continue pushing how his vague references & accusations were acts of desperation easy to confirm by addressing detail.  So, I provided it for him to struggle with:  Detail doesn't scare me...

  100% ` 92% ` kWh ` Range ` Battery ` Vehicle

  3.2 ` 3.4 ` 79.5 ` 252 ` NCA lithium-ion ` 2026 Tesla Model Y Long Range AWD

  3.2 ` 3.4 ` 84.0 ` 266 ` NCM lithium-ion ` 2025 Kia EV6 Wind AWD

  3.1 ` 3.4 ` 85.0 ` 262 ` NCMA lithium-ion ` 2025 Chevrolet Equinox EV LT FWD

  3.0 ` 3.2 ` 74.7 ` 222 ` NCM lithium-ion ` 2026 Toyota bZ Limited AWD

  2.9 ` 3.1 ` 88.0 ` 252 ` NCM lithium-ion ` 2025 Ford Mustang Mach-E Premium eAWD

  2.8 ` 3.0 ` 84.0 ` 234 ` NCM lithium-ion ` 2025 Hyundai Ioniq 5 Limited AWD

  2.7 ` 2.9 ` 77.0 ` 208 ` NCM lithium-ion ` 2025 Volkswagen ID4 Pro S Plus AWD

9-18-2025

Enthusiast Blindness, messaging.  Watching his efforts fail to achieve anything, I stayed on the offensive with:  Posting the same old link over and over and over again is a hallow victory.  Some people never learn from history.  I remember one particular individual who did the same thing.  Every article about Prius or Toyota got the same old reference posted. Absence of any other supporting material made the outcome especially rewarding... those quotes didn't age well.  You see the potential from Toyota's PHEV.  The design is extremely well refined at this point.  So, you're attempting to shift focus to Toyota's BEV instead, which already looks good to showroom shoppers... proving the "behind" narrative no longer works.  With tax-credits coming to an end and legacy automakers backing off of their "all in" pledges, it puts enthusiasts like you in a difficult position.  As with the history I witnessed, what ordinary consumers say & do is different.  Enthusiast messaging no longer has an audience.  Go ahead, milk the review as much as you can.  People will simply move on to the experiences owners share... exactly as it happened in the past.

9-18-2025

Punishment.  This came about from an EREV verses PHEV discussion: "Simple solution if they were serious.  If the battery is not charged enough at the start of day (or at all), they could throttle the ICE and put it into limp mode.  Or some other physical solution to keep the owner alert."  Some people clearly don't think things through.  I wonder how much effort is actually made before some posts.  How could punishment of any sort be helpful?  Ugh.  I replied to that absence of critical thinking with:  Punishing an owner for not having enough charge at the start of the day would mean a BEV equivalent of the same thing, also a limp mode.  In both cases, you'd be forcing them to charge in the middle of the day.  Isn't the point to take advantage of the capacity available when, but having an engine backup when not?  Reality is, people take trips on weekends.  Plugging in then may not be possible.  Punishing them for using the vehicle for the purpose it was designed makes no sense.

9-17-2025

Enthusiast Blindness, trolling.  His desperation is so obvious, I wonder how many others have noticed.  Seeing the same reply posted 5 different times in the same thread is trolling.  No argument.  I can't actually call him out on it though, since my post would get flagged for moderation.  When those posts failed to stir my attention, this appeared: "Almost dead last!  Still behind!!!"  Watching someone so wanting to score a victory failed to make any progress makes you wonder what comes next.  I poked to find out:  Posting the same content to feed the "behind" narrative in every Toyota article you come across is an act of desperation.  It also confirms that their supposed failed vehicle has you very worried.  If it really was so uncompetitive, there would be no reason for such repetitive posting.

back to home page       go to top