Personal Log  #1328

July 16, 2025  -  July 21, 2025

Last Updated:  Weds. 10/29/2025

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7-21-2025

Expectations.  The first reply to my post about ordering a 2026 was about how much value is lost selling an EV nowadays.  That should have been obvious, especially with so many people leasing instead.  Of course, most have no plan what they'll do once that lease expires.  Toyota is likely hoping for that opportunity with this upgrade.  That adds more "value" to me for being able to promote.  Like at EV events, I don't actually promote the bZ much.  It's all about engaging the curious with information related to the state of the market.  That usually means sharing stories about DC fast-charging and winter driving.  Online, this is what I shared:  Across the board, significant depreciation was to be expected.  As much as enthusiasts wanted to declare the EV market established, it really wasn't.  Fortunately, value of Toyota vehicles like this tend to plateau.  It's really surprising how much really old Prius still sell for.  With regard to my order, this statement in the press release has me feeling a little jubilant: "2026 Toyota bZ is expected to start arriving at Toyota dealerships in the second half of 2025".  No clue what that means for me. But the wait is a part of the process I have grown quite accustomed to.

7-21-2025

It All Began.  I wonder who anticipated my next move or were aware of my history.  I shared:  December 1999 is when it first began.  I was among the first to get the gen-1 Prius, then upgrade to gen-2, then gen-3, then PHV, then Prime, then bZ4X.  Each involved a lengthy wait, but was totally worth it.  I was able to help with the learning & discovery process from being among the early owners.  That was the plan for bZ too... until the market got turned upside-down.  This mid-cycle update is simply too important to not be able to help out with.  So, I have officially started my wait for a 2026 today.  I was the first in Minnesota to take delivery of a 2023 order... after waiting a year.  It will be interesting to see how long this one takes.

7-20-2025 Progress.  Not waiting for whatever new trolling bait he would attempt, I continued on by commenting on two quotes from his previous reply:

I hadn't noticed the reason for such scapegoating until stumbling across the "for tech that's stalling" comment.  That history pattern I referred to is what we've seen in the past several times now, all playing out the same way.  Progress is disappointingly slow.

The race is treated as a sprint, not a marathon.  It is a tortoise & hare situation.  My endorsement for slow & steady... continuous improvement... angers those who want progress to be faster.  Frustration is then taken out on me when a stumble occurs, a problem caused by haste... which is usually due to not understanding what customer needs really are... something I pointed out.

That makes this other accusation posted easier to deconstruct: "dodging every real issue plaguing EV adoption: crumbling resale values, battery degradation, charging wait times, and grid overload".  Each one of those is an aspect of enthusiast impatience.  Ordinary consumers following don't face any of those issues.

2026 is a pivotal model year as a result.  Mainstream buyers will start with a NACS port and will see new charging stations built by a variety of providers.  Politics and concerns of enthusiasts won't even come into play.  The market has moved beyond that.

7-20-2025

No Consequence.  He was quite annoyed that I wouldn't accept his point.  He wanted me to provide praise for his upset from the reveal's lack of detail.  He wanted hard-core journalism, but couldn't explain who else did.  So, I simply replied back to his rant with "Know your audience."  That usually sets off quite a bit of anger.  There's no rebuttal for such a statement.  I pointed out his error expecting nothing in return.  He made a mistake, but there was no consequence.  In fact, I was presenting an opportunity to save face.  He could move on to something else, if he chose to.  He did not; instead, it was another rant.  I followed that with:  What argument?  There's nothing to debate.  We've seen this history pattern.  You don't like the speed or approach being taken because the market catered to is different now.  That's what happens as things progress.  The stage you related to most and really enjoyed has come to an end.  Audience has changed... hence what started all this, how a reveal is treated.

7-20-2025 Taking On Trolls.  Every now and then, that's the best thing to do.  Now playing offense, it's going to happen much more often.  That's a reflection of market progress.  Trolls don't like when their losses become obvious.  So, they lash out.  In this case, it was using me as a scapegoat because I supported the nature of the reveal a few day's ago.  That press release for Subaru Uncharted was light on facts and heavy on stimulation of the senses.  He doesn't like the fact that audience is changing.  His bait only works on other enthusiast.  Ordinary consumers couldn't care less.  I pointed that out.  He didn't like that... and after many exchanges, still doesn't.  So, I added:

I'm not here to win a debate.  I'm not here to please enthusiasts either.  My purpose is to endorse continuous improvement, an approach many here absolutely despise.  Those small steps are not exciting and are difficult to celebrate.

Victory comes from winning over the masses.  The audience is ordinary consumers shopping the showroom floor looking to replace their aged vehicle with a new one from their favored dealer.  You win them over by helping eliminate barriers, like providing how-to videos.

Claiming that doesn't address "declining margins, subsidy dependence, grid strain, charging wait times..." is a lack of understanding how macro economics works.  A well informed populous is progress, exactly what it takes to overcome those very challenges.

Too bad if you don't like current journalism.  As an enthusiast, you aren't the audience anyway.  The industry has moved on and the reach of this stage are your coworkers, your neighbors, your friends & family... not those who want to debate.

7-20-2025 PHEV/EREV Articles.  They are stirring lots of attention and generating lots of comments.  On one of the more constructive forums, there was a well thought out comment that deserved feedback.  Since his post was quite long & detailed, I took the time to reply with something similar:

Discussion of infrastructure shortcomings must distinguish between AC and DC charging.  With NACS rollout in progress, there will be much confusion to address.  Looking through forums now, it is very easy to find an owner who purchased a J3400 adapter thinking it will work for J1772.  Every time, the problem comes down to not understanding the difference.

Reliability comes into play at this point too.  Broken station encounters are thankfully becoming a thing of the past.  Software has been improved and hardware itself replaced.  Seeing locations support a mix of CSS and NACS plugs is now a reality.  That's only possible with newer DC equipment.

When it comes to PHEV/EREV discussion, don't overlook those with large packs supporting DC.  That introduces a paradigm shift. Towing a work trailer around the suburbs with electricity becomes realistic when DC is available.  Heck, think of how short of a distance some distribution vehicles drive.  Use can be mostly electric but with the guarantee of a gas-engine backup.

With regard to your experience, that's a ringing endorsement for households with multiple vehicles.  It's easy to consider a BEV with a smaller pack for daily use when there's a PHEV/EREV available.  Doing the math, an overnight (10-hour) session with AC level-1 (120 volts) can provide around 50 miles of range (14.4 kWh * 3.5 mi/kWh).  Even apartments & condos with no opportunity for AC level-2 (208/240 volts) could benefit.  So, there's worthwhile potential whatever you plug in.

At this market stage (2025-2030), we can see BEV purists becoming their own worst enemy.  If the goal is to get people using as much electricity as possible as quickly as possible, it simply makes no sense fighting against competitive (50-mile range with heat-pump) PHEV/EREV offerings.  Better designs flourish. Lesser end production.

Infrastructure will improve over time, as will batteries.  We are clearly not there yet though.

7-19-2025 https://youtube.com/shorts/vo2O8TjQDAU?feature=shareLexus Support.  Owners keep asking, from many different groups.  Today, I saw the question of support for the new DC charging standard here in the Lexus group.  Most have figured out CCS, gaining enough experience to make them anxious for an opportunity to expand their options.  Heck, even for me there's quite an interest.  Chargers where I travel are scare.  The convenience of being able to leverage what Tesla offers would be handy.  I'm happy to provide support in that regard.  Everyone wins when infrastructure expands.  Anywho, this was what I shared to that request today for information related to support:  It's not officially supported yet.   I suspect Toyota/Lexus is trying to coordinate new rollouts with native NACS rollout to coincide with sponsored adapter rollout.  In the meantime, you can still technically use one.  Here's a short showing a successful charge of my bZ at a Supercharger with my own adapter... NACS adapter at a Tesla Supercharger
7-18-2025

Data Science.  Gotta like the irony of the reply he provided: "I don't really have a few minutes to do that research.  I just know it matters to me."  Subjective assessments without anything at all to support them are worthless.  What is that telling anyone who reads that?  It doesn't state anything useful.  Heck, there isn't even a basis for someone to do their own research from that.  He doesn't have the time to find out if there is actually any real time saved.  Ugh.  I liked the ambiguity of the statement and responded to it with:  What actually matters to you... not having to wait for a charger to be available or having that charger finish sooner?  Such dismissals as nuance are actually a very big deal.  Data science is a massive new part of modern business.  Major decisions are made leveraging data often overlooked as unimportant.  It's how competition takes place when stakes are high in emerging markets.

7-18-2025

More Waiting?  This was the response I got from that "lost me" callout: "Slower charging = more waiting for chargers."  That especially caught my interest because I haven't ever seen that.  Even at busy charging stations, I have not witnessed that.  More often than not, it is someone trying to DC fast-charge beyond 80% that ends up being the hold up.  But when there is a rapid turnover, I'm not ever seeing a vehicle still pulling 150 kW when they unplug.  That means they are pushing way past the charge-curve benefit, where you actually get see meaningful benefit.  How much time is actually shaved off when the session is able to pull faster?  I haven't ever seen any data that is enough to equate to more than being trivial, just a talking point.  So, I asked:  Where is some data showing those few minutes actually make a difference?  Diminishing returns must be addressed when business investment for how many chargers and how fast there should be is such a vital decision.   In other words, less waiting might be better achieved by having more slower chargers.

7-18-2025

Subaru Uncharted.  We got the basics from its reveal yesterday.  Being a rebadge of the C-HR, there were no surprises.  You get the basics with an expectation of more to follow.  No big deal... though some make a big deal out of that marketing approach.  What got me was this: "You lost me at 150 kWh max charge rate."  Knowing there is so little to actually gain and how in the real-world most people aren't efficient with their time anyway, I had good reason to call that out.  So, I did:  Like the extra time, you won't be missed.  State Of Charge reported the difference between 150 kW and 200 kW, charging from 10% to 80% capacity, to be less than 12 minutes.  Since most DC charging favors the speed benefit from shorter sessions, the difference is notably less.  What people care more about is the guarantee of not having to wait to get a charger and for that charger to work.  Shaving off a few minutes simply is not a priority.  They'll end up using the time for resting & eating anyway.

7-18-2025

The Catch.  This was a wonderful explanation of why EVs in China cost so much less, without even getting into missing safety & emission features: "The catch?  It's built to Chinese domestic specs.  Steering calibration is ultra-light, chassis tuning is floaty, and NVH isolation isn't up to par with a Bolt EUV or Hyundai Kona Electric.  The Seagull isn't tuned for interstate travel at 75 mph.  It was designed for congested cities at 30–50 mph - and that shows in ride feedback and powertrain tuning."  Basic entry-level vehicles here in the United States have vanished.  They were very risky for an automaker to sell, since production was so high and profit so low.  Getting stuck with inventory so poorly equipped meant huge losses.  That's why focus shifted to the larger, well loaded choices instead.  This is why Tesla has avoided anything even remotely resembling a Model 2.  Something lacking so many standard features people have come to expect from Tesla would turn it's market upside-down.  Decontenting has been the approach instead... which isn't working.  Getting a Model Y stripped of features, but still built with expensive components doesn't make sense.  Enthusiasts would never forgive a performance downgrade though.  This is why legacy automakers stand a chance at rising above Tesla.  They know how to offer entry-level choices without compromising in a way that their customers will find unappealing... outside of China.  Within China, Toyota has to take a different approach.  This is why bZ3 isn't ever expected to be offered elsewhere.

7-17-2025

Trust.  This both highlighted the problem and hinted at the opportunity: "It seems fewer people actually research and learn before buying.  The trend right now is to impulse-buy then justify a decision after the sale.  Many car "reviews" are meant to justify or validate these purchase decisions.  Facebook owner groups also are designed to validate this behavior.  Have you noticed this?"  I was all too happy to contribute and quite curious what kind of reply I would get:  It has been that way for decades.  bZ is simply following the same success approach as Prius.  The first generation rolled out in limited markets at limited quantity as a means of studying what would appeal to the masses... those who simply trust Toyota did their homework.  That's why noise from enthusiasts wasn't a top priority.  They are not the intended audience.  You can see that from the 2026 updates.  With so many boxes checked, their narrative has fallen apart.  We are indeed entering that stage where showroom shoppers begin to dominate sales.  They really don't know much about the technology... which is where we come in. Just like with Prius, sharing experiences as owners is far more of draw than any type of advertising Toyota can provide.  Keep posting online.  Sharing stories, photos and videos is priceless for spread of the technology to ordinary consumers.  They appreciate what we share.

7-17-2025

Meme On Wheels.  Seeing comments like this now posted is a true sign of change: "Let's be honest: the Cybertruck was a meme on wheels, not a product.  People didn't buy it because it was useful, they bought it for clout.  And now that the hype has worn off and real ownership reports"  It's hard to believe how much supporters actually relied upon the success of Cybertruck as Tesla's salvation.  Sales from it would trust the automaker forward, enabling the next offering to be equally amazing.  Collapse of interest and no sense of direction for the next step was never considered... despite the fact that looking to the past for insight would have provided guidance about setting expectations.  Nope; instead, it was from hope to hype.  This time, it was even worse.  I pointed out some of that past to be learned from:  History taught us that lesson a decade ago.  GM dealt with the question of "Who is the market for Volt?"  It was also a niche, but the technology itself had a great deal of potential.  GM should have used Volt as a showcase for its advancements related to electric propulsion, promoting use of it in high-volume offerings... like Equinox. Tesla could have done the same thing, leveraging advancements Cybertruck introduced for use in their own high-volume offering... like Model 2.  Reality is, Tesla was using Model 3/Y as a means of building up other business ventures... which should be obvious now... charging hardware & services, energy storage, artificial intelligence, etc.

7-16-2025

Purchase Timing.  We have a rather large local online group.  They hold events to provide the opportunity for ordinary consumers to ask about what we drive.  Those get-togethers are really fun, especially when they are part of something larger (like a Farmer's market).  I learn a lot from the other presenters, more so than the people who come to see the vehicles sometimes.  With such a variety of owners, it's a great opportunity.  There's no requirement for being in that group.  The curious can seek out advice from those with lots of experience.  Sometimes, it's just a simple place to start the research for shopping.  Today, there was such a post.  This was my contribution:  Your timing is interesting.  There is currently a scramble to purchase vehicles still qualifying for the tax-credit prior to the Sept. 30 expiration.  Some EVs now have the new standard NACS port for charging, rather than needing an adopter for the outgoing CCS.  That's important to keep in mind when purchasing a level-2 EVSE for home charging.  And of course, there are always model upgrades being rolled out.  For example, my bZ will get a decent efficiency, range and power increase for 2026.

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