Personal Log  #1281

May 11, 2024  -  May 17, 2024

Last Updated:  Sun. 11/03/2024

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5-17-2024

Unsold Teslas.  This was a stirring comment about the growing inventory problem: "Notice - we do not judge the actual product, but the man."  What kind of nonsense is that?  It came about due to the uncertainty about Tesla ever offering something in the entry-level category.  Rather than focus on affordable choices, attention is shifting to self-driving taxi service.  Those vehicles will supposedly be Tesla's future now.  Remember the insanity of the 20-million-per-year goal?  It was void of any logic.  What would be sold in high enough volume to achieve such numbers?  For that matter, who would be buying them?  With Cybertruck being the highlight of such absurdity, the idea of "the man" making any difference at all impossible.  Tesla has driven off the cliff.  Look no further than Hertz selling off a large portion of their Tesla rental vehicles for confirmation of lost direction.  What exactly is the purpose at this point?  Sales seem to be an afterthought.  Ugh.  I walked away from today's pointless argument with:  That is utter nonsense.  Judgment has been on product, some just refused to listen.  There is a large chunk of the population who would consider an EV that was actually affordable.  This is why GM targeted "nicely under $30,000" all those years ago.  Focus on speed & range was an appeal to want, not need.  We all know build-up of infrastructure... having DCFC commonly available like in Norway... alleviates anxiety.  There's simply no need for massive battery-packs when recharging becomes convenient.  That is a product issue.

5-16-2024

How Much Battery?  Research for those looking into the purchase of the previous generation Prius Prime is nice to see.  I have answered a number of questions recently.  Clearly, they are stirring people's interest.  Wanting to know more about the battery is a challenging topic.  There really isn't much available.  In fact, it's history that could easily get lost or distorted.  Look at how much of an uncertainty Volt has become.  Misstated facts go unchecked.  It turns into a mess.  Fortunately, some still ask questions.  Toyota's design stood the test of time.  That helps.  I added to some of that today by sharing detail which may otherwise be lost to this new audience:  Usable EV portion for the gen-2 plug-in Prius is from 14% to 84%.  That's 70% of the usable 8.79 kWh pack.  Of course, some of the HV portion of the pack may be recovered via plug too.  That puts the "full" charge around 6.25 kWh.

5-15-2024

Messaging.  It's getting better!  We finally got something that actually focus on consumption of electricity rather than how far you can drive per charge: ""...is estimated at 118 MPGe or about 286 watt-hours per mile (3.5 miles/kWh), one of the best results among EVs on the market.  119 MPGe rating for bZ4X, yet messaging was that it got "poor efficiency".  That was long overdue.  It came from an article detailing the new Kona EV.  Seeing so many reviews in the past claiming efficiency was low since range was so low put our society on the edge of stupidity.  That was the equivalent of saying a vehicle got great MPG because the gas tank was so large.  Ugh.  Squeezing more battery-capacity in doesn't mean a vehicle will get a higher MPGe rating.  Anywho, it was nice to be able to contribute to something intelligent for a change:  I have the AWD model with the 20" wheels, which translates to an efficiency hit.  My observed real-world efficiency for daily driving is 4.5 mi/kWh.  On summer road trips, I get 3.5 mi/kWh.  It will be nice to find out what Kona owners observe.  With regard to messaging though...

5-15-2024

New Opportunities.  Projects suddenly facing uncertainty are abruptly getting rethinks.  Evidence of that is available if you seek it out, despite only a short time having passed.  Enthusiasts draw conclusions quickly, doing everything they can to ensure whatever they convey reinforces their narrative.  Ugh.  In this case, Tesla made a huge mistake but there supposedly won't be any fallout.  Really?  How can you fire an entire department and not expect any of that staff to feel unneeded and to ever have a sense of job security upon getting rehired?  Experts will seek opportunity elsewhere.  Those make decisions about land & hardware acquisition will see latitude previously unavailable.  Maneuvering a complex maze of approvals can get easier when there's an industry shakeup too.  Long story short, I had found a rebuttal with very little searching and was happy to post it:  It's quite telling to get a what-about and ha-ha rather than a reply to the topic.  Turns out, there has indeed been "no big manufacturers have capitalized on any mistakes Tesla".  The recent layoffs has reinforced EVgo efforts to deliver NACS support this year.  Since SAE-J3400 is now a standard, access to the Tesla Supercharger network is not necessary for hardware rollout by other manufacturers.

5-15-2024 Supercharger Layoffs, observations.  This is what I had to say about the situation, on the private group for bZ4X owners:

I learned looooong ago that executive decisions from another automaker can have a profound impact on what Toyota does... hence some of their wait & see approach.  It simply makes no sense getting caught up in their nonsense.  Tesla recent layoffs is a perfect example of that. Musk's emotion-driven decisions mimic what we saw from GM in the past with Lutz and now with Barra.

bZ4X would be expensive.  We were told that long before rollout.  Toyota did not want to play the loss-leader game.  Struggling with sales of vehicles losing money for the first few years wasn't worth it, especially with so much uncertainty still... especially related to DC fast-charging.  If fact, that was why DC speed wasn't deemed a high priority.

Now, we see consequences of those decisions.  The first generation of bZ4X is closely following the first generation of Prius.  Recognizing the history I witnessed back then repeat now is why I don't get all worked up about what the news is focusing on.  Follow up on new is an entirely different matter.

Supercharger staff getting laid off was confirmation of internal struggle.  Quite unlike Toyota, Tesla had painted itself into a corner.  Tesla was forced to accept massive profit losses and little for other resources to leverage... hence layoffs.

NACS for us as bZ4X owners is still a big deal.  That will remove some of the anxiety people have about range.  Access to Tesla Superchargers isn't necessarily the key to that either.  EVgo will be rolling out their support.  Their support for CHAdeMO connections will be dropped in favor of NACS.

Hope will be that Toyota will just continue with their scheduled rollout to get adapters to us.  Who knows when Tesla will enable their network for Toyota.  Seeing proactive support for NACS, regardless of Supercharger setbacks, will help us as current bZ4X owners.

5-15-2024 Supercharger Layoffs, journalism.  It took 2 weeks for detail to finally be uncovered about what had actually happened and why.  This was the opening of the article revealing what led to that historical moment:

The day before Elon Musk fired virtually all of Tesla's electric-vehicle charging division last month, they had high hopes as charging chief Rebecca Tinucci went to meet with Musk about the network's future, four former charging-network staffers told Reuters.

After Tinucci had cut between 15% and 20% of staffers two weeks earlier, part of much wider layoffs, they believed Musk would affirm plans for a massive charging-network expansion.

The meeting could not have gone worse.  Musk, the employees said, was not pleased with Tinucci's presentation and wanted more layoffs.  When she balked, saying deeper cuts would undermine charging-business fundamentals, he responded by firing her and her entire 500-member team.

The departures have upended a network widely viewed as a signature Tesla achievement and a key driver of its EV sales...

5-14-2024

5 mi/kWh.  Without even trying, I hit that magic efficiency level.  It actually caught me off guard.  I wasn't expecting the warm-temperature effect yet.  It's still spring.  But when the vehicle is parked outside, any aspect of cold vanishes.  Temperature of the battery-pack can easily get to the goldilocks level just parked in the sun.  That optimal operating condition is soooo nice.  It actually catches me off guard though.  My commute consumption drops from 7 kWh for each direction to 5 kWh.  I hadn't realized that math to get the most from a charging session while at work had become second nature.  I would sometimes go several days between charges, thinking it would be starting at a lower battery-level.  Oh well.  That's great to be getting better efficiency than anticipated.

5-14-2024

Only Needs The Workers.  I couldn't believe an industry expert, who had become bias in favor of Tesla, ended up saying this: "A company needs it's workers it does not need a head of production to ramp up production once it's done, it only needs the workers to do it."  His changed perspective was understandable prior to that.  He was focused on process, seeking out the most cost-effective means of serving the masses.  Along the way though, he forgot what that meant.  It's a specialization trap.  Market adaptation requires flexibility.  That's why Toyota gets so much grief; their process is designed to analyze & adjust along the way.  The act of "ramping up" requires decision making.  How should the technology be delivered?  Remember the lesson learned from the CARB mandate 20 years ago?  It was to focus on outcome, not the means of achieving it.  If platform or fuel must change, so be it.  I responded to the discussion failing to recognize leadership need with:  Failing to recognize history is a big problem.  No one brings up GM having done the same thing with the launch of Volt.  Project leadership was no longer there.  Initial launch shortcomings were not addressed as a result.  GM struggled to appeal to anyone beyond enthusiasts.  The result was only conquest sales, never growing to a larger audience.  Tesla is following that same path.  Some of the technology in Cybertruck will simply due to the absence of anyone to champion reinvestment onto a platform better for the masses.  Notice GM rethinking that mistake now?

5-13-2024

Volt is Better.  Their nonsense continues.  Someone from GM will always troll positive articles about Toyota.  In the past, it was showing favor for Volt.  Until recently, it was for Bolt.  That changed with the realization of plug-in hybrids from GM making a comeback.  Unfortunately, enthusiasts romanticized the ownership experience.  They focused on speed & handling with complete disregard for its intended purpose... improved efficiency.  That's because Volt efficiency wasn't impressive.  In fact, it paled in comparison to Toyota... hence the dislike for Toyota.  Failing to "leap frog" really hurt.  Their "game changer" never actually changed anything.  Who knows if any of that history will be relevant though or if anyone will care.  What will again be important is efficiency.  So, I reminded them of that:  Volt wasn't as efficient in either EV mode (electricity = mi/kWh) or HV mode (gas = mpg).  That's a big advantage for Prius Prime when it comes to operating cost.  Also, Prius Prime has a heat-pump rather than Volt only having a resistance heater.

5-13-2024

12-Volt Problems.  We have yet to find an instance of a mysterious "cannot start" problem that wasn't related to the recall.  Unfortunately, most people have no idea what to look for.  In response to today's post, I pointed that odds were their 12-volt went bad.  I followed that by asking when the vehicle was produced.  This was the reply: "She was one of the first."  Bingo!  Pattern confirmed.  Suspecting that common fallout complication caused by the recall from hearing about starting issues 3 times, combined with that info was all I needed.  This is what I was able to then share about that situation:  That meant is sat idle waiting for the recall.  Parked unused for several months will damage a lead-acid battery. From being depleted entirely, corrosion will build up on the plates inside.  That reduces overall voltage output.  Having the tow-truck person or Toyota check how many volts it delivers will provide its health status.  (If you have an ODB-II reader, you can do the check yourself.)  Too low, it needs to be replaced... under warranty, hopefully.

5-12-2024

Setting Expectations.  Here we go again.  Warm weather brings about much higher range estimates.  That confuses those who haven't been paying close attention and frustrates those that are well informed.  It's the same old story.  Whether you plug in or not makes no difference.  Cold equates to less.  Warmer increases the value, but still falls short of real-world results.  Not recognizing the complexities of measurement and how much results will vary really makes setting expectations a challenge.  We do our best to take advantage of teaching moments though, trying to help enlighten those feeling let down.  Today, I shared:  We have been dealing with this same problem related to estimates for decades, all 3 major measurement systems... EPA in the North America, WLTP in Europe, and CLTC in China.  It gets compounded when each new owner observes differences but fails to associate that with their own driving outcome.  Sadly, that's the way the market has operated for so long, many never come to recognize their assumption of what those numbers meant was incorrect.

5-11-2024 80 Percent Charging.  This topic is getting messy.  That's to be expected as newbies join the discussion and outdated information gets even more outdated.  People hear about stopping at 80% but have no idea why.  Advice gets passed along as hearsay, without any means of validating it.  Thankfully, some ask for more information.  I'm all too happy to help, especially when it gets complicated.  Here's what I shared:

There are actually 2 rules for 80%

#1 is for longevity.  With EVs of the past, you were instructed to stop at 80% for the benefit if not straining the battery.  With our system, that's managed automatically.  So, going to 100% won't have any impact.

#2 is for curiosity.  At a DC fast-charger, you'll see speed slow down significantly as 80% is reached.  So for the sake of others waiting, it's best to stop then.

5-11-2024

Spreading Fear.  When you see this, take action: "You all EV owners this is a warning."  It was buried within what was an troll attack.  She pointed out how gas prices are set to sore and how we will have to deal with getting unplugged and cut cords.  The opposite is what will happen.  When oil supply gets too high, we see price drops.  As for unplugging, that simply isn't possible when you enable the cord lock.  Anywho, this closing remark is what really stirred me: "As gas prices rise they're going to cling even harder to their beliefs and their beloved rumbly exhaust.  Change frightens people.  This might actually become dangerous."  Presented as sound wisdom, the obvious absence of advice revealed true purpose.  I pointed that out too:  Since that reply doesn't provide any type of what-to-do-about-it suggestion, it is just spreading FUD.  The reason change usually frightens people is because they are uncertain what it means to them.  Doing things like pointing out proposed charger builds in their area and rebates available for new & used purchases will go a long way toward calming those who are frightened.

5-11-2024 Illogical & Irrational.  It was strange.  The reply I got to my math post was an argument that didn't make sense for casinos & motels.  That was fine, but the way he ended it wasn't: "Problem here is you don't OWN an EV therefore you are reaching with silly irrational comparisons."  I saw that as reason to take offense.  So, I grabbed the ball and ran with it:

The logic is sound.  Your overlook is there are 2 fundamentally different types of free charger.

The first is exactly what I highlighted, a quick stop opportunity charge.  That is most often what gets complained about by ICE owners, since those spots are commonly right by the business entrance.

The second is quite the opposite, located in some far away section of the lot intended for long-term parking.  Destination chargers at motels for overnight use are a great example of that.  Their purpose is to attract EV drivers who would otherwise go elsewhere for their stay.

There simply is no way to manage free gas for an overnight stay.  A charger providing a steady 6kW flow can be predicted & controlled, a business expense like a coupon.  Gas doesn't work that way. Some people drive guzzlers with large tanks.  Overnight (10 hours) the EV will pull around $4 worth of electricity.  A coupon for $4 off a gas purchase wouldn't be much of a incentive to stay there.

 

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