Personal Log  #1321

May 28, 2025  -  June 2, 2025

Last Updated:  Tues. 10/28/2025

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6-02-2025 Terrible?  I thoroughly enjoyed responding to this: "We've got the BZ4x (soon to be just BZ) that's got terrible range, worse charge speeds & a hefty price tag."  I was amused.  Leave it to an enthusiast to be so vague and to draw conclusions for you.  Seeing how absurd the claims would translate into with a bit of facing reality, I let him have it with some difficult to spin questions:

314 miles is terrible?

150 kW is terrible?

338 hp is terrible?

0-60 in 4.9 seconds is terrible?

As for price, it hasn't been revealed yet.  With the North Carolina battery production now available, assumptions based on the past wouldn't make sense.

6-02-2025

Model 2.  Sometimes you have to ask questions and post a few reminders for perspective:  What would be the draw of purchasing a Model 3 when a Model 2 is so much less expensive?  If you're only using it as a roundabout (daily commutes, errand running, random evening drives) and Superchargers are so common & convenient, there's no point.  Lots of families desire the ability to hold on to their old beater (which will tank in value anyway, as cheap BEV become a reality) but still need reliable transport for the kids.  Some of us still remember the 80's, how small cars worked fine for the basics.  Few also remember this paradigm shift Toyota warned about... even a small BEV will grossly outperform a small ICE vehicle, which would turn the market upside-down in terms of selling bigger as better.

6-02-2025

Liberty, North Carolina.  I looked up detail of that location where the new $13.9 Billion construction project Toyota just completed.  Once all 14 lines are running, that production facility will produce up to 30 gigawatt hours, the equivalent of 800,000 hybrid, 150,000 plug-in hybrid, and 300,000 EV batteries.  That is exactly the type of capacity & flexibility antagonists have been complaining about for years.  They claimed Toyota should have had that in place already.  They have since grown completely silent.  Not only is Toyota well positioned for their new battery rollouts, it has also become painfully obvious that "premature lock-in" was indeed a problem avoided by not rushing.  Tesla doesn't know what to do with their 4680 cells, because they didn't deliver improvements to give them the competitive edge that was promised.  How much do you want to bet that in Liberty, North Carolina we'll see the upcoming "bi-polar" cells being produced.  With NiMH chemistry, that new cell packaging has proven its worth.  Waiting to be sure the same is likely to be the case with a Li-Ion variant is exactly what Toyota would need to gain a competitive edge.  This is exactly what enthusiasts hoped Toyota would have delivered years ago.  But you know how impatient they are.  Ugh.

6-02-2025 No Impact.  This was fun to respond to: "An affordable Tesla won't help Tesla's future for the simple reason that something that doesn't exist can't have any impact."  The article was about Tesla denial & shock.  The link had "model 2 chaos" in it.  Needless to say, I was waiting for a post like this one to really dive into the topic of Toyota strategy.  Their preparation for transition is quite comprehension.  Others have basically no plan, still.  Remember how GM promoted their technology with "leap frog" and "game changer" marketing?  There was never any substance.  It was all supposed to magically happen quickly.  Ugh.  I replied back to the obvious absence of history awareness with the most classic of examples:

History has proven the opposite.  Look up "Osborne Effect".  In short, anticipation for a significant improvement causes current sales to plummet.  The business loses so much profit prior to rollout, it results in financial ruin.

There will be a point when a "doesn't exist" has impact.  It could be Tesla.  It could be one of the "all in" automakers.  Caught unprepared, it will hurt.  Talk of chaos is a sign of uncertainty already brewing.

Think about Toyota's strategy of phasing out ICE vehicles.  Having a hybrid base already makes upselling to PHEV a relatively simple process.  It's a bridge for both business & consumer in a market where an entry-level BEV isn't well supported yet.

6-02-2025 Affordable Choices.  I like seeing this topic come up: "Tesla's Affordable EV Denials Sent The Company Into Shock"  Not because I want any struggle for Tesla, it's the topic of affordable choices.  The entire entry-level market here (North America) has been pushed aside, as if it never mattered.  That sentiment of necessity isn't shared though: "It's a great runabout and fine for round trips up to 200 (or a little more) miles but very compromised as a road tripping vehicle."  How will BEV enthusiasts ever get behind small-capacity battery offerings... who's purchase is to reduce cost (and provide a minor efficiency increase from the reduced weight)... if they are constantly insulting shorter range?  Ugh.  Fortunately, most of that rhetoric noise never actually reaches the ears of showroom shoppers.  In return, I posted:

Step back and think about what an ordinary consumer will experience on a test drive... the perspective from a curious showroom shopper.

How would you describe the acceleration & handling of a BEV compared to an ICE?

BEV already offer a huge advantage of cheap refueling.  Adding those aspects of performance, as well as DC fast-charging, make it a compelling purchase decision.

The days of BEV enthusiasts here being their own worst enemy by insisting that long-range capacity is essential are over.

6-02-2025 Owner Data.  I can see the problem of trolling about to get worse.  This one individual keeps reposting the same vague & misleading data over and over.  Sound familiar?  I recognize that as the same fear with the plug-in Prius upgrade.  EPA data was misrepresented relentlessly, a blatant effort to confuse & distract by only posting very specific data.  Avoiding everything else is how you reinforce a narrative to undermine an outcome.  I started creating videos to counter that effort.  Owner data is a powerful tool.  Sharing the experiences of others is effective too.  So, I did.  This was information from a vacation report an owner had shared:

Cherry picking is the exclusion of other data to perpetuate a narrative.  Source doesn't matter, since the intent is to mislead through omission. You just dismissed other data.

Here's more, a post today on Reddit from an owner on a road trip.

* Leg 1: 96% -> 29% over 147 miles.
* Charge 1: 29% -> 75% in 23 minutes. (EVgo extend, so no discount)
* Leg 2: 75% -> 37% over 76 miles.

Calculation of Leg 1 for full capacity comes to over 216 miles.
Calculation of Leg 2 for full capacity comes to over 200 miles.

That is not a standardized test results for the sake of comparison.  That is the real thing, an actual owner on an actual trip... and the results are well above your cherry picked data.

6-01-2025 Vindication.  His response to me posting an unbiased source that strives to deliver a great deal of data in a transparent manner started with this: "So, you agree they launched an uncompetitive car and need to fix it.  Got it."  Then he went on to dismiss that source and repost the same old rhetoric yet again.  Vindication like that is awesome.  He's got nothing!  It's quite clear how desperate he is at this point.  I recognized that pattern of fear and posted:

Cherry picking is confirmation that you don't recognize needs of the target market.  Additional confirmation is claiming it was uncompetitive.

Toyota followed the very same rollout approach as they did with Prius, which became a huge success by understanding cherry picking.  That same history pattern is easy to see playing out again.

Enthusiast publications haven't ever represented what ordinary consumers seek.  Know your audience.

I see you posting 75 mph test results and laugh every time.  Most people here understand that road trips are rare.  Among them, many are aware that most states in the US have a speed limit of 70 mph.  That's why I sighted a credible source which focused on that as a top speed instead, an effort to be objective.

Most driving is a mix highway & suburb with a small amount of urban.  That's where bZ shines... and you know it.  Fear of reviews highlighting everyday efficiency clearly scares you.  Each time you post the cherry-picked data confirms it.  Seeing that is quite vindicating.

5-31-2025 Reviews.  Not sure what "OG" refers to, but purpose was clear: "The OG bz only got 160 miles in car and driver's standard highway range test and the RZ did even worse at 120 and 140 miles in 2 tests.  The RZ had the worst miss vs EPA of anything they tested that year.  Real world unbiased range test by someone like Car and Driver is needed."  It was the same old nonsense.  He found a single source to support his effort to undermine and dismisses everything else.  Ugh.  I fired back with:  FUD attempts have become so far beyond desperate, they are now comical.  It's the same old cherry-picked data every time, no detail, no link.  Anyone with a brain will simply look up the results from source striving to promote EVs instead, where you get lots of detail... like Out Of Spec, who's 70 mph range test for the AWD model delivered.

212 miles

3.0 mi/kWh

Continued dismissal of reviews from others and real-world data from owners is tells us a story of fear.  You're scared Toyota's improvements for 2026 will be very difficult to misrepresent.  Keep reposting the same old nonsense.  Everyone is watching.

5-31-2025 Slowest & Worst.  This is another one of those cookie-cutter rhetoric posts: "Toyota and Lexus are going to have do a lot more than the mildly updated BZ, RZ, and ES to have a chance competing against the onslaught of new EVs that are actually worth buying.  Their EVs are the slowest charging, worst looking, and among the lowest efficiency vehicles you can buy in the class."  It's boiler-plate antagonism, vague & conclusive.  Since most of that nonsense will never be heard be mainstream shoppers, I like to point out their enthusiast noise won't be heard by asking about audience:

Who are you trying to convince?  Shoppers are well aware of the continuous improvement approach Toyota has earned their strong reputation from.  So saying "mildly" means nothing.

As for slowest charging, it's a tough sell claiming that about 150 kW, especially with the smaller battery-pack options rolling out.  Keep in mind, the new bZ will have pre-conditioning.   That provides a huge improvement.

As for lowest efficiency, treating your audience like idiots isn't a wise move.  They see right through rhetoric of the past misrepresenting range as a measure of efficiency.  They now recognize what mi/kWh indicates.  They see the current bZ easily achieving 4 mi/kWh in daily summer driving.  The 2026 upgrade will deliver a next-gen motor & inverter for increased efficiency.

5-29-2025

Acronyms.  Gotta like when someone gets so mixed up, their messaging becomes a confused mess.  That's easy to do when you don't pay close attention to the acronyms being used.  For example: "I don't think lobbying against EV adoption, calling hybrids that do not even plug in "EVs" and coining PZEV acronyms for non-hybrids deserves praise."  I try to include the spelled out words, since antagonists can contribute to confusion when the spot the opportunity.  There are also times when I capitalize on the chance to use a reply as a teaching moment, like I did with this:  PZEV was created by CARB, not Toyota.  It was the next category higher than SULEV, which was also from CARB.  They are certification ratings.  The other acronyms... HEV, PHEV, FCEV, BEV... are industry labels.  The fact that BEV owners have claimed EV for their use exclusively is the real problem.

5-29-2025 Enough?  I liked seeing this: "The question now is, are they going to make enough of these?"  It was an easy reply & ask:

Wait for the new battery production plant in North Carolina, along with rollout of the new RAV4, made sense.  Toyota saw no reason to get ahead of the booming PHEV market knowing that troubled times for BEV were just around the corner.  They need stable profit from their volume leader too, RAV4.

It's pretty obvious now with tariffs, delayed NEVI, uncertainty from NACS support, and the chaos from Tesla's fallout.  Warning signs were there, though many refused to accept the industry to stumble.  Fortunately, it meant Toyota's slower pace could have a nice payoff.

Of course, with 7 models of BEV intended for the US, making "enough" may only be a subjective assessment.  What volume are you hoping for?

5-28-2025

Shame.  Sometimes, you need to fire back with an expression of shame.  This was such a moment: "I'm an American and I don't need it, right now or later."  That's such an extreme change, I'm actually rather disheartened.  Once upon a time, we were proud to be innovative.  Change was a challenge we readily accepted.  Now, it's the complete opposite.  We have become lazy and found countless excuses to justify it.  Think of how the next generation will look at such blatant efforts to evade taking any responsibility.  This is how I stated that:  When did being American stop meaning a show of leadership?  It's quite saddening to watch new employment opportunity lost from being proud holding on to the past.  Oil is a limited resource and your children will wonder why such an obvious solution to was shunned.

5-28-2025

Fossil Rant.  I haven't actually seen many anti-EV posts anymore.  Their numbers are fading.  Today, we got: "For all of you pretending that BEVs are the "answer" to GLOBAL climate change you are sadly mistaken.  As long as the electricity you are getting for you EV is wholly or partly from fossil fuels (still around 60% in the USA) your BEV isn't as "Carbon Positive" as you believe."  That was simple to rebut:  Time will change the equation.  Sodium-Ion batteries are heavy & low-density, but they are much more resistant to both cold & heat and much less expensive than lithium-ion.  That will make them an excellent counterpart to home solar.  We're already seeing a boom in commercially provided solar & wind too.  And as coal plants get retired, that BEV (which is already more energy efficient than burning gas) will become even cleaner.

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